'Uhuru Doctrine': 2022 not just about State House

As we welcome ourselves to 2022, let’s also think about what we want 2023 to look like. [Boniface Okendo, Standard]

To think about Kenya in 2022 is to imagine what we want it to look like in 2023.  The Uhuru Doctrine described and analysed in yesterday’s column offers two views;  first is a legacy framework for President Uhuru Kenyatta; second is a conversational outline for his prospective 2022 successor.  

At presidential level, it still looks like this will be a two-horse race between Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga.  Powerful campaign strategy and tactics teams have been set up on either side.  The remaining question seems to be which path the One Kenya Alliance, if it remains an alliance, will pursue. Most Kenyans want a straightforward, decisive and non-violent first-round result.  The Covid pandemic has hurt the economy, and the national prayer is for a peaceful year of recovery.

As stated in the earlier piece, the three-part Uhuru Doctrine offers an interesting, if unconvincing, template for our politics and economics.  Leadership before politics.  Justice over law.  Boldness over populism.  At one level, it is a call for social and economic stability based on predictable politics.  At another, it blames politics for Kenya’s ills, and seems to lean on the unhappy notion of victor’s justice. 

It seeks a stable administrative, rather than adaptive policy, state in a VUCA (volatile uncertain, complex and ambiguous) world.  Yet today’s global space is no longer stable, certain, simple or clear.  Sadly, however, we are walking into the August elections with the presidency as yet another “life and death” affair.

Governance and Rule of Law

Kenya’s next national leader must have a governance and rule-of-law bent.  The way to fix the economy is not to interfere with it, but simply set it free and backstop it.  All of the promises of economic transformation we are hearing from the potential 5th presidencies have no salvation in a predatory business and investment climate that does not unlock our economic potential.  This goes particularly for MSMEs, many of which are not bothered to become formal even when forced to licence. 

It isn’t the theoretical ease of doing business set out in our laws and regulations, it is its real life cost in daily transactions, including bribes, protection money and sundry shortcuts to manage quality standards.  This might be the economic conversation we appear to be having right now.  The trick with this conversation is to find a positive angle that supports and promotes before it regulates and sanctions.

Which is why our 2022 electoral choices matter beyond the presidency.  Let us pursue an adventurous journey into the other five positions we shall vote for and consider our experience in real life.  We will use a different marking scheme having settled on the governance and rule-of-law national leader.  

This is not about “six-piece suit” voting in August, but where your personal interests lie as a Kenyan. We will start at the beginning of the food chain — with Members of County Assemblies (MCAs). As with their seniors in Parliament, you are probably looking for MCAs who appreciate that their role is ROLE (representation, oversight, legislation and evaluation).  These are the people who represent your day-to-day interests in the assembly and pass county laws that support those interests.  

President Uhuru Kenyatta. [Edward Kiplimo, Standard]

It is not just laws that you want them to pass, but positivist policies to promote public and private good, and appropriate regulation to give effect, as needed, to policy and law.  So you want the person who gets that, say, creating an MSME fund in law and regulation is of little use if it is not underpinned by enabling MSME policy – on, say, the business environment, skills or institutional support.

This is the MCA you also want to both oversight and evaluate the County Executive.  This is your representative in the assembly when the Executive goes haywire with spending, or taxing you. The MCA experience to date seems to be one of frustrating, not oversighting, the Executive.  Not good enough.

Your governor is next.  If the presidency (as Head of State) has three core functions – governance, economy, security – then your governor has the first two.  Governance means you are voting in the person most suited to creating and running a county government that is capable, responsive and accountable.  Economy means the person appreciates that the county economy is part of the national one, and looks ready to engage in regional and international economic cooperation and competition.

Health, water and sanitation

Mostly, however, this is the outcome-driven person who gets agriculture and trade/commerce/industry are the daily lifeblood of the county; but pays attention to the social side around nutrition, health, water and sanitation, hygiene, shelter and education. 

And hopefully does this without bloating the county payroll with a retinue of gurus, advisors, consultants, courtiers, jesters and other persons of private interest. Once you have sorted out your county vote decision, the next person in line is your Senator.  This person has an indirect representation role in that he or she exists to safeguard the interests of devolution as a concept, and counties as local political spaces of self-determination.  Do not be fooled by the oversight noise emanating from the Senate; concentrate instead on the legislative contributions they make in the interests of all counties as a collective.  There is no simpler way to think about this vote.

Your County Woman Rep is next.  Her role is as representative as that of the Senator, but she also has a cash kitty that allows her to focus on specific needs across the county.  She also holds an important vote in the National Assembly where critical national legislation is passed, and oversight is offered. 

In a clever sense, this role creates space to offer targeted development at county and constituency level.  Forget what analysts say about this role, it is probably your critical vote for inequality interventions.

This leaves you with the final vote for your constituency Member of the National Assembly (MP).  Just think, as you did with everyone else except governor, about ROLE (representation, oversight, legislation and evaluation).  Think too about how effective the person will be while working in the committee system through which our Parliament is run.  In other words, not the person who looks likely to simply collect allowances from each committee sitting, but someone you think might (depending on the committee) bring something to the table.

Forests and Trees

Now you have voted.  Is your governor likely to increase local taxes?  Does your governor have transformative ideas for your county micro-economy?  Can they be trusted to be held to account? Will your MCA develop policy and law, or resist tax increases because they think these taxes might be mis-spent, or not paid by everyone?  Will your Senator and Woman Rep speak to the interests of devolution, and specific interests?  Will your MP say something in the House, or are they a committee introvert?

Let us pursue an adventurous journey into the other five positions we shall vote for and consider our experience in real life. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

But mostly, in the bigger scheme of things, will your voting choice reflect the Constitution’s intent to give effect to our basic rights in our devolved spaces?  Or are you banking on the single vote of the presidency to transform your life? 

Maybe if we applied “bottom-up” thinking to the way we vote, this might be the most important question we will need to answer in August.  Isn’t all politics local first?

The obvious question in all these is how ordinary Kenyans could possibly navigate this voting complexity.  The short answer is to vote most carefully where the shoe pinches you the hardest.  We are not yet there in this thinking, but we are getting there, slowly but surely.  None of this means you must avoid the rallies otherwise known as Covid-19 “super-spreader” events. It might, however, cause you to wonder about huge crowds in attendance during working days; even accounting for those transported in.

A further point is that our political strategists are probably mapping it in two ways.  One, get the presidency, then Parliament, then county assemblies, and finally the governor.  Two, get the governors and the presidency, then Parliament, then county assemblies.  It is all a Pandora’s box of voter trickery.

We will all know the answers we find by the beginning of 2023.  We may or may not reflect on it if we confused the individual trees for the forest that is our personal interests first and foremost. It does not hurt to think through this now, as we painfully endure endless campaign rallies in the coming months.

Not only is our politics terribly local, but it is maddeningly, disruptively permanent. On this point, it is easy to see the rationale behind the Uhuru Doctrine. As we welcome ourselves to 2022, let’s also think about what we want 2023 to look like.  Even as we hope and pray for a peaceful, yet fruitful, year ahead.

The writer is a public policy expert and management consultant.