Nyanza braces for new political dawn as Raila's AUC job beckons

Nyanza is bracing for a major shift in political tectonic plates following the decision by ODM leader Raila Odinga to exit local politics to focus on African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship campaigns.

For decades, Raila’s word was law in the region and he has been the force behind most leader’s political success and failure.

In the region, his Oteku ‘absolute power’ has seen his ODM party sweep nearly all elective seats.

Few leaders have successfully defied Raila and gone against the grain in the region since the mid-1990s.

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Yesterday, as residents began to come to terms with the reality that Raila is exiting local politics to concentrate on AUC chairmanship campaigns, observers said that the development will have a major impact in his Nyanza backyard.

Endorse who will take over

However, some pundits believe that the ODM leader’s political influence in the region will remain and predict that President William Ruto will now have it easy making inroads in Nyanza.

Senior ODM officials told The Standard that Raila’s exit from local politics is bound to give room to new crop of leaders to take over his Nyanza stronghold.

“Raila’s decision means one of us will now rise to the occasion to lead Nyanza but with Raila’s guidance. He has been our lead for long and he is the one who can endorse who will take over his leadership in Nyanza,” said an ODM MP.

Leaders angling to succeed the ODM leader and maintain the grip on the region include Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.

In the recent past, youthful leaders have been working to slice away Raila’s support base in the region. Ugenya MP David Ochieng has embarked on an ambitious membership recruitment drive for his Movement for Democracy and Growth Party while William Ruto’s ally Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo is laying ground to upset the political arithmetic in the region.

Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi had also been tipped to become a big force in the region’s politics. However, it remains to be seen if the former Ugunja MP’s appointment to the Kenya Kwanza government will derail his political ambitions.

Political analyst Mark Bichachi said the exit of Raila from local politics will test ODM’s mettle.

Bichachi predicted that the ODM leader’s move will not only affect Nyanza politics but also Nairobi, Coast, Western and Northern Kenya which are his perceived strongholds.

“If the leadership of ODM keeps the party together and allows democracy and regional balance to guide them they will be able to make it the only party that is not the personality-based,” he said.

However, he warned that if the ODM leaders engage in a supremacy war then the party will disintegrate and to creation of tribal and regional outfits.

Bichachi said that Nyanza may also further split into South Nyanza versus Central Nyanza politics.

Constitutional lawyer Elisha Ongoya said Raila’s exit from local politics is going to change every aspect of Nyanza politics.

He opined that the ODM leader having influenced Nyanza politics for over three decades, his shadow will still be felt for a long time.

“He is the defining element for Nyanza politics for the last three decades. Assuming that he leaves, he will remain indirectly in control of Nyanza politics for a long time,” he said.

Ongoya believes that leaders angling to succeed Raila will also require his blessings.

“Raila will remain in the shadow for a long time in terms of blessing those who have to take over him and advising them,” he said.

Yesterday, a section of ODM leaders maintained that Raila will remain their leader and his influence will continue to be felt in the region.

An MP admitted that the ODM leader’s influence was behind their success in elections saying that the party’s vision will continue to hold the region together.

“Raila always endorses candidates because he is the party leader. He will still have significant influence in the region,” said the MP.

A section of analysts, however, opined that the exit of Raila will ensure competitive politics in Nyanza and will force ODM politicians to work extra hard to win seats.

Constitutional lawyer Joshua Nyamori equated the ODM leader’s exit from local politics to a big whale leaving a pond and going to the ocean, thus letting fish have more space and compete.

Nyamori said as the country moves to the next elections, political godfathers will no longer hold sway.

“Nyanza has never experienced multi-party where people have equal chances of winning irrespective of the parties that they come with,” he said.

Biggest casualties

Raila seems to be taking after his father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga who failed to name a successor but groomed several potential successors.

Some leaders believe that the dominance of the Odinga family in Nyanza politics could be approaching its sunset years with no clear heir to the political throne.

Pundits said that the biggest casualties will be those who have always relied on Raila to win seats. 

Political Communication researcher Dr Charles Nyambuga said: “Those who wholly relied on Raila’s backing will now have to fend for themselves.”

Dr Nyambuga believes that several elected leaders will be negatively affected and might even lose their seats.

He said leaders must work for the people if they have to gain favour.

Migori Woman Representative Fatuma Mohammed maintained that Raila is not exiting local politics but rather going to serve in a more senior position.

Ms Mohammed said that the ODM leader will still indirectly control Nyanza politics.

“What he can’t do is to criticise the president and government,” she said.

She said Raila is still a politician and has the freedom to engage in Kenyan politics.