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Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga when he attended AUC elections in Addis Ababa.
Today’s most significant question is what Raila Odinga’s loss as AU chair portends for Kenyan politics. President Ruto told African leaders and the world that Raila’s loss was a “missed opportunity for Africa.” But how will this shape the political landscape moving forward?
If I were an African president voting for the African Union Commission (EUC) chairperson in Addis Ababa on 15 February 2025, I would not have voted for Raila Odinga too. Here are the reasons!
First, how could President William Ruto convince African leaders to elect Raila Odinga as AU chair when he cannot engage him in his administration? This discrepancy raises questions about Ruto’s true intentions and whether his support for Raila was genuine or merely a strategic move to neutralise a political rival.
The contradiction of endorsing someone for a continental position while sidelining them domestically could not have been lost on the African leaders voting in Addis Ababa.
Second, when a leader publicly undermines the competence of another, it becomes challenging to later advocate for that person’s leadership on an international stage.
Ruto has not always expressed confidence in Raila’s political leadership, especially during and after the 2022 elections.
Many African leaders, who always follow what happens in Kenya, could have seen Ruto’s support for Raila’s bid as AUC chair as a strategy to pacify his (Raila’s) political ‘disturbances’ at home, thus stabilising his administration. Raila Odinga has been a formidable figure in Kenyan politics, often posing significant challenges to the sitting government.
We all agree that Raila Odinga’s leadership is needed in this country. There are myriad ways in which Raila’s expertise and experience could be harnessed for the nation’s benefit without necessarily positioning him in an elective office.
So, an inclusive approach that leverages the strengths of all political actors could be more beneficial for the country and Ruto’s administration.
Are there dangers of ignoring Raila Odinga? We do not need a prophet to tell us that there are considerable rifts in Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza and that all crowds are black for the ruling party.
The Raila Odinga’s Azimio coalition has already seen that and will likely appropriate this weakness in the next few months to weaken Ruto’s political base. The opposition is well aware of the cracks within the ruling party and is poised to capitalise on them.
Raila’s inclusion in the administration could act as a unifying factor, potentially averting political unrest.
Already, last week, even before Raila lost the AU chairperson bid to Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, his Azimio coalition members protested in parliament after the speaker Moses Wetang’ula ruled that Ruto’s Kenya kwanza coalition are the majority in the house.
The protests indicate the discontent and readiness of Raila’s opposition to challenge the ruling party’s decisions. This scenario underscores the need for Ruto to seek a more inclusive and reconciliatory approach to governance.
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Immediately after Raila lost the AUC chair position, most Raila-aligned political pundits were heard saying that Ruto did not do enough to convince colleague presidents to vote for Raila as AUC chair.
Moreover, Raila’s enthusiasts welcomed him across media platforms and celebrated his return to the country, citing that he is needed at home. The support Raila received upon his defeat at Addis Ababa indicates that he still holds significant sway and remains a key player in Kenyan politics.
In his acceptance speech in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, he said he was ready to embark on much work that awaits him in his country. We all know what he does here in Kenya when he is not an insider in government.
Raila’s return marks the beginning of a new chapter in Kenyan politics, where his influence and leadership will again be pivotal—whatever Ruto decides to do with Raila is up to him. If President Ruto was sincere in saying that Raila was an asset for Africa, he should also demonstrate that the stone that Africa rejected could be a cornerstone at home.
-Dr Ndonye is a senior lecturer at Kabarak University’s Department of Mass Communication
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The Standard Group Plc is a
multi-media organization with investments in media platforms spanning newspaper
print operations, television, radio broadcasting, digital and online services. The
Standard Group is recognized as a leading multi-media house in Kenya with a key
influence in matters of national and international interest.
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