Gachagua ouster triggers a major political shake-up

Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment promises to shake up the political scene, with major realignments in the offing.

The emerging partnership involves President William Ruto and former premier Raila Odinga, who have teamed up to oust Gachagua.

The pair’s broad-based arrangement managed to raise 281 lawmakers to support the Deputy President’s impeachment at the National Assembly and will, most likely, sink Gachagua this week at the Senate.

Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) yesterday held a meeting of its National Executive Committee (NEC) in Mombasa, with reports suggesting that the party was to discuss how to formalise its partnership with Dr Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

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Although the two parties are working together, no formal agreement binds them. A host of ODM politicians have urged a formal agreement to avoid a situation that will ultimately disenfranchise ODM.

When Ruto plucked five of ODM’s officials to join his Cabinet - John Mbadi (Treasury), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), Hassan Joho (Mining) and Beatrice Askul (East African Community), Siaya Governor James Orengo called on ODM to formalise its relationship with UDA.

“Any terms of engagement must be clearly defined and enshrined in law,” Orengo said in July.

Changing scenarios

But the party appears disinterested in the move, amid fears that a coalition with UDA could cost ODM its minority post in Parliament.

ODM officials denied that yesterday’s meeting discussed a binding partnership with UDA, saying they strategised about strengthening the party ahead of the 2027 general election and next month’s grassroots elections.

“There is nothing like that, “Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, ODM’s secretary general said.

No formal agreement

Deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi concurred.

“It was not on the agenda. We reiterated our earlier statement that we are not in any formal agreement with UDA and neither have we commenced any formal discussions for a coalition with Kenya Kwanza,” said Osotsi.

Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir, also a deputy party leader, denied discussions of a coalition between the two parties.

“Nothing like that was discussed. At all,” he said.

A coalition between ODM and UDA appears within grasp, especially since the formation of the ‘broad-based’ government that included opposition members. 

Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo described Raila as an “opportunist”, implying he was keen to benefit from Ruto’s rift with his deputy.

“Baba has claimed that he has not instructed his MPs to impeach Gachagua but it is clear that ODM is hounding the DP,” said Maanzo.

A coalition is also cooking between Gachagua and former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka. Kalonzo opposes Gachagua’s ouster and rallied most of his Wiper allies in Parliament to reject the motion.

The Wiper leader appears keen to reap big from Ruto’s fallout with Gachagua.

Maanzo said his Wiper party was still gauging the political temperatures and would wait to see how much “mistreatment” Gachagua is likely to face.

Indeed, a coalition between Kalonzo and Gachagua would be formidable enough to threaten Ruto’s chances, especially if the president fails to secure Raila’s support. But that will depend on whether the DP is ultimately impeached.

Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua argued that not running for political office “will significantly reduce Gachagua’s capacity to inflict political pain on politicians who don’t dance to his drum beats.”

“DP Gachagua can potentially convert this crisis to an exciting opportunity if he resigns and starts putting together political infrastructure for the 2027 general election. He can take advantage of the forced political sabbatical to consolidate his Mt Kenya political capital,” said Political Risk Analyst Dismas Mokua.

“If he manages to consolidate his power base, several politicians will find merit in aligning with his 2027 political interests. The probability is, however, very high that Kenya Kwanza will frustrate and suffocate Gachagua’s political growth and development in Mt Kenya,” he added.

Three-horse race

Gachagua’s ouster bid has dented Ruto’s support in Mt Kenya, the most consequential region in the Head of State’s 2022 victory.

Seemingly aware that he is losing Mt Kenya, the president has focused on securing Nyanza and Western and splitting the Mt Kenya vote by fronting Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki.

If Raila makes a sixth stab at the presidency, Ruto’s chances in Nyanza and Western will be slim, making his re-election bid an uphill task.

“Chances are high that Baba will be on the ballot and the election will be a three-horse race between Kalonzo, Raila and Ruto. Even if Baba wins the African Union Commission seat, his MPs will force him to vie,” said Maanzo.

University professor of leadership and management Gitile Naituli, a member of Azimio’s think tank, foresees a situation that will have the opposition back together by 2026, arguing that the struggling economy will be Ruto’s downfall.

“Ruto will be abandoned by Raila. Mt Kenya will support Kalonzo and Raila will follow former President Uhuru Kenyatta into that coalition. Ruto will be left alone. The question is who will draw in Generation Zs, a force by themselves. They are degrading the money that Ruto would have used to buy them. I see them joining Kalonzo,” said Prof Naituli.

Mokua argued that most politicians will align with Ruto as they would want to “hitch their wagons to a winning team.”