Why Kenya won't be spared if war escalates in the Middle East

Intoxicated by the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and other local issues like Adani, the Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF), the new university financing model and the 2027 polls, we have forgotten the Middle East is on the edge.

It is as if we are not part of geopolitics and geo-economics. By the way, do we ever relax without something spinning our heads as a country?  Is that deliberate or just a coincidence? 

Why is the Middle East a hot potato? Since the Hamas attacked Israel a year ago, the Middle East has remained on the edge. Israel has decided to neutralise all the threats. It’s now fighting on several fronts.  

They started in Gaza, where most Palestinians live. They displaced communities looking for sympathisers of the enemies of Israel. They ensured Gaza residents were always on the move, from north to south and back again. 

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Long before Hamas was neutralised, Israel attacked Hezbollah strongholds across the border in Lebanon.

I sympathise with Lebanon; when elephants fight, the grass suffers. Lebanon is torn between Israel and Iran with her proxies - Hezbollah, Hamas and far away Houthis in Yemen and Islamic Resistance of Iraq. The West calls this grouping “the axis of resistance.” 

Iran has learnt to use proxies in the Middle East conflicts. This was common during the Cold War, precipitating lots of unending wars.

It is an open secret: Iran arms Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis in Yemen and the Islamic Resistance of Iraq. Using rockets, members of the Axis of Resistance have left Israel on the edge.

Iran has been attacking Israel using rockets and missiles. Israel has done the same. The recent focus has been eliminating the leaders of Iran’s proxies at one time using pagers. I thought pagers were no longer in use. 

Trying underhand dealings in the Middle East could get you mental blisters. What if Israel were established in Kenya as history suggests?  

Iran and Israel are arch-enemies; one is because Israel is a friend of the US. The relationship between the three countries soured after the 1979 revolution in Iran when a pro-USA regime was overthrown. Remember the American hostages held in Iran for 444 days? 

Perhaps Iran sees the US as too far away to reach and Israel becomes the whipping boy through proxies. Have they ever voted through proxies? 

By opposing Israel, Iran calculated it would get support from her Arab neighbours. But lately, these neighbours have been building diplomatic ties with Israel. Noted their silence over the wars in Gaza and Lebanon?  

The war has tentacles reaching many capitals. Beirut is one. The innocent Lebanon and its cedars host Hezbollah, a leftover after the end of her civil war in 1995. Damascus is also in the mix because Syria is an ally of Iran, while Jerusalem is contested by both Muslims and Christians. Baghdad is the seat of Islamic resistance in Iraq, a phoenix that rose after the US-backed ouster of Saddam Hussein. Add Sanaa in Yemen. There could be other silent actors in this conflict. We can’t leave out Washington,  where Israel wars could tilt the presidential race. 

One curious observation is that proxies used in Middle East conflicts have all risen from the ashes of civil wars: think of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. Civil wars are exploited by outside forces to further their interests.

Think of Sudan and Somalia, closer home. Why should the Middle East worry us?  The conflicts in the Middle East have been low-key, using proxies. The fear is that they could become a full-blown war sucking in other players like America and its allies. That would be hard to stop and biblical in proportions. 

It has economic consequences. Many Kenyans working in the Middle East would lose their jobs and remittances.  

Oil prices would rise and cause inflation, which is already a political problem here at home. There is more to it than oil prices. Have you noted planes nowadays bypass the war-torn Sudan on the way to Europe? Kenya is mixed religiously, racially and ethnically. A war in the Middle East could inflame passions along these fissures. We have enough national anger.  The issues in the Middle East have been simmering for over 2,000 years. They are religious, and ethnic, and involve even outsiders. 

The emotions run deep, making negotiations hard. Remember two of the world’s biggest religions started in the Middle East. These conflicts are documented in the Old Testament. 

Dialogue would solve the problem. But military solutions are preferred. Remember Syria and Iraq?  Would Iran and Israel sit at the negotiating table? 

Conflicts in the Middle East have repercussions that reverberate across the globe. That is why everyone must be concerned and involved in getting a permanent solution. 

Could a Palestinian state be one of the solutions?  What is Kenya doing about it beyond evacuations from Lebanon? Kindly spare a thought for the Middle East and its children.