How Kalonzo can use Azimio's confusion to fill vacuum left by Raila

There is fear that the super coalition government President William Ruto created by incorporating senior ODM party leaders into his administration will stifle critical voices speaking against vices in government and calling for accountability.

As the reality dawns, the bigger challenge is the lack of serious alternative opposition in the country because of the inevitable death of the Azimio la Umoja- One Kenya Coalition that is fast approaching.

It is almost foregone that Azimio will soon split into new probably weaker alliances after opposition leader Raila Odinga decided to work with President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza broad-based government last month.

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Although opinion is divided among the senior rank in ODM over the party’s dalliance with the government, other opposition partners insist that the party cannot be in opposition and government at the same time.

At least three key Azimio players, namely the Democratic Action Party (DAP-K), Narc Kenya and Party of National Unity (PNU) have announced their intention to quit through decisions made by respective National Executive Committees.

“Azimio is still existing but we will be meeting soon to decide its fate. We will be able to hear from the chairman former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is expected to attend the event,” says DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa.

He remains optimistic that all is not lost because Kenya still has people who believe in multi-party democracy and will not fall in the trap of joining President Ruto to form one giant party.

Although Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper has not loudly expressed its discontent over ODM’s decision, sources within the party indicate that they will soon declare their position on the matter.

Supermajority

But can the country get a strong alternative opposition that can effectively check the government which will now have a supermajority in Parliament with over two-thirds support in the House?

Former Nairobi Town Clerk Philip Kisia, a keen observer of the local political scene, agrees that recent developments are a serious blow to the opposition in the country.

“By removing ODM, you leave the opposition with no foundation because Wiper and DAP-K are weaker partners, and Jubilee was also seriously paralyzed by President Ruto last year when he poached about 25 MPs from the party,” says Kisia.

He thinks Kalonzo will now get a big opportunity to come out as a serious alternative to Raila, who has left a vacuum that needs to be filled.

His advice to the seasoned politician is that he should look for support outside Parliament because MPs will most likely be used to frustrate any efforts the former vice president will make as he tries to spread his political influence in different parts of the country.

He says trying to get support from MPs will be a waste of time since they will be easily compromised by the powers that be and that means he must find his strength from the people and completely recalibrate the entire infrastructure of the political space.

“He must build his network and capacity from the citizens, especially now that there is a huge population of dissatisfied, restless and agitated young people,” says Kisia.

The political analyst says this is a low-hanging fruit that Kalonzo should seize without wasting time by ensuring that he immediately finds a way of getting the young people to buy into his political vision.

He further advises Kalonzo to endear himself to that voting demographic that makes up about 70 per cent of the population by coming out as a transitional leader with a clear vision of mentoring as many of them as possible and then ceding to them power after five years.

That way, the Gen Z and Millennials will be happy to work with his team but only if he makes it clear that there is no intention of hanging around for long, and promising to be the vehicle for change that will clear political opportunists and oppressive government out of the way.

“He should tell them that he has done his bit but they just still need a little help to be prepared and be shown the ropes as they come in and take over. He must keep their dreams and hopes alive. He must keep the fire burning and use them to take over,” adds Kisia.

But how will he engage a group that says they are leaderless and party-less? Should he create forums like town hall meetings or create room for regional youth leader’s forums?

No, says Kisia, arguing that many leaders get it wrong through such approaches that expose novel political agendas to opponents, thus creating room for sabotage from powerful forces.

He proposes that they apply what he calls the submarine approach, by making it an underground movement so that by the time it surfaces, all adversaries are caught off guard. Especially because the tech-savvy youth will also provide an even more difficult platform to penetrate.

If Kalonzo does that, it is argued that at time of surfacing, he will be blowing waves into the faces of Ruto and his political allies.

Political analysts also think that support from groups like civil society and religious leaders, which used to be crucial in the past, are now becoming increasingly irrelevant as was recently demonstrated by Gen Z during their protests.

This is because most of them have been completely compromised thus diminishing the impact of the church on politics.

During the first protest in June, the Gen Z used #Occupy Churches, as they blamed men and women of the cloth for allegedly being part of the problem that encourages bad governance and corruption.

Available options

Anglican Church Archbishop Jackson ole Sapit, however, implored them not to abandon the church: “Please come to the church, so that God will give us a future together. Without God, that which you are fighting for will amount to nothing.”

DAP-K leader Wamalwa is quite clear that Azimio is facing a lot of challenges now because their ODM partners cannot have their cake and eat it.

“For us as Azimio to go into bed with President Ruto is a betrayal of the highest order. We have reached a point of divorce. The marriage has broken down irretrievably because of infidelity," he says.

The former Cabinet Secretary says they will provide the checks and balances as the remaining opposition once the ongoing processes of separation are complete.

He says partner parties in Azimio have disagreed with ODM as a matter of principle because Kenyans are saying “save us from Zakayo’s taxation and yet they (ODM) are saying "tuokoe (save) Zakayo” which is unacceptable.

A similar position has been taken by PNU leader Peter Munya, also a former Cabinet Secretary in Uhuru cabinet who clarified that three decisions await Azimio among them the dissolution of the coalition.

“We have three options, including reconciling as a unit, getting out as an individual parties or walking out as a collective which means Azimio is dissolved,” he says.

Wamalwa is more categorical that his party DAP-K will soon give notice to leave Azimio because, from his assessment, it has lost direction and sinned against Kenyans.

He expressed regrets that Azimio agreed to take part in the National Dialogue Committee talks because it was a gimmick to cool down the heat without addressing the issues Kenyans wanted.

Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo has already indicated that the Wiper party will be reaching out to the youth to support them pursue their political ambitions because they do not have a registered party.

But speaking this week, vocal youth leader Kasmuel McOure indicated that they already have 49 social justice centres that they are using to discuss their future endeavours.

“We are doing civic education programmes and writing the constitution in vernacular languages and trying to overcome this monster that is tribalism because this so-called broad-based government has set us back into the tribal cocoons through some sort of appeasement.

The emphasis is on how to achieve the collective goals for all Kenyans through good governance and systems that work and through ideas that some of the most vocal among them are amplifying.