Raila succession war rips through ODM with several interests at play

A fierce succession battle has ripped through Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), as several politicians line up to succeed him as the party’s leader.

ODM’s Central Management Committee, the party’s decision-making organ, will today meet, with reports indicating that Raila could name an interim successor.

Raila is expected to vacate the party leader position next month as he steps up a gear in his quest to replace Moussa Faki Mahamat as the chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC).

Among those in line to succeed the former premier include Governors James Orengo (Siaya), Anyang’ Nyong’o (Kisumu), Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay), Simba Arati (Kisii), Adbulswamad Shariff Nassir (Mombasa) and Senators Edwin Sifuna (Nairobi) and Godfrey Osotsi (Vihiga).

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However, The Standard established that the chairs refused to discuss Orengo’s claim and Raila’s succession, threatening to push for Aladwa’s ouster if he insisted on the subject. The meeting, instead, focused on  Raila’s candidacy for the AUC position and strengthening ODM at the grassroots.

Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa stated that the existing party structures would manage any leadership transitions. “We have resolved that since Raila is still the party leader, our conversation around his succession is premature because we have structures of dealing with appointments of an acting party leader,” Barasa said during a press briefing after the meeting.

He emphasised that ODM’s organisational framework was intact and would be further strengthened, ensuring there would be no leadership vacuum even if Raila was to exit.

Aladwa thanked the president for accommodating the ODM party in government by appointing ODM members to the cabinet. The chairmen expressed support for the recent appointments of the deputy party leaders and the chairperson of the party. 

Several interests are at play with Raila set to take a back seat from the management of his party’s affairs. Orengo has campaigned aggressively among ODM politicians to succeed his long-time ally.

He is seeking to jump the ODM queue. The party’s constitution dictates that the deputy party leader shall assume the leadership in the absence of the party leader. However, the fact that ODM has three deputies complicates the succession matrix.

There are fears that having Osotsi, Nassir or Arati at the leadership could spark a fallout, amid proposals to have a committee of elders take up the leadership on an interim basis.

“Some want a summit or a pentagon of sorts,” said a highly-placed source aware of the developments, who sought anonymity owing to the sensitivity of Raila’s succession.

The former premier is keen to forestall a fallout and is exploring the most cautious approach.

“The decision on who replaces Raila may lead to eruption and an unbridgeable split,” added the source.

Raila is expected to slight the three and, potentially, hand over to a veteran politician. In recent weeks, Orengo and Nyong’o have been the frontrunners. Those who favour the former argue that he has been a loyal supporter of Raila.

But sources said that some within the party are concerned that the Siaya governor is inconsistent and erratic, highlighting his hardline stance against Raila’s broad-based deal with President William Ruto, which he eventually supported in a surprise U-turn.

Nyong’o is favoured for his previous role as ODM’s secretary general and his experience as acting party leader in Raila’s absence in 2013. Those opposed to his claim cite his age, given he is Raila’s agemate and will be turning 79 next month.

A young group of politicians are clamouring for Sifuna, who recently unsuccessfully sought to be Raila’s deputy. Embakasi East MP Babu Owino has also been interested in the position.