Polls can't gauge government performance

Back to polls. Ideally, opinion polls ought to be anchored on scientific methodologies that can distil the collective voice of the populace—with a high level of precision—into digestible statistics and narratives.

However, recent events and critiques have shed light on the limitations and pitfalls of relying solely on opinion polls as a measure of the efficacy of the government’s performance. No wonder, many opinion polls ‘findings’ in Kenya generate more heat than light.

Pundits eagerly dissect these numbers, interpreting them as indicators of performance. Yet, beneath the veneer of objectivity, lies a labyrinth of complexities that render opinion polls a weak measure of government performance. Let us explore a few reasons that inform this view. One fundamental flaw of opinion polling is its susceptibility to sampling biases. Despite attempts to imbue representativeness, pollsters hardly capture the diversity of the population accurately. Factors such as demographic disparities, technology-related divides and differential response rates do easily skew poll results leading to a distorted portrayal of public opinion. Consequently, the voices of marginalised communities and those with limited access to polling platforms are frequently left out.

Moreover, opinion polls are, by and large immotile, rendering them inept and inapt as tools capable of capturing the width and breadth of a society’s shifting dynamics. When realities and attitudes evolve in response to unfolding events and changing circumstances, poll results easily become inconsequential.

Furthermore, opinion polls often prioritise breadth over depth thereby sacrificing nuanced insights at the altar of mere numerical parades. Closed-ended questions common in survey instruments often limit the extent of responses concealed in broader worldviews that remain under interrogated. As a result, poll results end up oversimplifying public sentiment and overlooking less obvious values, views and beliefs.

In addition to methodological shortcomings, opinion polls are susceptible to manipulation and bias in both their conduct and interpretation. Survey wording, order and framing of questions can subtly influence responses leading to skewed results. Besides, media portrayal and partisan spin often cherry-pick poll results to advance preconceived narratives thus perpetuating echo chambers and reinforcing existing biases.

In light of these critiques, we are better off adopting a more holistic approach to assessing government performance by choosing performance markers that transcend restricted confines of opinion polls.

Qualitative methodologies such as focus groups and deliberative forums offer valuable insights into the lived experiences and contextual appreciation of issues. Fostering a culture of open dialogue and civic engagement can empower citizens to become co-creators of public perceptions. In an era of misinformation and polarisation, reliability of opinion polls as an objective measure of government performance ought to be called to question. Only then shall we move beyond the smokescreen of opinion polling and avoid staining our national soul.

The writer is a board director at Rural Electrification and Renewable Energy Corporation