Why Raila must bridge Africa's linguistic divide to win AUC chair

The journey for the next African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson is earnestly taking shape, with each country with a candidate working round the clock to have a cut above the rest.

Four candidates, Raila Odinga (Kenya), Mahmoud Ali Youssouf (Djibouti), Kumarsingh Gayan (Mauritius) and Richard Randriamandrato (Madagascar) will battle it out, in a bid to replace the incumbent Moussa Faki Mahamat of Chad.

But from the onset, Raila and his Djibouti counterpart have seemingly set the ball rolling, presenting a high-stakes race, with Kenya set out for an elaborate plan to clinch the seat.

As President William Ruto launched Raila as the Kenyan candidate last week, the Azimio leader said he seeks to work with Heads of State to integrate the continent, having travelled widely and seen faces of Africa’s future.

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“When I see the face of our children, full of hope and energy and bound by the borders of yesterday, I dream of an Africa where those borders and colonial languages no longer divide us. My commitment to the people of the resource-blessed African continent stems from a strong belief in our collective potential. I am ready to serve,” Raila said.

His remarks came against the backdrop of reports pointing to the candidate’s support based on languages that Africans speak.

Countries believed to be categorized as Lusophone or Portuguese speaking include Angola, Cape Verde, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Mozambique as well as Sao Tome and Principe.

On the other hand, the Anglophone countries are said to be a slight majority in the continent followed closely by the Francophones.

Leaders from the East African region have started declaring their support for Raila, with Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni saying tribes cannot bring prosperity and leadership should be part of the socio-economic ‘medicine’ for the continent.

“In the case of AU, I always see people saying I want to be this but what are you going to do… The AU is a crucial point because it can enable us to negotiate together and put pressure on those other groups. I am here to support the candidature of Raila on behalf of Uganda because he is a convinced Pan-Africanist. He is not just a job seeker, this is not career progression or adding to your CV,” said Museveni.

Tanzania President Samia Suluhu has also assured Kenya of its support saying Raila is well versed with development concerns of the continent and his breadth of experience saw him charged with expediting Africa’s integration through infrastructure development.

Suluhu said Raila knows well what the AU needs to do to meet the development infrastructure gaps critical to unlocking Africa’s potential. “I know Raila not only as a wise statesman but also one who can make a strong case in advancing Africa’s development priorities, as such we firmly believe he has what it takes to transform the vision of the assembly into tangible outcomes,” she stated.

“It is all this in mind that Tanzania endorses the candidature of Raila ... He has maintained close relations with successive generations in Tanzania leaders as well as with many African leaders and partners who hold him in high esteem,” she added.

But Mahmoud has also been described as a candidate to watch out for. About two weeks ago, he declared his mission to tour the region for the sake of his campaign and to promote his candidature.

He has been to Kenya, where he indicated that he would not leave any stone unturned if he wanted to succeed, even as he met with Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Cabinet Secretary, Musalia Mudavadi.

“A candidate to the position of the AUC is first and foremost at the service of the continent and the member States and as such, must seek the support of all,” he said.

In 2017 when former CS Amina Mohamed lost to the incumbent Mahamat, reports indicated that Kenya failed to convince its closest allies. Some of the countries that reportedly failed to vote for Kenya included Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti and Tanzania and Kenya is not taking chances this time round.

This came as Ambassador of Djibouti to Saudi Arabia, Dya Bamakhrama said that the 50th session of the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation held in Cameron resolved to support Mahmoud of Djibouti.

Out of the 55 African countries, 48 AU States are eligible to vote and so far, Kenya reportedly has the support of about 25 of them. For a country to win, it requires at least two-thirds of the votes, which is 32 countries or 66 per cent.

Raila is the only Anglophone candidate in the race while the rest are either Arabic or from Francophone countries.

Six countries, among them Djibouti and Madagascar, are however unlikely to vote for Kenya because they either have presented their candidates or are more inclined to the Arabic countries which have a candidate.

As the campaigns progress, the government will be expected to outline all countries in support of Kenya’s push and those that will be newly convinced.

Mudavadi has been fronting Raila’s candidature both locally and internationally, emphasizing on his commitment to Pan-Africanism, unity, development, and Africa’s Agenda 2063 as aligned with the continent’s ambitions.