Raila Odinga's reform legacy at stake as ODM members join Ruto Cabinet

ODM leader Raila Odinga has received a lot of backlash from young Kenyans and fellow opposition leaders after he struck a deal with President William Ruto to form the so-called broad-based government, which his Azimio coalition partners refused to join.

On Saturday, the veteran opposition leader released a statement calling for the immediate release of all protesters arrested during Nane Nane and previous demos organized by Gen Z. But can he recover the goodwill he once enjoyed among many Kenyans?

Just how much damage has his dalliance with Ruto done to his long-standing reputation as a second liberation hero, despite assuring the youth that he still stands with them against any oppression by the government?

“Together, we will continue with this struggle, and together, we will achieve the Kenya we all deserve,” he said in the statement which read like an appeal for their continued support.

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Prof Peter Kagwanja, the Executive Director of Africa Policy Institute, opposes the approach that President Ruto and Raila are using to deal with the demands raised by Gen Z.

He says the issues are clear and it is not about them (youth) working with the government or talks between the government and the opposition.

Kagwanja urged leaders to stop the politics of ethnic balancing and instead focus on the balancing of values, talent and merit because young people want change that can provide jobs, dignity and respect to all Kenyans.

Naituli adds that Raila still has a chance of redeeming himself by pushing the government to achieve good governance and to stop the abuse of human rights by the police.

“If he can do that, it will become the defining character of this government, for which Raila will take all the credit but being a seasoned politician, I think he also knows that politics is about perception. If people see you as a person who is always seeking personal interest as opposed to public good, they discount all the good things you have done in the past,” says Naituli.

While the opposition leader is known for his fight for the broadening of the democratic space, he is also famous for entering into loose coalitions with successive governments.

Last week, after Ruto announced the second batch of Cabinet Secretaries, which included ODM top leaders, some party MPs like Babu Owino and Richard Onyonka, declared that they will take charge of the opposition.

“The new face of Cabinet does not meet the demands of Gen Z. It does not obey the two-thirds gender rule as envisaged in the constitution. It also does not have disability representation,” says Owino.

Political analysts say that although the move to government may have excited some people, especially in Raila’s Nyanza backyard, the damage on his legacy may be massive.

Ahmed Hashi, who worked with Raila in ODM in the past, says the opposition leader has lost the moral authority to speak on behalf of Kenyans.

“His credentials are no longer there. You can see the appointments that he has taken to Ruto, the man who said he can never have anything to do with Mtu wa Kitendawili,” says Hashi. 

He argues that Ruto and Raila have created another nusu mkate government, similar to the one the ODM leader made with President Mwai Kibaki after the disputed 2007 election.

The political analyst sees nothing good coming out of the new government, saying things can only get worse because the administration now lacks checks.

He, however, sees the new development as a boon for the country, because it offers the Gen Z and other Kenyans the opportunity to see how warped and decayed the political class is.

“I think they are going to be swept out of power in 2027. The question is should they be removed from power now or in 2027. The Gen Z have their own idea about that and many of us also have a different opinion about it,” added Hashi. Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo (Wiper) cautioned that a lot of things will change in Parliament because of ODM’s decision to join the government’s side.

“Kenya Kwanza already had a supermajority in the House. It was already running government and so I didn’t see the point of sacking the whole Cabinet and then returning the same old faces,” says Maanzo.

He added that if any of those dismissed CSs had failed in their duties, there was a way of dealing with that and not necessarily embarrassing them because none was told about any wrong they had done or given an opportunity to defend themselves.

Maanzo finds it deceitful that the President chose to announce that he was going to form a broad-based government when he had not addressed the issues raised by Kenyans.

“The broad-based government is an illegality because political parties making such an agreement have to deposit the document with the Registrar of Political Parties, something which has not happened,” says Maanzo.

The MP says the broad-based government will change the voting pattern in the House and also create a lot of confusion because some MPs who sit on the Minority side will not know whether to support or oppose some motions.

Accounting officers

He also thinks nothing much will change in the government despite the opposition joining, because the bigger problem is not CSs but Principal Secretaries who are the accounting officers in ministries.

Another challenge lies in many departments of government that have been seriously weakened like the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions which appears not to be working independently as was witnessed in the controversy with the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Authority during the vetting of CSs.

For ODM to make any meaningful impact, Maanzo says, it should ensure that police officers who killed and injured many people during the youth protests are prosecuted.

“Many bodies are lying in the city mortuary. There are so many injured with gun wounds at Kenyatta National Hospital. We saw a mother asking President Ruto to tell her why her son who was not armed was gunned down. Will all these issues be resolved by the broad-based government?” he asks.