Raila not out of local politics yet, analysts say of former premier

Early this month, the country was informed that Azimio leader Raila Odinga was pulling out of the political scene to focus on the intricate campaign for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC).

To show his commitment that he was ready for the task ahead of him, he relinquished his position of the ODM Party Leader to Kisumu Governor Anyang  Nyong’o who would take up the position, albeit in acting capacity.

But despite Raila’s publicly pronounced withdrawal from local politics, his handwriting is visible in the unfolding political developments in the country, ranging from the impeachment of beleaguered Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and his endorsement of the controversial Adani Holding Limited deal with the government to upgrade Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA).

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Gachagua’s impeachment, according to insiders, was sealed by Raila and Ruto in the United States of America where the opposition chief had accompanied the President to the 79th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

Raila, sources intimate, sealed Gachagua’s fate when he called National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohammed and directed him to whip ODM MPs to vote in favour of the impeachment. This move assisted Ruto in getting the much-needed numbers to send Gachagua home.

As a result, nearly all ODM MPs and senators voted in favour of Gachagua’s ouster and received overwhelming support from both the National Assembly and the Senate. Pundits and political players say had Raila indeed pulled out of politics, he would have either left Nyong’o to whip the ODM legislators to vote along the party lines or let them vote based on their conscience.

Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo says although Gachagua’s problems were as a result of his differences with the President, Raila hammered the last nail in Gachagua’s coffin by allowing his legislators to vote him home.

“Had ODM not joined Ruto, there would have been no impeachment. ODM has participated in the impeachment and is still participating in the court process,” said Maanzo.

“Without Raila’s legislators, Gachagaua would not have been impeached. We can conclude that the marriage between Raila and Ruto was political and was intended to help the President get rid of Gachagua,” Kirinyaga Woman Representative Njeri Maina added.

Despite national outrage over the Adani deals, last week, Raila came out to strongly support the deal, going against his own decision to step down from politics to concentrate more on his AUC campaigns.

It was strange that Raila, who has in the past criticized government programmes when he lauded the Public Private Partnership (PPP) arrangement, describing it as a better way of executing state projects instead of seeking funds through the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The bullish Raila also defended the Adani deal with the Kenya Electricity Transmission Company (Ketraco), a matter that was already in court, arguing that the company owned more energy infrastructure than Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania combined. He defended Adani as having a reputable record in development in the world and hit out at “some people who were misinforming the public about the Indian firm.”

“Adani Energy Solutions has a cumulative transmission network of 21,783 circuit kilometres of power transmission lines and 61,686 MVA transmission capacity,” Raila said. He said this was not the first time Adani was coming to Kenya through a PPP arrangement

The High Court would later issue orders barring the government and Adani Energy Solutions from implementing the controversial Sh95.68 billion energy deal pending the determination of a lawsuit filed by the Law Society of Kenya (LSK)

“A conservatory order is hereby issued suspending the implementation of any project agreement between Ketraco, the Cabinet Secretaries for Energy, Treasury, the Directorate of Public-Private Partnerships, the Public-Private Partnerships Committee, the Attorney General, and Adani Energy Solutions Group or any of its related companies and entities regarding the development of transmission lines, substations, or any other electrical power infrastructure,” Justice Bahati Mwamuye ordered. 

While Raila has maintained that he did not join Ruto’s administration, his party’s pronouncements when Ruto visited Nyanza exposed their plans to form a political coalition.

Led by Mohammed, the ODM leaders said they are committed to being in the government after the 2027 election and praised Ruto for opting to work with them.

Pioneer member

“There is nobody who was born to be in opposition in Kenya. I am holding my post as the minority leader for the next three years. Let those who want to be in opposition start preparing to be in opposition because we will be in the government as ODM,” Mohammed said.

Treasury CS John Mbadi said they owe Ruto a lot for his role in helping Raila become prime minister in 2008.

 “President Ruto, if you feel any discomfort in your party in 2027, please come to ODM. We will welcome you very highly. You were a pioneer member of our party,” said Kisii Governor Simba Arati.

The President said he is ready to work with ODM leaders for the long term, asking: “Are you guys ready we form the next government?”

Analysts say despite Raila’s claims, his alliance with Ruto was a new political game plan.