Will China outdo the West in transforming Africa?

President William Ruto with Chinese President Xi Jinping during bilateral talks at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China. President Ruto is in China fort the Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit. [PCS]

The ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (Focac) meeting has ended in Beijing, China.

Just across the sea, another forum is taking place, but with less publicity - the Eastern Economic Forum hosted by Russia in Vladivostok, the end of trans-Siberian railway.  Not the Siberia near Nyahururu!

The Eastern Forum has 62 countries represented. The website states: “The Eastern Economic Forum is a major platform that aims to develop the economy of the Far East and expand international cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region.” India, China, Vietnam and Myanmar are represented. Is Kenya represented?

 It’s interesting how key economic powers are hosting Africa. The continent is being treated like a beautiful girl ripe for marriage. And from conventional wisdom it’s hard for beautiful girls to get husbands. Will the African bride choose wisely? Will she look at the character of the bridegroom or his wealth?

Back to Focac. Fifty three African countries were represented. Add the African Union Commission and UN secretary general.

Focac, now almost a quarter of a century old brings together Africa and China to strategise how to transform Africa economically and, more muted culturally. The West transformed Africa culturally, economically is still work in progress.

One of the biggest questions is if China will succeed where the West failed in transforming African countries economically.

Reading through the speech by the host President Xi Jinping, it’s clear China seems to understand Africa very well. Start with dancers welcoming President Ruto to China. Can that ever happen in Western capitals? Remember Africa leaders sitting in a bus in one of the Western capitals? Who sat next to President Xi? Why?

You should read his speech, it's short and focused. We are used to long speeches in the East. A few comments caught my attention. One was his suggestion that Western approaches have not worked in Africa and have brought suffering. We should hear the African heads of state reaction to that, particularly from the Sahel region. We hope the Chinese approach will mitigate this suffering.

Two was that modernism is an inalienable right. That was profound. We are used to the dichotomy of ‘developed’ and ‘not developed’ countries. Is China ready and willing to help African countries close this gap?  Xi mentioned Africa’s agenda 2063 as the pathway to modernisation. Have we updated Vision 2030 to reflect Africa’s agenda 2063?

Three was reference to material and spiritual advancement. Does China understand our spirituality?

The speech then switched to 10 focus areas. One is governance. Will African countries adopt the Chinese governance system? Will that conflict with our current system, more Western with regular voting? Think of 1,000 members of African political parties invited to China to learn governance. UDA included? ODM? Would love to see their curriculum.

Trade is cited. Least developed countries among them 33 countries in Africa, will get zero-tariffs. How will other countries react to that? Reduce their tariffs too? What of non-tariff barriers? Will this lead to balanced trade between China and Africa?

China will launch an African SMEs empowerment programme. Bottom-up approach?  Focusing where it really matters to ordinary citizens?

Connectivity is the other focal point with 30 infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa on the pipeline…“assist in the development of the African Continental Free Trade Area, and deepen logistics and financial cooperation for the benefit of trans-regional development in Africa.” How many projects target Kenya?  This focal area has led to increased Chinese visibility in Africa

Add 1,000 “small is beautiful” livelihood projects in addition to helping Africa host youth Olympics in 2026 and 2027 Africa cup of nations. Why small, a reaction to megaprojects?

Heath is the other sector, with China sending medical personnel to Africa, investment in pharmaceutical supplies (response to India?) and supporting African Center for Disease Prevention and Control. Agriculture is expected to create one million jobs through innovations and sending experts to Africa. That echoes America’s Peace Corps after our independence.  

Vocational education is another target with 60,000 training opportunities and a cultural Silk Road (like BRI?). More Radio and TV with Chinese content in future? Will CNN get a competitor? In building a cultural silk road, China faces a formidable and deeply entrenched Western culture buttressed on religion and language. When will speaking Mandarin become cool in Africa? Shall our babies soon have Chinese names as popular as Liam or Jayden?

Green development is another focus with 30 clean energy projects and 30 labs in Africa. Nuclear energy and lunar exploration are cited. Why is everyone interested in ‘nuclearisation’ of Africa when the rest of the world is moving away from nuclear energy? Will China take the first African astronaut into space or on her maiden manned trip to the moon?

Last focal point is security. China is ready to train 6,000 military personnel and 1,000 police and law enforcement officers from Africa. Five hundred young African military officers will visit China. Add joint military exercises, training, patrol and de-mining.

China will provide RMB360 billion yuan (about $51 billion or Sh6.69 trillion) in the next three years to support these projects through credit lines, assistance in various forms, and investment in Africa by Chinese firms. Add issuance of Panda bonds in China. When is Kenya getting a panda from China?  

A few questions went through my mind after Focac.

How will the various projects be distributed throughout Africa? What will Africa do herself? Shall we wean ourselves off from dependence? Will China give Africa wings to fly, to quote Equity Bank?

We often suffer from recidivism. After benchmarking or education trips abroad, we regress to our old ways. Does Focac have a mechanism for reducing that?

Ordinary citizens wait for the African government to help them. African governments wait for big economic powers to help them. Will China help Africa break this cycle of dependency?

Should Africa use Kalonzo Musyoka’s strategy, “pitia kati kati yao” (pass in between)? Should Africa, being wooed by both the West and East, get the best from both powers?

How will the West react to the Chinese initiative? Will it give Africa a counter offer? Remember the US offer to build Nairobi-Mombasa Superhighway. What of Rironi-Mau Summit road shifting from France to China?

Africa is being hosted by USA, China, Japan and Korea among other economic powers. When shall we be the host? Africa has been babysat for too long, it’s time we stood on our own like other countries. We have the resources and the brains. What is missing is working together, a science and technology base, and self-confidence.

Food for thought; China with 1.412 billion souls has one government. Africa has about the same population with 54 governments.