Ruto: Political mastermind with a brilliant plan or bold risk-taker courting disaster?

President William Ruto pays a courtesy call to Former President Uhuru Kenyatta at his Gatundu Home on December 9, 2024. [File, Standard]

President William Ruto is sitting pretty this weekend, well aware that he has,  at least for now, won over two of his fiercest foes — Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta — and possibly taken them out of the equation.

That is a major victory for a head of state, who, for more than two years, has been lurching from crisis to crisis.

Ruto could now get more time to focus on his government’s agenda and the 2027 elections, although the possibility of a new political crisis appearing out of the blue could not be ruled out.

After making up with his former rival, Raila, earlier this year, Ruto ended his differences with former President Uhuru on December 9 – at least that’s what the two leaders telegraphed when they appeared in public together, shaking hands.

“What we are seeing is definitely in preparation for 2027,” said International Crisis Group’s East Africa analyst Meron Elias.

She said President Ruto wanted to remain open and see what his options were as coalitions form for the next election.

 “I don’t know if it’s a vulnerability but perhaps the challenges of the last two years (with the protests, the impeachment) have made it clear he needs to have several plans available ahead of 2027,” she said. “The hustler narrative alone might not be enough.”

The political ramification of Ruto’s outreach to the very clique he lambasted during his 2022 election campaign is far from clear.

Some government critics have already started to talk of the collapse of Ruto’s initial narrative of working for the Kenyans striving to make ends meet, the cohort that is best known as the hustlers.

Ruto’s surprise entente with Uhuru, which came after he visited his predecessor’s Gatundu home, has  — like Raila’s before it —resulted in the appointment of Uhuru’s allies to the Cabinet.

On December 20, President Ruto named former governors William Kabogo and Lee Kinyanjui to ICT and trade secretaries, respectively.

Former Health CS Mutahi Kagwe was also named the new Agriculture and Livestock secretary.

The two leaders’ relations soured before the 2022 elections, an estrangement that sometimes took on nasty verbal exchanges and wild accusations.

With his eyes on 2027 elections, President Ruto seems to have realised that he needed to whittle down his potential enemies in 2025, even those who pose little risk to his rule.

Prof Gitile Naituli, of Multimedia University of Kenya, said the events and politics of 2025 will determine the winner in 2027.

“If the President makes good use of 2025, he could have an impact on 2027,” he said. “The President has only 2025 to deliver on his promises. 2026 is when the campaign starts. So the time he has to deliver is next year.”

While the Ruto-Uhuru handshake was good for the camera and the nation, Uhuru, despite his national stature, has little real political capital to offer to Ruto, as he is not a very popular figure among Mount Kenya, a fact that was laid bare during the 2022 elections when this constituency  rejected his favorite candidate, Raila, and instead voted for Ruto.

Appointing new Cabinet Secretaries from Kikuyus would mean little to Mount Kenya people, said Prof. Naituli.

“What means a lot to them is the actual improvement of the economy because that puts money in people’s pockets,” he said.

Ruto’s decision to tap Uhuru’s allies came after his July 24 decision to bring allies of Raila on board: John Mbadi ( Treasury Cabinet Secretary), Hassan Joho (Mining and blue Economy), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy and Petroleum) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Co-operatives and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Development).

Ruto’s big tent government is a significant political development in the country, which last saw such a formation during the Kibaki-Raila administration in 2008, when the two antagonists decided to share power after the post-election violence.

Buffeted by back-to-back crises that threatened his plan to transform Kenya and create a “better, more just and prosperous” nation, Ruto had to make a move. 

Indeed, Ruto’s challenges was unlike any faced by recent Kenyan leaders.

Since his election victory in August 2022, President Ruto has been battling many political and economic crises that tested his leadership skills and sapped his energy.

The Raila-led opposition rejected his victory and resorted to street protests, ignoring the Supreme Court’s judgement that upheld Ruto’s win. Those agitations continued for about a year, paralysing the country that has already been reeling from the impact of Covid-19 on its economy.

Then, without prior warning,  Gen Z-led protests erupted in the country threatening Ruto’s rule and the country’s stability. To ride out the youth storm, Ruto sacked his entire Cabinet except Musalia Mudavadi and later appointed five members of Raila’s allies to consolidate his administration.

Many groups, including civil society and opposition groups and politicians, hitched a ride on the Gen Z protests’ coattails, diluting its message that was already weakened by its lack of public leaders.

The new bromance between Ruto and Uhuru could prove fleeting, and, like all political deals, is prone to unraveling. The political expediency is based on the pair’s collective dislike for the former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua, popularly known as Riggy G, and on the basis of the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Deeply associating with Uhuru can also prove a political burden for Ruto in 2027 because many  still resent the Kenyatta family’s wealth and the children of Mau Mau (freedom fighters) blame the Kenyattas for their misfortunes.

The detente is also mainly dictated by Ruto’s urgent need to fix his unpopularity among residents of Mt Kenya  after the Deputy President’s ouster stirred anger in Mount Kenya region.

“If the people of Mount Kenya have refused you, it is very hard to get them back,” said Naituli.

Second term

While Raila’s newfound bond with Ruto is likely to last, especially if Raila wins the African Union Commission Chairmanship, the bromance with Uhuru is anything but permanent.

Although Uhuru and Ruto worked quite together in their first term, their differences in the second term was so irredeemable that they savaged each other during the 2022 election campaigns.

Their distrust continued after Ruto was declared the winner, with then-President Uhuru balking at congratulating his successor.

In 2023, mobs descended on Uhuru’s Northlands farm, burned structures, cut down trees and made away with hundreds of livestock. Some government officials accused — without producing evidence — the former head of state of financing the opposition group’s protests, an allegation he denied.  Uhuru was at the time caught up in the war between Ruto and Raila.

Ruto seems to have had an epiphany after the June-July Gen Z protests.

He shed his tough guy persona and adopted the image of a peacemaker open to his erstwhile enemies’ overtures.

During the anti-government demonstrations in June and July, protesters directed their anger at Ruto, with his once beloved image being replaced by calls of “Ruto Must Go” amid a wider public ambivalence.

During the 2022 election campaign, many Kenyans sympathised with Ruto’s victimhood narrative and attended his rallies in droves.

In the more than two years he has been in office, Ruto has shown remarkable compromise and patience, even though many of his decisions were influenced by his survival instincts.

After winning over Raila and Uhuru, the only remaining prominent politicians against him are now: Wiper Party’s Kalonzo Musyoka, Eugene Wamalwa of DAP-Kenya and Martha Karua of Narc Kenya. They all pose little risk to his 2027 ambition, as they lack fanatical supporters who can risk their lives for them and their cause.

But, how Ruto — a man known for never passing up good opportunities —  could parlay his new friendships into a strategy to romp to victory in 2027 is an open question.

Re-election bid

Ruto’s biggest test will be aligning his short term tactical manoeuvres of bringing rivals on board with his bigger 2027 re-election bid.

The outreach could “help” Ruto in 2027, said Meron.

“Raila and Uhuru are the two people in Kenya who could make a difference in an election if they support a party,” Meron said.  “If he (Ruto) gets them on his side, it will be hard for his opponents to stand against him in an election and win.”

Ruto’s softly-softly approach seems to run counter to his aggressive rhetoric during the election campaigns that demonised dynasties, which he mainly meant Raila and Uhuru.

His decision to expand the government, which is already buckling under an economic crisis, exacerbated by domestic and international debt, is likely to displease the wider public that was expecting to have a neat and efficient government.

In his Jamhuri Day speech, President Ruto highlighted his government’s achievements, saying the country is “step by step,” building “a food-secure Kenya where every family can afford and access a meal.”

“We have every intention of fulfilling our commitments and are at the point where the first projects are successfully entering maturity,” he said

Ruto called on government critics to base their critiques on facts and truth.

“When we say that the cost of basic food commodities has come down, it is a fact. When we say that inflation has gone down, it is a fact,” he said.

“When we say that our farmers are producing more and better, it is a fact, and when we say that Kenyans who have registered for Taifa Care are receiving better services than before, it is a fact,” he said.