The ‘critical few’ want a referendum, and they will get one

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The constitutional referendum will happen. It will happen because the ‘critical few’, the ‘wenyenchi’, want it to happen. The ‘trivial majority’ - the ‘wananchi’ - have no choice. There are three reasons why ‘watus’ will be lining up at the ballot soon. 

The first reason for the referendum is member number one of the ‘critical few’, Raila Odinga. For him, the referendum will happen because the presidency is has become like the eye of a needle through which he can’t pass. Raila has been like the biblical rich man who has less chances of squeezing into the presidency, much like a camel can pass through the eye of a needle. Instead of wasting what could be his last chance to go through the tiny opening in 2022, Raila’s genius plan is to make the eye of the needle wider. If the executive branch is expanded, Raila will be included in the new configuration one way or the other. And if one position has to go to Raila, it will be the presidency.

The second reason for the referendum is member number two of the critical few, Uhuru Kenyatta. In this case, he is a member as Uhuru the individual, not the president. Uhuru the individual is invested in his heritage. Being his father’s successor, he too is invested in perpetuating the dynasty and keeping it relevant in national politics.

Political dynasties the world over are jealous institutions and Uhuru is not an exception. Thus, if he is a rational, self-interested actor, he will also seek to leave a system in place that can do two things: one, allow him to still play a key role in Kenyan politics beyond 2022; and two, allow his ‘heirs’ to circulate back into power in a shorter time than he did. His family took 30 years to circulate back into high office. He wants this period to be shorter and guarantee that the successor he may be grooming takes over.

The third reason for the referendum is member number three of the critical few, William Ruto. But in his case, the referendum will be an act upon him, not an act by him.

A constitutional referendum that leads to the expansion of the Executive only jeopardises his current shot at the presidency. In fact, this could well be the main intention of the referendum campaign, his neutralisation. In other words, if there were no William Ruto, there would be no referendum.

This will not be the first time that a man’s path to the presidency has become so threatening as to inspire the change of the whole country’s ‘mother document’. Former President Daniel Moi’s apparent succession spurred the Change the Constitution Movement (CCM) in the seventies. As Njenga Karume told us in his book, ‘Beyond Expectations: From Charcoal to Gold’, the movement was meant to change the law which allowed Moi to succeed Jomo. But unlike how the Moi saga unfolded, the current Kenyatta seems unmotivated to protect Ruto from the present day ‘CCM’ onslaught. At the end of the day, it is these three ‘critical’ reasons that will ensure that the referendum happens. Political action is never motivated by the kindness of heart - the ‘critical few’ always pursue their own interests, and their interests almost always carry the day.

But the fact that the referendum is happening because of the ‘critical few’ is not entirely a bad thing. For the ‘trivial majority’ or the ‘wanainchi’, the end justifies the means when it comes to the referendum. And this is the case right now. Perhaps, we do need the change. Presidential systems are at their core majoritarian. In the words of political scientist Arend Lijphart, in plural societies, “majority rule becomes not only undemocratic, but also dangerous because minorities are continually denied access to power.’ 

So in this case, the selfish interests of the ‘critical few’ will coincide with those of the ‘trivial majority’.

- The writer is a PhD candidate in political economy at SMC University. [email protected]