Raila Odinga's changing face on national matters confuses friends and foes

It is tough being Raila Amolo Odinga. How can a man lead the opposition, control over a quarter of Cabinet slots, aspire to be the chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) and still be the go-to protector of the man in the street in the face of adversity? 

The ODM leader is also the person to constantly justify his actions. Believing himself to be on the right side of history, the opposition veteran has often chosen to align himself with the masses. But now he is a man walking the tightrope.

His partnership with President William Ruto is widely viewed as unpopular by Kenya's youth, who have protested for more than a month to have the President resign. And the former premier, the president's unlikely ally, has found himself giving all sorts of reasons for coming to the President's rescue.

"The Head of State came begging on his knees," Raila said. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta had urged him to approach his successor, the opposition leader recently said.

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Amid it all, the ODM leader vehemently denies being in an arrangement with Ruto. But his actions contradict his words. He picked his five allies to join Ruto's Executive - Cabinet Secretaries Hassan Joho (Mining), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives), John Mbadi (Treasury), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) and Beatrice Askul (East African Community).

Observers have viewed Raila's denials as aimed at retaining the opposition's seat in Parliament and an avenue to pull out if things do not work out with the Ruto government. Businessman cum politician Jimi Wanjigi reached the conclusion during an interview on Citizen TV on Tuesday evening.

"William Ruto would want everybody in his sinking ship so that the masses do not have an alternative voice," he said. "Let us wait and see how long they last when they are there because he could jump out before it sinks completely."

Blowing hot and cold

Before their newfound bromance, Raila had blown hot and cold over his association with Ruto. Since he announced his ambitions for African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson, the opposition chief has been somewhat reluctant to hit at the Head of State like he ordinarily would.

Indeed, there have been instances that the ODM leader has gone bare-knuckles against the Kenya Kwanza administration, but they have often come after media criticism that he had gone silent.

Last week, he issued a statement condemning police brutality on peaceful protesters, saying he "stood with the people."

"I want to make it clear that I stand with the people in their quest for justice, freedom, and the full realisation of their rights," said Raila.

But the backlash that met his alliance with Ruto, which he and allies have justified as meant to pull the nation from the brink, shows that the "people" do not see him as standing with them.

"Raila you are no longer Baba. The GenZee-Millennial Movement is now the Official Opposition. Now you are in your fourth -Moi, Kibaki, Uhuru & Ruto - handchequeshake. Always hid in plain sight. May the blood and tears of the young haunt you all your life," former Makueni Governor Kivutha Kibwana posted on X in reaction to Raila's partnership with Ruto.

There are arguments that openly opposing Ruto could be detrimental to the former premier's continental quest, given that he needs the president's support. Some have feared that being antagonistic would send the wrong signals to African Heads of State who will decide the AUC leadership in February next year.

Being the de facto opposition leader has meant that he speaks out against excesses, with Ruto's support of his AUC candidacy presenting a tough balancing act.

"He can't speak up against Ruto. It won't look nice on him," argued university professor of leadership and management Gitile Naituli.

"He is trying to do the impossible - being on both sides. Part of his legacy is that he has always stood with the masses but by also standing with Ruto, people don't believe him anymore, so it's better to fight for Ruto," said Prof Naituli.

Despite his best efforts, Raila seems to be failing at his quest to juggle between leading the opposition and backing Ruto. His allies in the opposition are deserting him one after the other. The opposition leader's running mate in the 2022 presidential election, Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua, has already filed a notice to leave the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition party.

Betrayal

During an interview on Spice FM on Monday, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa said Azimio partners must now divorce, citing "irreconcilable differences."

"For us, as Azimio, to go into bed with Ruto is betrayal of the highest order... We have reached a point of divorce," said Wamalwa.

Party of National Unity leader Peter Munya, argued the same case last week on Spice FM's Situation Room, saying his party would quit Azimio if they were unable to influence any meaningful actions.

"We agreed that it was not right to join the government because the issues pushed for during the Generation Z demonstrations and even those led by our leader have not been resolved," said Munya.

Raila's heir apparent in the opposition, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, finds himself in a dilemma, whether to chart a path away from the ODM leader or stick with him to earn an endorsement in the 2027 presidential race.

While he has opposed Raila's position on dining with Ruto, he remains his ally within Azimio, still choosing to believe there is no partnership between the pair.

"It won't be clever to fight Raila. People who follow Raila don't have a reason to do it and are mostly emotional. There are three people whose minds you can't change - a woman in love, an Arsenal fan and an ODM supporter," he stated.