How Atwoli-led Bukhungu II defies Western vote status quo

COTU Secretary-general Francis Atwoli was in the company of the area elected and nominated leaders when they toured Bukhungu stadium to assess preparedness to host Bukhungu 2 meeting on December 31. [Mumo Munuve, Standard]

Early this month, the Central Organisation of Trade Unions (Cotu) Secretary-General Francis Atwoli said that he’s convening the second Bukhungu conference (Bukhungu II) on December 31, 2021, to chart the way forward for the Luhya nation ahead of the 2022 general election.

The move should trouble ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford-Kenya’s Moses Wetangula. Mudavadi was installed as Luhya community’s spokesperson during the Atwoli convened Bukhungu I in 2016, ahead of the 2017 general election.

While Mudavadi feigns political strength, it’s indubitable that Atwoli has become a ruling spirit of the western region politics.

Chief negotiator

It’s the Luhya leaders who mandated the COTU Secretary-General to be their chief negotiator on October 10, 2021. The consultative meeting was attended by governors who resolved that they won’t “entertain any leader who would not work with other leaders in forming the next government.” By then, it was apparent that they knew which leader they were talking about.

Later in mid-December 2021, the Bukusu council of elders beseeched Mudavadi and Wetangula to back Raila Odinga for 2022. Was this a coincidence? I don’t think. This is because the Luhya Elders Forum chairperson Patrick Wangamati, the governor for Bungoma, led them.

But, importantly, the Bukusu tribe accounts for 34 per cent, the most significant percentage, of the 17 tribes of the Luhya community. So, the Bukusu elders’ decision can’t be underrated in 2022.

 Political firework

Another political firework shot up on December 14, 2021, when DAP-K Party flagged off at Bomas of Kenya. Eugine Wamalwa’s DAP-K party aims to unify the western leadership. Methinks it could fling Mudavadi and Wetangula into political oblivion. Why do I say so?

During the DAP-K Party launch, all and sundry made it clear that they were boarding Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja. The DAP-K party’s timing is critical to the Bukhungu declaration of December 31, where Atwoli is calling all leaders from the Luhya community to convene for a political crossfire.

Thus, what remains for Mudavadi and Wetangula is to consolidate the Luhya nation’s political greenhorns and attempt a coup against the more experienced ones whom Atwoli has flashed into Raila Odinga’s 2022 vote basket. However, given that the same Atwoli authenticated Mudavadi as their leader in December 2016, it will be a task on the hill to convince the Luhya community that now Atwoli’s endorsement is null and void. Therefore, to Mudavadi and co, they must work hard.

 The sleeping giant

The Luhya nation is a sleeping political giant. It’s concentrated within the former Western Province comprising four counties. Together, in the 2022 general election, they’ll be a block of approximately 2.5 million votes. Yet, regardless of their numbers, the Western region has lacked a uniting political factor in Kenya’s multiparty era. Ostensibly, politicians won’t offer any magical wand in the region because of their vested interests and competition.

 Believably, this is the gap that the Atwoli led Bukhungu declarations are filling. The Bukhungu conventions are fashioned in the likeness of the Mount Kenya foundation—consisting of non-politicians, who pilot the politics of the Mt. Kenya region. Whether their influence will endure in future is another debate altogether.

What’s clear is that the Luhya community, which according to the 2019 census, stands at 6.8 million; only second to Kikuyu’s 8.1 in population, don’t enjoy the power of their numbers. Politically, their negotiation power ranks fifth after Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Luo and Kamba. That’s why Luhya community top politicians remain to be mere political touts. Let me explain this.

 In 2013, they were still scattered with Mudavadi on his own to the ballot as Moses Wetangula, and others remained in Raila Odinga’s Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord). Such political dissections birth weak political leaders.

 In 2017, Mudavadi and Wetangula were in NASA. Despite Mudavadi being the key NASA architect, his position and that of Wetangula were dispensable.

Whereas they could have had a louder say considering the Luhya community is the second largest, they had to be satisfied as mere principals.

So politically, the Luhya community is fifth on influence and power. This status quo seems to have stirred Atwoli to regularise Bukhungu declarations ahead of every general election.

Resultantly, the way things are going, all sitting governors are with Atwoli and are supporting Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja.

 Where did it all start? On August 20, 2016, Atwoli convened a fundraiser in Khwisero Girls Secondary School in Kakamega County, where western politicians endorsed Mudavadi as their leader. Atwoli was categorical during this fundraiser that other western region leaders must step down for Mudavadi.

CORD co-principal Moses Wetangula and former Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo were eyeing the presidency. Atwoli promised to convene a grand meeting in Bukhungu Stadium to unveil the Luhya community spokesperson proper.

 Mzee Atwoli didn’t waste a chance during the Bukhungu I convention. Garbed in a white robe, he pulled a sealed briefcase. When it was opened, it contained some bound copies of a booklet. The booklet had the preferred Luhya overall leader and a line-up of preferred governors.

Relying on a survey conducted by the University of Nairobi political science team, Atwoli read the Bukhungu declaration and revealed that the poll had Hon. Musalia Mudavadi as a preferred candidate at 39 per cent of respondents. Oparanya and Wetangula tied at second position with 30 per cent each, and others at 1 per cent. Thus, Musalia Mudavadi it was!

 After the 2017 general election, only Bungoma and Vihiga counties defied Bukhungu I line-up.

Dr Wycliffe Wafula Wangamati and Wilber Khasilwa Ottichilo won the 2017 Bungoma and Vihiga gubernatorial seats, respectively. So, the Bukhungu I declaration had a 60 per cent accuracy index.

 Fast-forward to 2021, Atwoli, the Luhya community elect chief negotiator, is convoking the Bukhungu II convention, where he plans to give a line-up for 2022 leadership in the western region. Will his oracle surpass that of 2017 come 2022?

He has intimated that leaders will have a chance to speak their minds at the Bukhungu Stadium on December 31, 2021. Afterwards, Atwoli is expected to hold the hand of one of them and tell the Luhya community ‘behold your spokesperson’.

 By this gesture, he’s posturing as a political priest, presumably with a sole mandate of presenting political burnt offerings on behalf of the Luhya community. Notably, Eugene Wamalwa led the DAP-K party to consolidate all pro-Atwoli politicians to support Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja.

 ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi, Senators Moses Wetangula and Cleophas Malala are the top leaders among others, who are radically opposed to Atwoli’s vision, probably because they are relaxed to the presidency of Raila Odinga, who is Atwoli’s pick. Whether they’ll wrestle down Atwoli’s gladiators is yet to be seen.

 Atwoli political influence

Indisputably, Atwoli has become a ruling spirit in the western region. He forages in influencing politics in the region with a passion for a united western vote.

He believes that the erstwhile fragmented Luhya nation can be unified. This isn’t going to be easy. I reckon whoever opposes him will find it harder to have a breakthrough in the region. I could be wrong!

Atwoli must prepare for tough opposition, though. A generation of politicians who’ll lose during the unification will surely revolt. They’ll likely spur their tribes, especially against the majority Bukusu and Maragoli. If Atwoli achieves his vision during the Bukhungu II, the western region will be solidly behind Raila Odinga.

As for Mudavadi and Wetangula, the ground will be softer if the Bukhungu II declaration favours Raila Odinga’s presidency. It’s likely to. Undeniably, all sitting governors in the Luhya community have drunk from the mobilization cup of Mzee Atwoli.

All through, Atwoli has whisked Luhya nation political leaders toward Raila Odinga. He has deliberately defied the western vote status quo. His mission is to present all of them as a wave offering to Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja. Will Atwoli succeed? Time will tell!

 Dr Ndonye is a Lecturer of Communication and Media. @Dr_Mndonye