NASA’s 10 million votes narrative could prove fatal

 

In the past fortnight, the NASA brigade has set a juggernaut of a political narrative running, claiming they have 10 million votes out of the 19 million registered voters.

From mere observation, the narrative stems from a theory of political fear, in this case, the fear of being rigged out. Much as it looks like a harmless and boisterous political declaration, its eventuality could be fatal.

In his 2004 book, Fear: The History of a Political Idea, Corey Robin, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Brooklyn College, argued that “one day, the war on terrorism will come to an end. All wars do.

Perpetual fear

And when it does, we will find ourselves still living in fear: not of terrorism or radical Islam, but of the domestic rulers that fear has left behind.”

Corey meant that after all the struggles America had gone through, there would be no end to the feeling that something worse would still be upon them.

When it comes to political fear, theorists are particular. By political fear, I mean either the shared apprehension of a people about threats to its safety or well-being — the fear of crime, for example, or of terrorism, or in our case, rigging.

The NASA battalion is reacting to a fear that may have developed over time, especially considering Raila’s involvement in the presidential election.

This will be Raila’s third strong shot at the top seat in his four attempts.

In two of these attempts, Raila boldly claimed he was rigged out, and his supporters equally and strongly believe so.

Naturally after Jubilee’s ‘Tyranny of Numbers’ declaration in 2013, NASA would have looked for a way to water down the notion that Jubilee is naturally superior when it comes to numbers.

The appeal of such a narrative comes in its simplicity to the electorate. The math has been done already, or so they would say.

It spares one the pain of being bothered with complex issues and contradictory facts. It designates not only who the villain is, but also creates a victim mentality.

Misleading statistics

Think about how the idea of 10 million votes may have come up: IEBC has not yet audited the register, but then NASA, if they did, sat down and segmented the electorate then picked what they think are their strongholds and did the math.

It would have been enough to just say that the tyranny of numbers theory no longer holds water, but they went ahead and did the math and settled on a number. It sounds good on the campaign trail.

Mentioning a specific number as 10 million, however, is populist and dangerous. We should realise that in a democracy, such a narrative arises from fear.

Rational decisions come from weighing the pros and cons of a political statement. But when fear enters the equation, people give more weight and importance to some considerations than they actually deserve, however farfetched.

The main bad here is that populism is a moralist ideology. Naturally, populism rejects the legitimacy of political opponents.

As the populists are the vox populi, or the voice of all the people, anyone with a different view speaks for “special interests”, or the elite.

Courting trouble

 Any media, for example, that challenges the idea of NASA having 10 million votes in their turf will henceforth be branded as ‘compromised’.

This uncompromising stand will lead to an even more polarised political culture.

Moving forward, NASA’s supporters will strongly believe they are 10 million votes strong and would not accept anything less of a win.

Any loss will not make sense to them because anyway, they had 10 million votes in their backyard and it makes no mathematical sense to lose.

This is being propagated despite the fact that no presidential candidate has garnered anything more than 6 million in the past three elections.

There is the other side, a positive to NASA, that it will inspire their voters to wake up and turn out to vote knowing they have the numbers. It stands a chance to inspire NASA’s supporters as it did Jubilee’s in 2013

The downside, however, is the eventuality that they do not reach this target and they do not win the election. Mathematically, NASA has only maybe transferred Mudavadi’s votes to their side.

If you do the math, they still lose. But that’s not how elections work maybe... However that notwithstanding, an electorate that has been assured 10 million votes will be more hostile to any loss.

The aftermath, as has been before, will be terrible.

NASA should know that while #10MillionStrong sounds like a catchy slogan, it is dangerous politically.

Their opponents in 2013 used the tyranny of numbers theory but were careful not to make a specific number a reality. Making it a reality and a slogan is preparing for trouble. Reason, not fear, should be the yardstick that guides them.

Mr. Mureu is a teacher. [email protected]