Rebirth of Pentagon? Inside Ruto's push to form new alliances

The country could be headed for the establishment of a major political formation akin to the 2007 Pentagon by ODM that featured President William Ruto, Azimio leader Raila Odinga and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi among its leaders

As realignments in the country’s political architecture continue to take shape following the fallout between Ruto and his deputy Rigathi Gachagua, observers believe Ruto is on a mission to recreate a political force to entrench support across the country to safeguard against losing his major support base in the last election, the Mt Kenya region.

In the battle to shake off his impeached deputy through the courts, observers believe he is on a mission to create and strengthen new centres of power and influential allies.

The quest appears to be on course following his decision to bring on-board Raila and his allies to be part of his administration. Save for Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and a few government critics, all other leaders perceived to be regional kingpins are now dancing to Ruto’s political rhythm.

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The script mirrors Raila’s own footprints in 2007 when he mobilised key political players to back his political goals.

At the time, Raila mobilised key players from all the key regions with an aim of ringfencing support and consequently giving former president Mwai Kibaki and his administration a run for their money.

The Pentagon included Raila (Nyanza), Ruto (Rift Valley), Joseph Nyaga (Mt Kenya), Charity Ngilu (Eastern), Musalia Mudavadi (Western), and Najib Balala (Coast).

Observers believe President Ruto is attempting to recreate a similar force after clipping the wings of his impeached deputy.

President Ruto’s recent rapprochement with Raila saw the president bring to his fold the opposition leader’s key allies from Coast, Nyanza, and Western Kenya regions.

In the new tactic, the president is hoping to create a new centre of power in the Mount Kenya region through his deputy presidential nominee Kithure Kindiki.

In Nyanza, his relationship with Raila appears to be ironclad if the recent voting pattern by Raila’s troops during the impeachment of Gachagua is anything to read from.

Similarly, the president has also managed to maintain the support of Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula.

Although Raila retains significant support from Western, the duo are also instrumental in helping Ruto crack support in the Luhya land.

At the Coast, Raila’s allies, led by former ODM deputy party leader Hassan Joho, are all singing Ruto’s tunes as the president strengthens his grip across the country.

According to a senior Kenya Kwanza official, the move by the president to seek new allies was a calculated plan to expand spheres of influence beyond Rift Valley and Central regions.

“It was also part of an effort to clip the wings of Gachagua who was on a mission to use the mount Kenya populace as a bait to frustrate the government,” says the legislator.

Analysts argue that the twin events, the fallout between Ruto and Gachagua, and the formation of an alliance between Ruto and Raila are poised to re-configure the country’s political architecture ahead of the 2027 elections.

Some analysts argue that the fallout between the president and the deputy was a blessing for the vote-rich region, which has the opportunity to explore new political allies with shared political and economic interests.

Former Ndaragwa MP Mwangi Gichuki said the president’s effort to enlist the support of Raila may not add value to his re-election bid as Raila’s supporters in major urban areas such as Nairobi, Mombasa, Nakuru, and other regions were hard hit by Kenya Kwanza policies.

The analysts contend that President Ruto had realised that his 2027 re-election bid would receive lukewarm support in the Mt Kenya block which was jittery about his government’s failure to deliver on his campaign pledges.

The region’s economy which is driven by agriculture, mainly tea, coffee, dairy, macadamia, avocado, and horticulture has seen its fortunes decline as the country’s economy dwindles.

The country’s economic downturn coupled with the bad blood between the president and his deputy has helped in driving a wedge between the Kenya Kwanza administration and huge sections of Mt Kenya residents who backed him.

Former presidential campaign strategist for both President Kibaki and Uhuru in the Rift Valley region, Dr Julius Kariuki said that the grumbling in Mt Kenya region over Ruto’s policies has forced him to seek new allies as he set his eyes on 2027.

“It has been evident over the past two years that Mt Kenya voters feel cheated by President Ruto whose administration has introduced punitive tax measures and other policies that have adversely affected the economic fortunes of Mt Kenya residents,” Kariuki stated.

He said by bringing into fold new allies, the president “wants to weaken Mt Kenya’s political strength as he boosts his re-election chances.”

He said President Ruto is headed to his political Waterloo as voters across the country were adversely affected by his policies.

“The rising unemployment rates amongst the youth, collapsed business and mounting socio-economic problems militate against President Ruto’s securing another term in 2027,”  Kariuki added.

According to Harold Kipchumba, a former ODM nominated Senator, although communities can unite and champion the national agenda it would be wrong to form ethnic-based alliances against certain Kenyan communities.

“We need broad-based alliances driven by Kenyans desire to improve their socio-economic and political welfare. I can foresee a situation where ethnic-based alliances will fail to receive the support of Kenyans who are concerned about the political direction of the country,” Kipchumba added.

Gitile Naituli, a professor of management and leadership at Multimedia University, said Ruto’s strategy of enlisting the support of Raila and his allies may fail to secure him a second term. “The country’s political landscape has rapidly changed due to the economic challenges facing the people and the country’s changed demographic structure with a huge pool of informed young people who are driving politics,” Prof Naituli said

The political analyst added;” Going forward it will be difficult for any political leader to form a tribal alliance for the sake of securing political power. Voters are keenly scrutinizing what these leaders stand for and their track record.”