Ruto-Raila alliance: Will it lead to political survival or ruin?

Power. President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga hold it in plenty. They control their allies and significant sections of the masses.

At any other time in history, the pair's new-found partnership would have helped them consolidate unparalleled power. It still could, especially in parliament, where it has seemed to matter the most for the Head of State.

Going by recent history, having Raila on board guarantees the president near absolutism in the Legislature. It was the case after the opposition leader's handshake with former President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2018, which made Raila meek in calling out government excesses.

Ruto's grip on parliament will, undoubtedly, be firmer, given that he is yet to face an out-and-out resistance from within his ranks. Any little opposition from disgruntled Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya parties will be mostly insignificant.

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For nearly two years, the president has made light work of an opposition that had Raila's Orange Democratic Movement in it. Without ODM, as Nyaribari Chache Member of Parliament Daniel Manduku said recently, "the opposition is dead", at least the opposition as Kenyans know it.

Ruto gains that - control of Parliament, but at a huge price. While he wins allies who should help him weather the assault from unrelenting Generation Zs and Millennials, observers have concluded that he has lost the people.

Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua reached this conclusion weeks ago when he wondered how far a once popular government had fallen.

"How did we get here? We were just elected the other day as a very popular government. Where did the rain begin to beat us?" Gachagua posed.

Never before has the country witnessed mass protests on the scale witnessed on June 25, which saw  parliament breached and ended in a series of concessions from what many have termed a "subdued" president, the most significant of which was the near dissolution of the Cabinet.

And when he recycled six of his former ministers on Friday, Ruto squandered the chance to set things right, hence the backlash that greeted his Cabinet announcement.

"By ignoring the Gen Zs, the president confirms that he will not change," argued leadership and management professor Gitile Naituli. "He has shown that it is hard to associate the truth with him because he promised a professional Cabinet."

Nearly two years after he gloated about defeating Raila, Ruto is forced to invite him to his feast. In an ideal situation, the Head of State would have kept Cabinet slots for his allies, as he had until the Gen Zs forced him into capitulation.

By inviting the opposition to dine with him, the president loses the spoils that should have gone to his friends. In many ways, he cedes some control to his arch-rival in exchange for political survival, given that some of his appointees will be loyal to another centre of power in Raila and Gachagua.

Before he reached out to the opposition, Ruto was fighting fires in his house, sparked by his deputy. Gachagua's allies in Mt Kenya have kept the heat up, demanding the lion's share of Cabinet positions.

Ruto, seemingly, yielded to their demands, selecting six out of 11 cabinet secretaries from Mt Kenya at the expense of establishing a Cabinet with a national outlook.

"It is too early to comment on the Cabinet until we have the full list," said Uriri MP Mark Nyamita. The face of Kenya is not yet out. We are anxious and expectant."

Politicians from the region have often been restless about partnerships that include Raila, which previously inspired their exodus from Uhuru's Jubilee Party. However, Prof Naituli argued that that would not be a factor among Gen Zs and Millennials, whose movement transcends ethnic barriers.

Doubtless, Ruto's war with Gachagua, and the pressure from Gen Zs and Millennials, forced him into seeking a truce with Raila. Journalist Sam Gituku recently assessed Ruto's invitation to the opposition as aimed at "spreading the political risk".

For a month, the youth have focused the heat solely on the president. Recently, however, Raila has received some of the criticism that he had avoided when he sat out the anti-government protests.

In this case, Ruto's gain is Raila's loss. Like he did when he paired up with Uhuru, Raila risks assuming some of Ruto's baggage, which has always not sat well with the masses.

"Raila has said that he is not saving Ruto but the country and I trust his judgement," said National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi.

Throughout his career spanning over three decades, the former premier has earned a reputation as a man of the people. Enjoying unquestionable loyalty among his supporters, he has mobilised them to fight his fights.

Many of Raila's diehards will likely follow him into his union with Ruto, a win for the president who could also reap support in his 2027 re-election bid.

But Raila will lose others, as contended historian Timothy Onduru, who teaches at Moi University.

"To some extent, Raila could lose some sections of Azimio supporters, especially among those who oppose the broad-based government," argued Dr Onduru.

Indeed, in recent weeks, his supporters have pushed him to make U-turns uncharacteristic of the opposition veteran.

Nearly a fortnight ago, Raila was all-in for talks with Ruto that would yield a coalition government. Following online backlash, the former premier retreated days later.

"Nimeambiwa na hawa vijana kwamba mmesema hamtaki handshake. Ujumbe umefika (These young people have told me you don't want a handshake. The message is home)," Raila captioned a photo of himself and senators Edwin Sifuna and Eddy Oketch, among others, he posted on his social media handles.

Boxed to a corner by mourners during a funeral in Kakamega last weekend, Raila clarified that he was only interested in a people-led dialogue and not one convened by the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.

A day later, as he addressed a charged crowd at Kware in Nairobi's southeast, Raila was unequivocal about wanting "no dialogue" ahead of talks, which were to start last Monday.

That preceded reports that his ODM party had accepted some seven slots granted to the larger Azimio coalition, issuing a statement supporting dialogue.

Raila's contradictory statements in recent days, undoubtedly, risk painting him as undecided, a quality never previously associated with him.

Amid all this, he is losing support among Gen Zs who had asked him to keep off the protests, initially arguing that he had done enough for Kenya in the past. Many have accused him of siding with the oppressor, Ruto, who they now want out of office.

"Raila has been trying to cut down the tree and has failed. If another person comes along and is more successful, you should just let him finish the job," said university lecturer Francis Owakah.

Dr Owakah, a philosopher, read the former prime minister's actions as an act of betrayal, arguing that they had the potential to dent his legacy. Prof Naituli agrees.

"Ruto gains massively and Raila loses terribly. Ruto is extremely unpopular and Raila will sanitise him like he sanitised Uhuru, who was equally as guilty as Ruto but is remembered by some as a good person. Raila has been popular with the masses and that is why they made him the 'people's president'. Raila will end up carrying Ruto's sins" said Prof Naituli, arguing that the former prime minister would have won the last election had he avoided Uhuru.

Raila also stands to lose his friends in Azimio, who include former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, the ex-premier's solid ally over the last decade. The Azimio leader has tasted this bitter pill, having fallen out with staunch allies, some of whom will be his friends again.

Ahead of the 2022 presidential election, he split up with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula, among others. Consequently, Raila lost to Ruto by a margin that keeping his old friends would have covered.

A decade earlier, he lost Ruto to Uhuru and the Rift Valley bloc that the former delivered for the former premier in the 2007 polls, an election he went into without Kalonzo's support after their bitter fallout.

On Friday, the breakaway Azimio faction rejected Ruto's overtures, terming it a betrayal of Kenyans and the coalition's ideals.

"We shall not participate in or support the proposed Kenya Kwanza-led broad-based government of national unity. This is a betrayal of the Kenyan people, particularly Gen Z and millennials, who have paid the ultimate price to rid this country of the disastrous Kenya Kwanza regime," said Kalonzo.

But it is not all downhill for Raila, who is counting on Kenya Kwanza to realise his latest political dream - chairing the African Union Commission. Since Ruto endorsed him for the job, Raila toned down attacks against the Executive, perhaps careful not to appear antagonistic.

Bagging position for his restless allies should be a win, too. Over the years, Raila's allies have supported him hoping to land lucrative appointments. Successive election losses have condemned them to political Siberia. 

In recent months, a host Azimio and ODM honchos have grown restless over Raila's inevitable retirement, hoping to take over when he hangs his boots.  

The argument from allies of Ruto and Raila has been that the nation, whose stability they have said was threatened, stood to gain from the national dialogue. Wandayi held this view, arguing that the country should always be open to talks.

"No particular person gains but the country. Any genuine dialogue will result in a direct benefit for the people. Dialogue must always be encouraged as it has no price. It should be a way of life," said the Ugunja MP, views Dr Onduru, the historian, shared.

"We can't let the country go down the drain and when there is political stability there are no losers," added Dr Onduru.