Raila's bid for AUC post exposes Kenya's complex political matrix

Azimio leader Raila Odinga’s African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship bid has not only united him with President William Ruto but has also brought into the matrix former President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Since 2018, the President and his predecessor have not been on good terms after the latter shook hands with Raila in what Ruto and his allies interpreted as a scheme to isolate him from the administration he served as the Deputy President.

Their relationship soured after Uhuru supported Raila for the Presidency, a move that provided Ruto with fodder and denigrated their political alliance as that of dynasty against him. He presented himself as an underdog, a son of a peasant farmer carrying the tag ‘chief Hustler’.

The battle lines were drawn, and names and insults were hurled by the two opposing teams. And even after Ruto rose to power, their differences continued to deepen with Ruto’s allies  threatening to table 'The State Capture bill' to investigate ‘corruption that took place during Uhuru’s administration.’

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Uhuru was accused by the Kenya Kwanza administration of all the wrongs afflicting the country, from funding Azimio protests to running down  the country’s economy. Recently, his name was dragged into funding the Gen Z protests.

At the height of the state’s target, in June, Uhuru, through his spokeswoman, Kanze Dena, turned to the media to cry foul after the state failed to release funds meant for the office of the retired President that ran into billions.

But after supporting President Ruto’s sponsored candidate for the AUC chairmanship bid, Uhuru has found himself on the same page with his political rival, his former Deputy.

Uhuru’s support for Raila came against the backdrop of reports that the former President had expressed interests for the AUC bid but later decided to step down in favour of Raila after learning that President Ruto had backed Raila for the bid.

With Ruto, Uhuru and Raila on the same page as they launch an extensive campaign to have Kenya’s candidate succeed Moussa Faki, it remains to be seen whether he will only support Ruto in campaigning for Raila while he opposes the broad-based government where his 2022 preferred Presidential; candidate is part of.

Uhuru’s endorsement of Raila could also vindicate the former premier's claims that it is he who had reached out to Raila asking him to reach out to Ruto to find solutions to the Kenyans’ concerns.

“When the country was in turmoil, former President Kenyatta called me and asked me to reach out to President Ruto to find a solution to the Gen Zs’ concerns. We discussed the situation, and I shared my thoughts on how to address it,” he said on August 13.

However, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni refuted Raila’s claims describing them as a ‘desperation move’.

Apart from Uhuru, Kalonzo and a section of Azimio leaders are supporting Raila’s candidature for the AUC bid but others have vowed ‘to be on the side of Kenyans’ to champion the concerns of Kenyans.

“While our leader embarks on this new chapter, the Azimio Coalition remains steadfast with a firm commitment and shared objectives of addressing the issues of concern to the people. We continue to advance the people’s agenda for socio-economic and political transformation and always build on the foundations laid by our leader,” Kalonzo said in a statement on Tuesday last week.

Political analysts believe the political developments explain the complexities of Kenya's political hygiene, where politics is transactional and not informed by philosophies or causes.

Kioni noted that the broad-based government exposed Kenya’s politics as untidy where the country had no principled leaders, even as he drew differences between the Uhuru-Raila handshake and Ruto-Raila broad-based government.

“The developments show that some of the politicians have been fighting for the proximity of resources and not for the downtrodden. It is unfortunate that the current regime seeks to cripple the opposition, which was in contrast with Uhuru, who did not invite the opposition to his Cabinet,” he said.

He added, “There is so much political prostitution and too many political playboys in the country which is not helping us have fidelity to multiparty, good governance and constitutionalism.

 Prof Gitile Naituli averred that the unfolding of political events showed that Kenya was a conservative society where its ruling class often coalesced when threatened, claiming when Gen Z threatened the political careers of the political elite, they united to protect each other.

“Uhuru squarely fits in the Kenyan political traditions of lacking character. Ideally he would have remained neutral as opposed to supporting a candidate presented by a leader who he does not support. But Kenyan politics is so fluid because it is not character based but transactional,’ Naituli said.

Political analyst Fanya Mambo Kinuthia said that Uhuru endorsing Raila showed that his friendship with Raila was genuine and his move depicted him as a gentleman even as he maintained that Uhuru was the ideal candidate for the AUC bid.

“But the most annoying thing was when I saw President Ruto alight from a plane in China flanked by Raila. For those who should have led us in the opposition, to see them now working together, and for us to hear John Mbadi saying that they are looking for those aspects of the finance bill that they think they should have passed, then we feel thoroughly, totally, and completely betrayed by them,” Kinuthia said.

Former Kiambu Governor Ferdinand Waititu said Kenyan politics is structured in a manner that one considers personal and community interests and not necessarily principals.

He recounted how in 2013, the third president, the late Mwai Kibaki, had shown all indications of supporting Kalonzo for president until the political dynamic changed after the International Criminal Court (ICC) factor that saw Uhuru and Ruto charged.

He explained that after turning down the Speaker position by the Uhuru-Ruto camp, he turned to support Raila’s presidential bid, where he has supported him for 15 years.

“But Raila has gone back to Ruto, leaving Kalonzo in the trenches. Ruto has betrayed Mt Kenya region by failing to fulfil his promises to the people and going against his vow of not bringing Raila into government. This is why Mt Kenya region must rally behind Kalonzo to have a formidable force in 2027,” Waititu said.