A questions that baffles many, Let me work out this hypothesis. Is he heading for the gubernatorial seat, the senate seat, or will he rather cool his heels for the next 5 years?
Well Busia is 628.7 sq m with an estimate population of 743,946. The same county has 251,305 registered voters as per IEBC analysis.
The Iteso as a community having 79,048 registered voters estimate.
Therefore it follows that the aba-marachi, ava-khayo, ava-samia and ava-nyala share the rest of 172,257.
Politics is a game of numbers and it does not need rocket science to tell us that Ababu needs this Iteso votes more than anything to license him a position at the county level.
It is very possible that he may un-sit Ojamong but it will be a quagmire to do that and at the same time to split the Tesos’ interest in Eng. Vincent Sidai.
Or Ababu backs up Sidai to un-mount the incumbent Sospeter Ojamong and Ababu Namwamba wins the interest of the Tesos for trusting in one of their own, and they give him the votes if he goes for the senate seat. That will be a fair walk. Ababu will win by being a distance number one that the number two will be one a fresh page 5.
Ababu still has the interests of Itesos at heart and the aba-marachi and ava-khayo view him as “a smart man with an agile mind.” So they will not by default but by heart give him 80% if not 90 of their votes.
If he badly needs the governorship and goes for it he will come as a close number two hence running as the deputy and no one wants to see that. He is too intelligent to see Sidai give him orders. I think Kizito Wangalwa is no longer in the game because he is part and parcel of a failed system of governance.
As for Amos Wako who was voted not because his manifestos were superb and outstanding but because he had a big name having been the legal advisor to the executive, no one could have denied him the honor when he came back to ask for votes. Let me tell him and others like him People are waking up and realizing that politics should not be used as a retirement scheme.
We need career statesmen and women who view politics and serving people as their career.
The people of Budalangi would vote Ababu with a 99% turn out if he goes for the senate because of the concept "huyu ni wa kwetu" but at the same time they won’t vote him 50% if he stood for the area M.P again.
10 years has been quite a long journey for him to shift the position to something else. Some new blood has to be brought to play. But again the youth of Budalangi have got personal issues with him, which are so personal that I leave opt not to talk about.
If he has always had a dream of becoming the governor since the devolution took place I would rather see him first taking the senate for 5 years and during those 5 years he does a tireless work to outdo the governor. He will surely get the governorship for the other 5 years. Within the 10 years in the county he plays his "A" game and transform Busia from what it is now and I can tell him for free he will be the president elect 2027 and serve his two terms as tradition in Kenya. Why not??
He would have reached his pinnacle in the game of politics.
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