Storm brewing: Raila's gamble on joining Ruto's camp

Political comebacks and calming storms for past governments have been a key feature in ODM leader Raila Odinga’s political life for several decades.

While he was blamed for being the architect of past storms that the governments of former Presidents Daniel Moi, Mwai Kibaki, and Uhuru Kenyatta faced, the country’s current political atmosphere has thrust him into the heart of President William Ruto’s quest for political survival.

His past political wizardry and effortless ability to rally the masses to support his decisions after handshakes turned him into a political fortress, feared by the sitting government and adored by his army of supporters.

Until last year, he was the big boy in opposition who could call protests on and off at will. He enjoyed the monopoly of pushing the government to a corner.

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But times have changed, and Raila is now faced with a huge monster that will either mark the end of his dominance in the country’s politics or propel him to greater power.

As his quest to help Ruto steady his ship that is struggling in a storm orchestrated by Gen Z protests continues, observers believe that the ODM chief might have made a career-ending blunder to team up with Ruto.

His critics and the restless youth are convinced he has betrayed the fight against good governance and has placed his interests as a priority.

His close allies and observers believe the ODM leader is walking a treacherous path that will make or break the political legacy he has built for over 30 years.

"It will besmirch his democratic credentials completely," says communication consultant Dr. Barrack Muluka.

To Ruto and his allies, Raila is a hero who has placed the interests of the country first, while to critics, his push to join Ruto’s government and bag a few cabinet slots for his allies is betrayal.

They claim Raila's greed for power and his interest in the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson bid have guided his political undertaking of joining the government.

According to ODM insiders, consultations is taking place between Raila and Ruto’s team on the next batch of names to be named to join Ruto’s cabinet as part of the move to form a government of national unity.

The move, however, has opened a vast web of conflicts that threatens to crumble Azimio coalition that he leads, his own ODM party and has dented the firm support he has enjoyed across the region over the years.

The open criticisms of his latest move from some of his closest allies spell doom for a man who has lost several key allies after falling out with them on political grounds.

On Friday, his closest ally and one of his confidants Siaya Governor James Orengo criticized the push by the opposition to join hands with President Ruto.

Orengo believes Ruto is the captain of a sinking ship and is convinced that it is a matter of time before the whole Kenya Kwanza regime falls to its knees.

Orengo said it was in bad faith to agree and dialogue with President Ruto before digging deep on the lost lives during the anti Ruto protests and finance bill 2024.

“I want to say that those who are in a rush to join Ruto must know he is a passing cloud.I am saying this without fear of contradiction."

He claimed Ruto's administration is tainted with a lot of ills.

"Putting aside even my position as governor, justice must be done. We must deal with those injustices before even dealing with issues arising because of those injustices," he said.

Governor Orengo while speaking in North Alego, Siaya County, during the burial of Kevin Onyango who was killed during anti-Ruto protests described joining Ruto as a disaster.

Orengo said that Kenyans do not only want Ruto to leave office alone but to leave with his deputy President and entire leadership in government.

Similarly, a senior ODM official, told Sunday Standard that several MPs and close allies of the ODM chief are unsettled by the decision to join forces with Ruto.

“It is clear Kenyans are advocating for change. Ruto has shown a lack of political goodwill to address the problems raised by the youth. He is only rallying ODM to help his leadership to survive,” said the MP.

Another MP who has vowed to continue pushing back against President Ruto’s regime is Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.

‘My decision is to be with the people. I will not support this defunct government no matter the consequences,” says Owino.

Their stand his a stark contrast of that taken by Raila and his other allies in ODM who are fronting the unity with Ruto.

The same, however, does not apply to a number of ODM members who believe Raila has taken a wrong step by backing the government.

On Friday, Kenyans opposed to the move criticized the ODM leader and called for his ouster in the country’s politics. Under the Hashtag “Ruto and Raila must go now”, the disgruntled Kenyans claimed that the entire political class is tainted.

Observers believe Raila has taken a treacherous path but is on a mission to finally retire from politics while enjoying the trappings of government power.

They believe his decision to support Ruto is backed by the threats they faced from a young generation of protestors keen to eclipse the political class that have enjoyed the monotony of organizing protests and calling them off at will.

Political analyst Mark Bichachi says before this move, Raila had already hang his political boots as he went for the AU position.

"Therefore, the fate of his political career is roughly the same," Mr. Bichachi says.

He opines that the test however is whether Gen Zs will accept the political leadership of the opposition or of the mega coalition the president is building.

Bichachi believes in joining or refusing to join the government, politicians are fighting for the support of Gen Zs and the cooling of tensions.

"The choice therefore is up to Gen Z who have chosen to vote with their feet," he says.

Constitutional Lawyer Clifford Obiero says Raila's political career has gone continental and global hence he cannot afford to localize his mind.

"He must confine himself to what he truly believes is best for our country, regardless of others' opinions; wisdom is the ability to choose the better option when faced with two awful ones, and that is exactly what Raila is doing," Lawyer Obiero says.

He believes Raila will be selfish if he does not accomplish what he is doing.

Communication specialist and analyst Charles Nyambuga says the dissent is serious and it will perceptibly reduce the Raila following.

He thinks Gen Z is a new phenomenon in our politics and the political landscape is rather different now.

"They mostly did not vote in the last elections but are now politically mobilised to vote against the establishment and all their sympathisers," Dr. Nyambuga says.

Some observers, however, are confident the ODM chief has made the right step to help restore stability in the country's politics.

Constitutional Lawyer Joshua Nyamori believes Raila's move is not a mistake and it will be good to both him and President Ruto.

"Raila Odinga is not young and has seen the better days of his political life and therefore he is at the stage where he must of essence slow down in his political activity and needs to come out as a statesman, the elder in the country," lawyer Nyamori says.

Nyamori believes that when Raila and Ruto come together, then it is more or less of a representation of the cross-section of Kenya.

"That government should then be mandated to lead towards cessation of violence of any nature, offer humanitarian support to those affected by the violence and focus on the political stability of the country and dealing with long-standing historical issues that affect the socio-economic growth and unity of the country," Nyamori says.

He believes it is the right decision that will move the country forward.