This is how Raila will make Ruto president again in 2027

President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga. [File, Standard]

Voters in the United States are waiting for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, to elect their 47th president. Presently, US mass media is awash with news and opinion on the effect of Taylor Alison Swift's  endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris for presidency.

Seemingly, the who-is-who in America have endorsed Kamala, including former president Ronald Reagan's staffers and some former Republican officials, to mention but a few.

The endorsement by Swift, a 34-year-old American singer and songwriter, means a lot. The hot debate is whether the endorsement will have a significant sway of votes against Donald Trump. Upon analysis of opinions from political pundits and opinion polls, it is clear that the endorsement might not sway votes in favour of Kamala but might lead to closing the gap between her and Trump.

Whether these suppositions are accurate will be something to watch after the November 5 polls. However, it shows that endorsements are a determining factor during the 2024 US general elections.

Endorsements are a 21st-century game-changer in presidential politics in the US and burgeoning democracies like Kenya.

Notably, Kenya will hold its General Election approximately 32 months after the US. Voters will have yet another chance to elect, among other leaders, the sixth president of the Republic. If President Ruto is re-elected, the country must wait until his second and final term in 2032 to have a new president.

Kenneth Hartley Blanchard, an American author, once said, "Knowing where you are going is the first step to getting there." As such, let us hypothesise the circumstances under which Ruto can be re-elected and what opportunities exist for such an outcome.

There is considerable debate in Kenya today about whether Ruto is re-electable. It is not a new debate. A few years after general elections, citizens are unhappy with the political trajectories under every regime.

This time around, Kenyans are sinking into disillusionment and frustration as they grapple with the reality of unmet expectations. However, being unsatisfied with the current regime is one thing and voting the regime out depends on a million factors.

One factor that will play out loudly in the August 2027 general elections is the Raila Odinga factor. Baba, as his enthusiasts call him, will make Ruto president again by directly endorsing him or going to the ballot as a candidate.

The most straight-forward and operative approach for Raila to king Ruto will be to seek the presidency. To Ruto, this approach will match former president Moi's in the 1992 and 1997 elections.

If Raila contests, which he might do, he will spoil the Nyanza, lower eastern and Coast region votes to pave the way for Ruto's victory even if the Mount Kenya region is split as many pundits are projecting.

However, if Raila decides to weaken Ruto, he will form a camp with him and directly endorse him. If he chooses this path, he will have committed a Samsonian crime—he will trim Ruto’s legacy, if any, and himself politically.

Secondly, an alliance between Raila and Ruto in 2027 will automate the power of Gen Z proper, and a third political force could be birthed. Remember, Raila is an ideal leader for the Gen Zs. Gen Zs are a prototype of the 1990s young Turks who had no leader but cleaved onto Raila for their visibility.

The parting shot is this: In 2027, Kenyans will go to the ballot to vote Ruto and his government out. As such, Ruto must engage the political abracadabra of winning re-election, not the Kibaki way, but the 1990s Moi way. And that is the Political Chessboard!

Dr Ndonye is a senior lecturer at Kabarak University’s Department of Mass Communication