Raila's complicated relationship with democracy, political reforms

Opposition Leader Raila Odinga addresses the media after the signing of IEBC bill that was developed from NADCO report into law by President William Ruto.  [Denish Ochieng, Standard]

Love him or hate him, opposition leader Raila Odinga has carved his place in Kenya's history as a maker or breaker of the constitution.

Raila seems to have perfected the art of interpreting the Constitution and determining when it needs to be repaired or to be completely overhauled.

He has tasted the wrath of brutal state agents for sticking out his neck  He sacrificed eight years of his prime life for agitating for reforms after he was detained during the fight for multiparty in 1980s  

Raila has mastered the game of politics, which has attracted applause and criticism in equal measure.

Although he has won friends and foes over his style of agitating for change, questions have emerged about his motivation for advancing democracy with skeptics faulting him for scheming to benefit while his admirers praise him for his selflessness.

Raila has on several occasions benefited from political crises that would have otherwise shredded the political careers of any other veteran politicians, enabling him to waltz in and out of government at will despite losing five elections

For weeks, when unarmed youthful protesters took to the streets facing off with the police as some mocked Raila and others urged him to remain at home, the veteran politician bidden his time.

He appeared confused on whether to back the dialogue he was invited to participate in by President William Ruto and join ranks with the protestors who were demanding total overhaul of the government and the resignation of the head of state.

At one time, he supported a national dialogue but later changed his mind and issued a string of demands , he wanted met before he could proceed to the negotiation table.

Just after senior Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leaders were nominated to Cabinet, Raila clarified his stance saying that neither the ODM nor Azimio coalition entered into any coalition agreement with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party.

“We had anticipated the crafting of clear terms of engagement based on issues we raised in our various communiques. While we extend our best wishes to the nominees and trust that they will contribute positively to national development, we continue to advocate for a national engagement under the conditions we have previously outlined,” Raila said.

Raila has run for the presidency five times, his first attempt being in 1997 then 2007, 2013, 2017, and the most recent 2022.

This was uncharacteristic of Raila who has in the past dealt brutally with any ODM member who rebelled by joining the government.

In ODM, there has been an unwritten rule that if one joins government without Raila he is a traitor but when the party leader does the same he is praised as messianic.

A similar script is now playing out and much as he says that the ODM members nominated to Cabinet neither ODM nor Azimio coalition entered into any coalition agreement with UDA party.

Veteran politician, Njeru Gathangu said the little he knows about Raila is that he is committed to the country but wants to operate within his own freedoms and rights and is happy to join the system when opportunity presents itself.

 “He is not like some of us who want to see clean plans, clean change and overhaul. But I remember he has done it several times. He has done it with the late President Daniel Moi. In fact, at that time we were fighting Moi when Raila decided to join him and become the Secretary-General,” Gathangu explained.

 “And he kicked out former MP Joseph Kamatho, the favoured Kamado. And then after that, of course, many things happened but he later on also decided to join Kibaki. And we also know what happened and so forth and so forth. And he joined Uhuru. And we also know what happened. Now he is joining Ruto. I'm not sure what will happen,” he added.

In ODM, there has been an unwritten rule that if one joins government without Raila he is a traitor but when the party leader does the same he is praised as messianic.

 With Raila’s moves over the years, Kathangu said that a distinct personal trait play out, that he likes power, which he described as unfortunate.

 According to Kathangu this should be the time that Raila’s purity is supposed to be seen in his political life and should be perfecting it for the next generation but he is almost abandoning this role.

 “I'm not sure what will happen, but there is something that comes out as a trait. A personal trait, and it is that actually, Raila likes power. And when he smells it or sniffs it, I think he forgets everything else about the struggle. Which for me is a bit unfortunate. And particularly now coming at his age because this is the time he is supposed to be actualizing politically,” Gathangu noted.

He urged Raila to be cautious of his actions, especially now that Gen Z are on the streets, and each one of them will be borrowing a leaf from him or dismissing him but should consider himself as an elder and a statesman and take care of his future. He also said there may not be anything major that Ruto could expect from Raila, given that he has been dismissing him all along.

Kathangu opined that Ruto could possibly be happy to see the leader of opposition joining him when the whole country is up in arms against him, which could imply that he has fallen into his trap. “Ruto has been dismissing him. You know, all the time of his campaigns and up to last week but one you know, like you are chasing a rabbit and it appears to be missing the way. And the hunter usually is very happy when the rabbit comes to that end, dead end. It becomes prey to the hunter,” he stated.

Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) party leader Eugene Wamalwa called for the need to stand firm in critical decisions, saying they will not compromise their values,morals and principles. "Our position as Azimio is to stand with the people and will not accept positions from the failed Kenya Kwanza regime.

Any of our Azimio colleagues choosing to swim with the Kenya Kwanza current will do so on their own but we shall remain rock-steady with the Gen Zs, Millenials and majority of the People of Kenya who are saying aluta continua!" said Wamalwa on his X account.

Lawyer  Ekuru Aukot observed: "The political merchant Raila Odinga has also thrown his political brother, Uhuru Kenyatta, under the bus with his henchmen joining the sinking ship? Why should anyone be surprised when Kenya is just but shamba for greedy politicians?The Gen Z revolution must be televised loudly. We must take back our country."
Siaya Governor, James Orengoa said that taking Cabinet Secretaries position in the name of ODM betrays the principles of the Constitution and the progressive movement which the party represents.

According to Orengo, "It's absolute treachery and an act of political cannibalism. Even hyenas are not as bloodthirsty to eat the dead,"

In 1997, Raila broke ranks with the opposition which had driven the Kanu government into a corner. After highly contested presidential elections where the united opposition wanted to oust President Daniel Arap Moi, the NDP leader went for a merger of NDP and the ruling party.

After joining Kanu, he was appointed Energy Minister and rose in Kanu to be the Secretary-General but he bolted out with his supporters after he was not named as the party's presidential candidate, dealing a mortal blow that cost the independence party the presidency.

Although Raila left Kanu in March, months before the elections, he joined the fractured opposition and carved a niche for himself to earn his a slot for himself and few other allies in the National Rainbow Coalition government led by Mwai Kibaki.

A disagreement over a secret memorandum of Understanding with Kibaki brewed a rebel that snowballed into a referendum where Kibaki lost his bid to rewrite the constitution.

This marked the birth of ODM and the death of the old constitution which Raila would have a say when it was finally drafted and promulgated in 2010. The referendum gifted Raila a party and leverage against Kibaki which was instrumental when he was negotiating a share of cabinet slots in 2008.

In 2007, he tried his presidential bid for the second time and much as provisional results put him at a comfortable lead, but there was a drastic turn around and his competitor, Kibaki was declared the winner.

This saw chaos emerge in parts of the country after the disputed elections, which led to leaders on the negotiation table, including the mediator, former United Nations Secretary-General, the late Koffi Annan and ultimately a grand coalition government.

The Prime Minister's office was reestablished through the National Accord and Reconciliation Act 2008.

Again Raila was in government instead of the opposition and despite the differences in opinion with Kibaki, they worked around it until the term ended.

In 2017, he contested but contested the results in the Supreme Court, which saw the nullification of  Uhuru Kenyatta's victory and a rerun that he boycotted saying the playing ground was not level.

Raila however opted to be sworn in a mock ceremony at Uhuru Park in 2018  as the people's president, an act some government functionaries disowned as treasonous.

However, Raila was ‘sworn in’ in the absence of his running mate Kalonzo Musyoka, with the former indicating that his chance would come later.

Reports were to later emerge that the then NASA principals including Kalonzo, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula were thrown into a spin and only saw the mock swearing-in taking place, despite being assured that they would be reached with a foreign number on that day.

As some of the administrators of the Raila's oath were being hunted down by security agents and others such as Miguna Miguna were deported Raila remained untouched.

A secret deal was being cooked and a majority of Raila's close allies and supporters were shocked a month later when news of a political pact between Uhuru and Raila emerged, commonly known as the handshake.