William ruto's 774-day roller coaster

President William Ruto is on a roller-coaster that only seems to be going up.

Fighting for survival a few months back, Dr Ruto has secured critical wins, even as he loses some.

His most notable victory is the impeachment of a ‘nagging’ principal assistant, an outcome that constitutional safeguards make nearly impossible to achieve.

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Amid all this, the President is keeping mum. Gachagua is going through what may qualify as ‘hell’ but his ex-boss seems unfazed. Despite the magnitude of the unfolding political events, to the President, it is as though nothing is happening.

The President has not uttered Gachagua’s name in a while and did not see the need to do so during the Mashujaa Day celebrations last week, only calling out tribalism, a crime the former DP was accused of committing during his impeachment proceedings at the bicameral Parliament.

It is uncharacteristic that Ruto, a man who hardly shies from speaking his mind, would stay this silent. In recent weeks, the President has withdrawn from his usual public engagements and project launching spree, preferring one-off appearances that are hardly as punchy as before.

The man who created and trademarked the controversial “mambo ni matatu” threats and who would call out politicians at will, finds out that he does not need to speak to get things moving. 

In silence, Ruto seems more effective. He raised two-thirds support across both Houses of Parliament to remove the immediate former Deputy President without summoning any lawmaker to the State House. Previously, the Head of State has openly rallied allies to fulfil his wishes in Parliament.

Ruto’s silence, deemed by Gachagua’s allies as an approval of the impeachment, spoke of a man fully in control, effortlessly seeing his plans through. Such sway was probably made possible courtesy of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s backing.

Grown confident

Through their ‘broad-based’ partnership, the pair boasts of numbers in Parliament that could enable them to pass whatever policies they please.

With Raila in his corner, Ruto has grown confident enough to speak about his government’s controversial deals, such as the Adani involvement in the energy and aviation sectors.

The partnership has made the President bold enough to oust his deputy from office.

Ruto is back to familiar ground, where he was at the start of his presidency. Victory over Raila and the State machinery backing him in the 2022 elections saw Ruto begin his presidency with a spring in his step.

After conquering Kenya, the Head of State set his sights on Africa, spreading the Pan-African message on the continental stage. His desire to make a mark in Africa would show when he hosted the continent’s first climate summit last year, which was relatively successful.

Months later, in May, Ruto would be on top of the world, hosted by United States President Joe Biden on a State visit, the first by an African head in 16 years.

A month later, Ruto’s regime seemed headed for collapse. A youth-led uprising, fueled by tax hikes and a biting cost of living climaxed in a storming of Parliament, which had just passed an unpopular Finance Bill of 2024.

Caught flat-footed and in denial, the Head of State vowed to crack down on “anarchists” he believed were behind the protests that brought the Kenya Kwanza administration to its knees. 

But he would backtrack and offer an olive branch of dialogue.

Confident that they could force Ruto into capitulation, Generation Z and Millennial protesters dismissed the talks, promising an escalation of their demonstrations despite key concessions by the President, like withdrawing his tax Bill.

Aware that his problems required a political solution, the besieged Ruto would fire almost his entire Cabinet, retaining only Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Gachagua. 

And at his weakest, Ruto would reach out to Raila, bringing five of the former premier’s allies to the Cabinet, a political masterstroke that essentially deflated the protests.

Moi University lecturer of history Timothy Onduru argues that without Raila’s support, Ruto’s hold on the presidency would be shaky.

“Raila has stabilised Ruto’s government and the President has regained control thanks to ODM’s support. And that is why the President was able to impeach Gachagua,” said Dr Onduru.

Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua argues that Ruto was never really vulnerable, stating that the President managed the “Gen Z turbulence” well.

“That President Ruto managed the turbulence talks of a leader who is in control. President Ruto has demonstrated capacity and competence in statecraft. Ruto, however, has the unique opportunity to dismantle disinformation architecture in Kenya and respond to all issues and concerns raised during protests in the pre-infiltration of Gen Z demonstrations,” said Mokua.

Uriri Member of Parliament Mark Nyamita says the President is at a better place than he was months ago when the Gen Zs were on his case.

“The President has a clear vision of where he wants to take the country. His biggest challenge, in my view, has been getting the people who believe in the said vision and can commit to deliver the same. For now, he seems to have gotten the footing,” said Nyamita.