Has William Ruto lost the mountain?

Pundits say that whether Gachagua is shown the door or not, President Ruto has lost a huge chunk of his Mt Kenya political support for good. [File, Standard]

The widespread anger expressed in parts of the country during the two days of public participation hearings on the impeachment motion against Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua paints an uncertain future for President William Ruto’s administration.

The barrage of criticism directed at the government mostly from two of his core support bases of Mt Kenya and parts of Rift Valley, for its alleged failure to deliver its promises to the people, exposed the restive underbelly of Ruto’s political bastions in the previous General Election.

On Friday and Saturday, angry members of the public turned the hearings into a referendum on government performance and demanded that impeachment must target both; the president and his deputy.

As the impeachment motion is discussed tomorrow (Tuesday), all eyes will be on the President, who has been accused by Gachagua’s backyard of Mt Kenya, of masterminding the motion to hound his deputy out of office.

A former Molo MP and chairman of Jubilee Party Council of elders, Njenga Mungai, did not mince his words  saying the country has other urgent matters that need solving. He  called on Gachagua to resign saying he had been set up from the beginning.

“I ask you as your elder and a friend, resign, hand over your resignation letter to the President and the Speaker of the National Assembly. Walk away, as an elder, walk away with dignity. Let the impeachment die prematurely,’’ Mungai advised the DP. 

He added: “You have a solution in your hands. You do not have to ask the President to stop the impeachment, everything is in your court. Resign, you have a triumph card.” 

Mungai noted that  the problem facing Gachagua and the Mt Kenya region was self-inflicting due to poor political decisions. 

“During Mwai Kibaki's presidency we had our own political party as Mt Kenya people, during Uhuru Kenyatta’s regime, we had a political party that served our interests. To have a political party that unites us is not tribalism. We must have our own political party,” he said. 

Mungai pleaded with President Ruto to stop the impeachment, saying it will open the door to many problems in the country.

Pundits say that whether Gachagua is shown the door or not, President Ruto has lost a huge chunk of his Mt Kenya political support for good. He must now work with his new-found friends through to 2027 polls.

“It is going to be very interesting in the coming years. Because what will happen if Raila Odinga does not win the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship?” posed Gitile Naituli, a professor of management and leadership at Multimedia University of Kenya.

Prof Naituli said it is important to note that the Nyanza region warmed up to Ruto following the prospect of Raila getting the AUC chair job. 

Gachagua has already assembled a battery of 20 top lawyers led by Senior Counsel Paul Muite to defend him at the impeachment hearing in Parliament.

The motion has caused political tremors in the Mt Kenya region, Gachagua’s backyard.

On Friday and Saturday public participation forums turned into displays of fury against the presidency.

Some observers argue that Gachagua is the man of the moment in the Mt Kenya region, and whichever the outcome of the motion, President Ruto will have his goose cooked in the region.

Commentators contend that the President can call a truce with his deputy to calm the country’s rising political temperatures or engage in a full-throttle battle with Gachagua to remove him from office.

Whatever options the President takes, pundits argue, it will be costly for him in trying to manage the backlash of his duel with Gachagua in the Mt Kenya region, where their conflict has the effect of catapulting the DP to the position of regional kingpin.

With his eye on the 2027 re-elections, political analysts contend that the President will be walking on a slippery path in the mountain region, with an imminent danger of sliding over the cliff to his political destruction.

Political commentator Kabue Mathenge said whereas the conflict between Ruto and Gachagua was a poisoned chalice for the President, it has set Mt Kenya region free to chart its political destiny.

“In the previous election, Mt Kenya settled the political debt owed to the Luo community when a section of its members supported Raila’s presidential bid while the another section settled the debt owed to the Kalenjin community by supporting Ruto’s bid,” Mathenge observed.

The commentator said with two political debts paid, the Mt Kenya region is poised to play a pivotal role in the country’s political arena come 2027, to the detriment of President Ruto, who would have lost a substantial portion of the support base.

“Mt Kenya now has been set free to chart its political destiny and explore the possibility of forging alliances with other friendly regions without being bogged down by the issue of unsettled political debts,” Mathenge added.

Political commentator Andrew Nyabuto said Mt Kenya residents “have perceived President Ruto’s ominous hand in Gachagua’s impeachment plot, and this will have far-reaching consequences in his voting hunting expedition in the region come 2027.”

Nyabuto added that many Mt Kenya residents who had solidly voted for Ruto in the past election had lost trust in him “as he has drawn his sword at a very early stage of his presidency.”

Nyabuto added that President Ruto’s action “had sent political ripples across the entire Mt Kenya region, which solidly backed his presidential bid. It will be difficult for the voters in Mt Kenya region to rally behind him as they did in the previous election.”

He said that if Ruto was to strike a truce with Gachagua or the impeachment motion failed, the Ruto presidency would still suffer irreparable political damage before 2027.

Nyabuto said the Nyanza base, under Raila’s stewardship, was not sufficient to replace the Mt Kenya base.

“Without Raila on the ballot, there will be voter apathy in Nyanza region, which will work against Ruto, while voters in Mt Kenya region are likely to maintain their historical trend of turning out in large numbers in elections to defend and protect their political interests,” Nyabuto observed.

He added that if Gachagua survives the impeachment motion, he will pull the rug from under Ruto’s feet in Mt Kenya as he continues to be a thorn in his flesh.

“If Gachagua survives the impeachment, he will boldly attack the President and MPs from Mt Kenya, who will have participated in his ouster. He will also manage to galvanise Mt Kenya behind him, and this will spell doom for Ruto in his bid to seek the region’s support ahead of his re-election,” Nyabuto said.

Harold Kipchumba, a former ODM nominated senator, said it was apparent to Kenyans that “things have fallen apart in the Kenya Kwanza administration, and President Ruto will be confronted with a compounded problem once the impeachment motion sails through the Senate’’.

“At the same time, Ruto is battling for political survival as other parts of the country are disgruntled with his economic management, rising cost of living, and collapsing health and education systems,” Kipchumba said.

The political commentator said the anger expressed against the government in forums held in Ruto’s backyard of Keiyo Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, and Kericho counties shows that he will face a significant political problem in his re-election bid in 2027.

The former senator added that if Gachagua is pushed out of office, he has the capacity to undermine the President in the Mt Kenya region and ensure Ruto loses support.

Another political commentator, Cleopas Isiaho, said if President Ruto parted ways with Gachagua, his re-election bid would be thrown into disarray as he could not easily replace the lost votes from the Mt Kenya region.

“Although the President is working closely with Raila, it is obvious that the Nyanza region has a history of low voter turnout, and it will be worse without Raila on the ballot,” Isiaho said.

Isiaho said Ruto had yet to galvanise tremendous support in Raila’s bedrock of Kakamega, Busia, and Vihiga counties.

“Unless a person from the Luhya community is named as President Ruto’s running mate in the 2027 elections, it is very unlikely that he will get massive support from these counties,” Mr Isiaho said.

He added that Kenyans were waiting to see what would happen to Raila if he lost his AUC chairperson bid.

“Is there a possibility for Raila to return to the political scene, and what role will he play ahead of the 2027 polls? This is something that Kenyans wait to see as political events continue to unfold.’’