Support or oppose UDA? ODM at crossroads over governance role

From the time four senior members of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) were appointed to Cabinet under the broad based government arrangement, things have never been the same again in one of the country’s oldest opposition party.

The vibrant party which earned its stripes by putting the government in check over its administration of the country, seems to have been thrown in limbo and its members are unsure which path they will ultimately take.

While some members  of the party appear to now have a soft spot for the government and are no longer as vocal as they were previously in criticising it, a section still insists they are in opposition and will continue to undertake their role as ODM.

ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna has insisted that there was no written agreement to join the Kenya Kwanza administration, saying that they will not be misled by short term arrangements but will remain a strong and distinct party.

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Earlier this month, ODM met to deliberate on internal party affairs after which they designated Kisumu Governor, Anyang’ Nyong’o to chair the Central Management Committee (CMC).

The CMC attributed the move to the tasks ahead for their party leader Raila Odinga, who is now focused on the African Union Commission (AUC) campaigns as he seeks to secure the chairman position.

“In light of the grueling campaign schedule by our party leader and the need for him to focus on this, he has designated Nyong’o to chair any and such meetings of the central committee that may become necessary during periods of his absence,” said Sifuna, after the meeting held on September 11.

ODM also cautioned its members saying that they must remain disciplined to avoid actions and words that undermine the party and its organs.

But political analysts have insisted that ODM is now in government, saying the politicians are likely to play their cards carefully because it has its benefits and disadvantages.

Political analyst Barrack Muluka argues that ODM is solidly in government to stay, with its de facto leader Raila accompanying President William Ruto, even on international trips.

In addition, Muluka says there has been outright admission by some Cabinet appointees that Raila presented their names for consideration.

According to Muluka, government is not football team which gives four players on loan to another.

“There may be individual MPs who are articulating things differently, and we know who they are. So you have those isolated voices that are remaining faithful to the original ODM vision. But ODM as a political corporate entity has succumbed to the machinations of UDA and Kenya Kwanza. And they have tested the honey,” he said.

“They are in government. Any other thing they are saying is just hoodwinking. And there is consent just by the fact of the matter but it does not have to be expressed. It has been a little bit different performance even in Parliament. And they will not keep the government in check at all at this rate.”

Similarly, lawyer Bruce Odeny says if ODM declares that they are in government, they may lose the official opposition position and with it, litigation in court might arise with respect to sharing of the party finances.

According to Odeny, the party want to benefit from being in both government and opposition. ODM is defacto in government but dejure in opposition.

“Because there are laws of finances, the opposition parties, depending on the number of seats they have in Parliament, could also lose the position of the minority leader seats. So they are balancing the situation so that they can get the government to back up Raila’s bid for the AUC, which was basically a handshake between Raila and Ruto without other luminaries of Azimio being part of it,” Odeny sought to explain.

“They are benefiting from that situation of sitting on the fence. So they cannot even try to keep the government in check right now,” he added.

At the moment, Odeny said, there are several issues that have arisen in the country, the Adani controversy for instance, which Kenyans expect the opposition to raise their voices about.

“ODM has the biggest voice. And they are the ones who can marshal demonstrators. They are the ones who can marshal enough attention to bring international community to give a lending ear to the problems in Kenya. So, by the fact that they are in government, they are not able to give an effective opposition or keep the government in check,” he adds.

As it is, Odeny says that the country does not have an opposition, unless Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka comes out stronger than he currently is.

“Kalonzo has the best chance. But he is not playing his cards well. He is yet to get his footing right,” he said.

After every election, Odeny says, there is normally a realignment, where the party that loses, if they have the numbers, can be approached by the government to help them push their agendas and their bills in Parliament.

And because they need numbers in Parliament, they also need to convince the electorate so that they do not get a backlash, Odeny argues even as he insisted that Azimio may not survive to 2027.

As this happens, there has been a significant reduction of vigour that the party has had over the years other than instances where  Sifuna and a few others have tried to raise their voices.

On Monday, for instance, there was a heated exchange between Sifuna and former ODM chairman John Mbadi, who is now the National Treasury Cabinet Secretary, over the deal by Indian contractor Adani.

During the Senate committee, there was bitter exchange that ultimately saw Sifuna and two others walk out of the session.

“If the CS is tired of answering questions by the representatives of the people, let him tell us. He can walk out and come at a day he feels his temperament is something that is befitting a Cabinet Secretary. This is Parliament. We are not here to be nice to each other,” Sifuna said.

During the visits, the President has used it as an avenue to campaign for Raila in his AUC bid among African leaders present at the international meetings.