Ethnic pacts are very much unreliable

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Kenyan politics revolves around conglomeration of ethnic blocs. This arrangement is a real recipe for tension among communities.

Voters' interests, just like consumer behaviour, keep shifting. While the leaders may be bound by the treaties, voters are likely to think differently.

Factors which bring communities together keep changing. Today's allies can easily become adversaries when conditions and interests change.

Politicians who bank on political agreements should exercise some caution. One is better off seeking nation-wide support rather than restricting oneself to a certain vote bloc otherwise it can be a big disappointment.

Both Opposition and the ruling coalition have taken this approach. Kenyans are watching to see whether the pact will hold.