Air travel has become increasingly accessible, and by 2030, the number of aircraft in the skies is expected to rise from about 25,000 to nearly 40,000 annually. Equally, the number of passengers flying annually is expected to nearly double in the next 20 years, with over four billion more people flying annually by 2036, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This surge in air travel raises significant concerns about climate change.
Greenhouse gases, widely accepted as a major cause of global warming and climate change, trap heat from the sun in the Earth's atmosphere, causing global temperatures to rise. The main greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide and methane, primarily produced by burning fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas. These fuels account for over 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change is causing the planet to warm faster than ever before, disrupting the balance of nature and posing risks to life on Earth.
The transport sector is responsible for about 15 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions, ranking fourth after electric power, industry, and agriculture-forestry-land use sectors. Road transport is the largest source of emissions, responsible for about 69 per cent of all transport emissions. Aviation accounts for about 12 per cent, and shipping about 11 per cent of total transport emissions. Without any interventions, greenhouse gas emissions from the transport industry could grow by up to 65 per cent by 2050. However, successful action to tackle greenhouse gases could reduce transport emissions by 68 to 80 percent.
The aviation industry is aware of its role in this issue. Over 100 countries have committed to the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) goals to reduce carbon emissions and contribute to net-zero global metrics. Through use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and other cleaner energies, ICAO aims to reduce emissions in international aviation by 5 per cent by 2030. Significant progress has been made within the ICAO global framework, and over $42 billion invested to achieve this goal.
Drastically reducing carbon emissions in the transport sector will require transformative measures, including demand and efficiency plans, electro-mobility, and alternative fuels for shipping and aviation.
While options for decarbonizing shipping and aviation still require more research and development, advanced biofuels, ammonia, and synthetic fuels are emerging as viable options. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are seen as having the greatest potential to reduce CO2 emissions from international aviation.
SAF are renewable or waste-derived aviation fuels that meet sustainability criteria. They are biofuels used in commercial aviation to power aircraft, with similar properties to conventional jet fuel but capable of reducing CO2 emissions by up to 80 percent. SAF is produced using feedstock, which consists of renewable, biological materials such as cooking oil, plant oils, and agricultural residues.
Current international aviation regulations only allow up to 50 percent of SAF in jet fuel blends. However, research has shown that jet engines are just as receptive to SAF as they are to conventional fuel. Airlines are rapidly proving that SAF could completely replace conventional fuel if it were more affordable and plentiful.
However, the adoption of SAF faces several challenges. SAF is more expensive to produce than traditional jet fuel, making it significantly more expensive than conventional jet fuel. This makes it less attractive to airlines already operating on thin margins. Joint public-private investments and bulk production of SAF globally could reduce costs and increase availability as aircraft fly and refuel across continents.
The expense of the production process, along with the lack of supply, has caused SAF to be about three times more expensive than conventional jet fuel. Global shocks in fuel pricing affect airline operation costs for cargo and passenger flights by about 40 percent overall. Current production is less than one percent of the global jet fuel demand, with hopes that this figure will grow to 2 per cent by 2025. Many still feel that a gallon of SAF is often over 100 percent more expensive compared to fossil jet fuels.
While the supply of SAF is limited, making it difficult for airlines to meet their needs, several airlines have started using SAF, including KLM, Lufthansa, Delta, and American Airlines. There are also limited SAF production centres, which cannot currently meet the demand of traditional jet fuel users. A handful of major SAF production facilities are currently operating worldwide. There is also intense competition for feedstock used to produce SAF. Road transportation uses a large portion of liquid biofuels, which are also used to produce SAF.
Policy and legislation challenges impacting the industry for the production of SAF need to be addressed. Europe and the United States, the centres of commercial aviation, have different opinions on how best to encourage the usage of SAF.
While European countries favor tax penalties and use requirements, the US favors incentives, as tax penalties are unlikely to be approved by the US Congress. Industry players estimate that SAF could contribute around 65 percent of the reduction in emissions needed by the aviation industry to meet net-zero objectives in the future. This will require a massive increase in production to meet demand. The largest acceleration is expected in the 2030s as policy support becomes global, SAF becomes competitive with fossil kerosene, and credible offsets become scarcer.
With global passenger movements expected to grow from about four billion flights per annum to nearly 16 billion per annum by 2040, the aviation industry must bridge the gap and develop alternatives to make flying more environmentally friendly. Private-public sector partnerships can produce SAF in bulk, making this fuel mainstream and available worldwide.
- Diaz Business Leader and Executive Chairman Adili Group
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