Why Raila Odinga is right about ODM elections

By NGALA CHOME

At the centre of debate before ODM’s internal polls is the matter of the party’s performance in the last General Election. While Raila’s fears might spring from his loss of support in the Rift, and parts of Western and Northern Kenya, the so-called ‘Obura group’ (named after Ken Obura) blames an Orengo-Nyong’o axis for the party’s misfortunes.

Among political parties in Parliament, ODM is Kenya’s oldest with a coherent institutional base. Like other parties, it was founded and built on regional-ethnic blocs.

In a country whose salient political features include ethnic and regional brokerage, ODM must represent all regions in Kenya and, most significantly, those who supported the party in 2013. Common understanding regarding ODM’s popularity outside Nyanza – and specifically at the Coast – fails to appreciate that regional balancing is now the most significant factor in the party’s elections.

The Coast has never had a serious national political party, and has produced only one presidential candidate, Chibule wa Tsuma, who ran on a KNC ticket in 1992, and came a distant sixth. Coastal parties have enjoyed little impact nationally or regionally. This has left the Coast susceptible to outside parties, while feeding its feeling of marginalisation. But voter turnout in 2013 was higher than in any previous election. Even more interestingly, Raila’s presidential vote grew, both in numbers, and as a proportion of the vote, while President Kenyatta captured fewer votes than Kibaki had in 2007. Consensus among politicians and analysts is that the Coast’s strong vote for Raila was a vote for the new Constitution and devolution.

However, in discussion of the 2010 constitution, some representatives of coastal opinion made clear their dissatisfaction at the modest decentralization offered by the new constitution. The vijimbo constitution, as some dismissively call it, did not capture overwhelming support at the coast – a majority voted for it, but on a turnout of 537,000 voters, less than that of 2013. The failure of the new devolution to match up with popular conceptions of majimbo – which included strong local control for minerals, public sector service jobs, land and ports – reduced local enthusiasm for the new counties. And there was more than substantial scepticism at the coast about the sincerity of Raila’s interest in its grievances, as was apparent from the cynical response to his announcement of a new ‘taskforce’ to investigate them.

The presidential vote at the Coast during the last general election was, for many, a secondary choice. Also secondary was party choice. Close to people’s hearts were local contests and rivalries, invigorated by the introduction of 5 county seats, whose control was contested on the basis of the activation of local patronage networks. Hassan Joho won Mombasa’s governorship, not because of Raila’s support (which was minimal) but because he applied his resources and skills in lining up the support of local patrons and clients.

Most of the seats won by ODM at the Coast were not won because of the party’s popularity, but rather on the strength of the personalities standing on its ticket. This is why ODM lost the Mombasa senate seat to the Wiper Democratic Movement via Senator Hassan Omar. Nor did party choice matter in Kaloleni, where the ODM candidate lost to Mwinga Gunga of KADU-Asili. ODM also lost the Lamu and Tana River governorships to UDF and WDM.

In Kwale, where MRC sentiment was strongest, ODM won a majority of seats due to a mixture of a distrust against Uhuru Kenyatta, and the ethnic competition between Digo on one side and Duruma-Kamba on the other. In Kilifi, distrust against Uhuru Kenyatta, rather than love for Raila, was decisive in pushing up ODM’s vote; as was clear from the fact that the ODM candidature for governor was declared amid wide opposition. Equally, a mix of ethnic competition between Taveta and Kamba on one side and Taita on another, gave John Mruttu a slight margin over his closest challenger, Jacinta Mwatela of WDM. In Taita, as in Mombasa where Hassan Joho faced stiff competition from Suleiman Shabhal of WDM, support for ODM was not unequivocal.

This might explain why calls by a section of Nyanza MPs that Dr Agnes Zani should not assume the party’s secretary-generalship encouraged some Coast politicians to explore forming their own party. The experience of the 2013 March elections showed that ODM’s support at the Coast is at best, residual; it also showed that the Coast can produce strong local politicians, such as Joho, without outside support. That is why Raila is right in his stated position regarding the February ODM elections, and why ODM stands to benefit from the incorporation of strong local politicians from the Coast (or those, like Dr Agnes Zani, who receive their endorsement) within ODM’s national structures.