Of horses and donkeys: Will a third candidate benefit from Ruto-Raila resentment?

As the 2027 General Election draws nearer, there are growing questions about who will emerge victorious.

Many Kenyans have voiced their discontent with the political alliance between President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

While both lead large political outfits with millions of supporters, the current developments in their political camps have sparked significant criticism.

A large segment of the population is calling for a fresh candidate who can reform the government systems. Among the names being floated as potential presidential candidates for the August 2027 elections are former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, former Chief Justice David Maraga, and Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah, who are seen as strong contenders.

Much of the resentment toward the Ruto-Raila partnership comes from the Mt Kenya region, where many feel betrayed after Ruto orchestrated the removal of Rigathi Gachagua as Deputy President.

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Additionally, Gen Z and ordinary taxpayers have been vocal in their criticism of Ruto’s presidency, often airing their grievances on social media. This group, which also feels let down by Raila’s decision to join Ruto’s government, is further disillusioned by the fact that many of Raila’s allies have secured state jobs.

ALSO READ: Why Uhuru and Raila will likely determine Ruto's re-election bid

However, the burning question is whether a third candidate could capitalise on the growing dissatisfaction with the Ruto-Raila pact.

Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, in an interview with The Standard, suggested that the 2027 election will be divided into three categories of aspirants. The first group consists of older politicians with decades of experience; the second includes individuals who are relatively new but have a track record; and the third is made up of fresh political faces with no prior achievements.

“The truth is that many young people want a clean slate and a government that works. Some are pragmatic, acknowledging that no perfect candidate exists, but they’re looking for someone with a proven record,” Onyonka said. “We may not get an angel, but we need someone with a track record. The Ruto-Raila handshake undermines the country’s constitutional framework because it leaves no one to oversee the government, allowing them to act without accountability.”

Political risk analyst Alenga Torosterdt argues that the Ruto-Raila alliance is the most powerful in the current political landscape, especially considering Raila’s large support base, which is expected to shift toward Ruto by default. He believes that other political factions remain disorganized and unable to present a unified front.

“I don't see the Ruto-Raila union creating an opening for a third force,” Torosterdt remarked. “Look at the opposition, with figures like Kalonzo Musioka, Martha Karua, and Eugene Wamalwa—all seem fragmented and lack the coordination to challenge effectively.”

Torosterdt further criticized the Gen Z movement for its lack of organization, leadership, and initiative, suggesting that this could inadvertently benefit the ruling party in securing a second term.

“Politics is about mobilization and organization. The opposition, particularly those not yet part of the government, have a significant opportunity to speak to Kenyans, offer alternative leadership, and organize rallies,” he added.

Dismas Mokua, a political analyst, echoed these sentiments, asserting that former CS Fred Matiang’i is the only candidate who might gain from the resentment surrounding the handshake. Mokua believes that Matiang’i has demonstrated national leadership capabilities and could challenge President Ruto, especially if he secures endorsements from former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga.

ALSO READ: Gachagua: Raila won't help Ruto in 2027 elections

“Dr. Matiang’i’s candidacy could potentially benefit from the public’s discontent with legacy politicians,” Mokua said. “He has demonstrated leadership ability, having been entrusted with critical roles under President Uhuru Kenyatta, such as chairing key cabinet committees.”

Dr. Hesbon Hansen Owilla, a media and political communications researcher, criticized the broad-based government structure, arguing that it has failed to address the real needs of Kenyans. He believes this opens the door for a third candidate to win in 2027, as many Kenyans are tired of the same political faces.

“They’ve accumulated political clout among themselves, but this broad-based approach has largely ignored the needs of ordinary citizens. If this continues, Kenyans will have little reason to re-elect them in 2027,” Owilla said. “The question then becomes: who will step in to lead?”

Owilla also dismissed Rigathi Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka as viable options, as both are seen as part of the existing political establishment.

“If anything, Gachagua is part of the problem. He supported this regime, so aligning with him would likely lead to rejection,” he said.

Although Owilla does not see Matiang’i as the ideal candidate, he acknowledges that he may be the best and only option available to Kenyans. “Despite criticisms, Matiang’i has a solid track record of performance,” Owilla argued. “While every politician has skeletons in their closet, Matiang’i has distinguished himself as someone who delivers results.”

In conclusion, while many politicians have a checkered past, Owilla pointed out that voters are still willing to support leaders with strong performance records, as was evident in the 2022 elections when, despite allegations of corruption, President Ruto won the election.