Trump vs Kamala: Who will take it in cliffhanger US polls?

Kamala could be the next US President, the first woman and a black one for that matter. But if you ask any Kenyan what race is Kamala, the answer will be mzungu!

She took over after Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy. While a disastrous performance in the debate is touted as the trigger for his withdrawal, it could have been the Democrats’ strategy to take Donald Trump off-guard.

By tomorrow, we shall know if their strategy worked. Her “exotic” background is an asset. Americans love outliers. As a Kenyan, I see why she is an outlier.

We have had Asians here for over a century. However, cases of black men marrying Asians are rare.

I recall one case that became headlines in western Kenya. Kamala‘s father is black, while her mother is Asian.

Why don’t Asians intermarry with the rest of us? Many Kenyans who went to study in the US, Europe or the former Soviet Union brought back home beautiful girls from there.

Why don’t Kenyan men who go to study in the Asian subcontinent do the same? Kamala’s age is another asset, much younger than either Joe Biden or Donald Trump.

Polls seem to suggest she needs more than age and her outlier tag to win. While she caught up with Trump in polling, compared with Biden, she has not broken from the pack. What is her soft underbelly?

Some suggest she has never given a core message that resonates with the voters. She has been too general. Her focus on Wade vs Roe, which was overturned by the Supreme Court, returning abortion issues to the states might have drowned her other messages.

She can’t detach herself from the legacy of Joe Biden, which has been characterised by a high cost of living. Without a large informal economy sector, Americans feel the pains of a slow economy. Few have side hustles like us.

Kamala has not been very visible in foreign affairs. Could the crisis in Ukraine, Gaza and elsewhere be the source of bias, with the feeling Trump can do a better job in such a crisis?

One curious constituency that has eluded her is black men. Having lived in Mississippi, in the Deep South, I am not so surprised. Over a cup of tea, I can tell you more.

What about getting help from former presidents? Will voters interpret that as standing on political pedestals?  Why are former Republican presidents not helping Trump? 

It’s curious that while Kamala, the sitting Vice President, is about to get to the White House, a deputy president in Kenya is going home. Why should senators and MPs, voted in like the DP now impeach him? Is that natural justice?

Will the running mates in the US be the secret weapon? Note the states they come from. Enough digression.

What of Trump? His biggest asset is saying what an ordinary American might not say. He has stirred emotions by focusing on immigrants. 

He has focused on nostalgia and the economic boom during his first term. No wonder polls give him a lead on economic matters. The warning that tariffs could raise the prices of goods is muted by that nostalgia.

If Trump wins, that would be the most important factor. On foreign policy, he portrays himself as the only one who can stand up to China and other strong nations.

Is his strong personality the reason he is still a threat to Kamala despite being convicted? Why didn’t his followers abandon him?

Let’s accept that despite being away from power for almost four years, Trump kept his political base more like Raila Odinga. That could return him to the White House. Who are Kamala‘s key followers?

Will the bullet that tore through Trump’s ear and other threats swing voters to his side? Sympathy votes? His unconventional way of doing things is both a strength and a weakness.

The college system where delegates decide the winner might work in his favour. Could Kamala’s slight lead in the opinion polls be wiped out by the Electoral College?

In such a tight race, it’s about who excites or incites their political base to come out and vote.  Trump has the upper hand on this. Will the fear of “Trump II” energise democrats to come out (kumira kumira)? Is the rest of the world taking sides in the US elections?

Does it matter who wins? America’s political system is robust enough to accommodate any of the winners. The rest of the world, including Kenya, will learn to accommodate the winner.

Who will win? Be ready for the unexpected. Trump could get a second term against all expectations.

Why has he not fizzled out despite all his problems?  If Kamala convinces enough voters to fear Trump, she could take the White House and make history. Over to American voters.