Rigathi Gachagua's impeachment alters political dynamics

Things may get hotter should the Kenya Kwanza top brass decide to de-whip those who voted against the grain. Away from the Mountain, it is to be expected that the opposition, particularly the ODM party, will demand more from their newfound Kenya Kwanza political buddies. Ever since the entry of six ODM leaders into the Kenya Kwanza government, the opposition has largely sung to the tune of the ruling coalition. So, should ODM demand its pound of flesh, there will likely be a purge in Parliament, where some of the MPs who have not been toeing the line. This could shift political dynamics in a way that may upset the game, even for the political chess masters pushing the cards behind the scenes.

Another interesting thing to watch is how opposition leader Raila Odinga’s bid for the African Union Commission’s top seat will go. Even if he wins the seat, it would be preposterous to assume that he will just go to Addis Ababa and have no say in local politics henceforth. In fact, some feel that Raila welcomed the government’s support for the seat knowing full well the implicit political meaning it carried. This school of thought feels Raila may take up the AUC seat and still return to the country midstream and run in 2027. Or that he could rally his troops behind whomever he wants even from Addis. Again, should he keep off politics come 2027, it is not automatic that his huge following will rally behind Ruto and the current ruling coalition. The widespread uproar over SHA, industrial strikes, university funding and so on militate against this too.

A big factor why it may be difficult to expect anyone to inherit Raila’s or any other leader’s political following in 2027 has largely to do with the Gen-Zs. These young Kenyans have been reminding us that they are ‘tribeless’, and that they are concerned about public service, not who is their tribe’s kingpin. They couldn’t care less for the political ‘waves’ that have decided the outcomes of elections for the longest time. Thanks to this vote-rich social category, we may be on the cusp of a new political awakening.

So, what trajectory are these changes likely to take. Well, follow the numbers. Suppose, even after ‘returning’ the DP’s post to the Mountain, it becomes clear that Ruto may not get a lot of votes from there come 2007. What then? In that case, he could decide to look for a running mate from another region, presumably Western Kenya, Nyanza, Coast or even North-Eastern Kenya. Should he do that, his top competitor will be keen to clinch the Mountain’s support.

What this means is that, while some other factors may not be clear now, you already have what is shaping up to be a hard-fought electoral duel. And this a whole three years to Kenya Kwanza’s date with the voters.

What if Raila decides perhaps this time the Mountain may give him their votes, if only to say sorry to Uhuru Kenyatta While a day in politics is a long time, Gachagua’s ouster has changed Kenya’s politics forever.