US pollster shows a possible run-off

The poll John Zogby shows that National Super Alliance candidate Raila Odinga has a slim lead over President Uhuru Kenyatta but not enough to secure a first-round victory. Photo: Reuters 

A new poll suggests that National Super Alliance candidate Raila Odinga has a slim lead over President Uhuru Kenyatta but not enough to secure a first-round victory.

According to John Zogby, a US-based pollster, Raila would get 47.4 per cent of the presidential vote, beating his closest rival, Uhuru, by less than one per cent.

The survey, which was conducted between July 8 and July 13, indicates that Uhuru would win get 46.7 per cent of the votes if elections were held today.

The survey was commissioned by NASA.

The Constitution requires the winner to garner 50 per cent plus 1 of the total votes cast and also 25 per cent in at least 24 counties.

In the event that no candidate attains this threshold, a run-off vote will be held, with the winner requiring a simple majority.

"This election is so close to call, no candidate between Uhuru and Raila would win by a landslide," Zogby told the media via a teleconference at a Nairobi hotel yesterday.

Undecided voters

He added: "The fight to clinch the seat is now left to undecided voters and whoever marshals the best machinery to campaign in the remaining three weeks."

Among the 2,983 respondents sampled across the 47 counties, Raila got 1,414 votes while Uhuru got 1,391 votes, allowing Raila to have a narrow lead over the President.

Other presidential candidates combined got 26 votes while 152 were undecided.

According to the poll, there are more female undecided voters than men. There are also more undecided young voters than old ones.

The poll found that both Uhuru and Raila are highly regarded as individuals, with 60 per cent loving Uhuru as a person and 50 per cent liking Raila.

Uhuru enjoys support among women and elderly voters while Raila has the greatest support among youthful voters.