Kenya's high octane politics three years to next general elections

As Kenyans continue to demand services from the government decrying the high cost of living, the political class whose core mandate is to provide leadership to country, is seeking alignments for the 2027 elections.

The 2027 presidential contest is looking to close in on President William Ruto against Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka who, through their public declarations, are bent on their presidential bids.

Politicians with presidential ambitions have begun to declare their interest in the top seat in a duel that is three years away.

Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah already expressed his interest in the country’s top job as former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiangi is said to be engaged in a boardroom strategy ahead of 2027.

President Ruto, on his part, seems to be casting his net outside Mt Kenya region, which pundits say has been drifting away from him by the day, following the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua, a decision that a section of the Mt Kenya region electorate interpreted to be an affront on them. 

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The contrast between Nyanza and Mt Kenya, where in one the electorate are giving him a heroic welcome and in the other, the residents have lost patience with the President, suggests that Ruto will be looking to other regions for support in 2027.

Pundits aregue that Ruto is seeking to interpret his support for Raila’s African Union Commission chairperson bid as a strategy to inherit his backyard to fill the void that will emerge after losing Mt Kenya region, which overwhelmingly voted for him in the 2022 general elections. 

Addressing two rallies in Kisumu, Ruto gave his strongest indication yet of strengthening his political union with opposition leader Raila with significant implications for the country’s political landscape, as he wooed Nyanza with a package of goodies.

 “In the past, I helped Agwambo, and this time around, he has returned the favour. Is there any problem? Should we continue or not?” an upbeat President asked even as jubilant residents cheered him on, chanting "kumi" (ten years) to show their support for a second term for the Kenya Kwanza leader.

Kalonzo, on the other hand, is using all the tricks to inherit Ruto’s vote from Mt Kenya region where he has held boardroom meetings with opinion leaders and former MPs before his numerous meetings in the region.

Presenting himself as an in-law of the region, Kalonzo has in many occasions reminded the region how he supported President Mwai Kibaki’s government "to stabilise the country" after the contested 2007 presidential election that was followed by the infamous post-election violence.

When Gachagua was admitted at the Karen hospital at the backdrop of his impeachment, Kalonzo, who was critical of the ouster bid, directed Wiper party MPs and senators to oppose the motion.

Pundits believe Kalonzo has been trying to present himself as an alternative candidate and that Gachagua, given that he may not vie for the presidency owing to his impeached state, may mobilise and consolidate the region behind Kalonzo.

“So far, Kalonzo has tried to endear himself to the region but he still has a long way to go. He needs to increase his vigour and oomph to show that he is a courageous leader who can take Ruto head on in the 2027 general elections,” Lawrence Murangiri, a political observer noted.

In what could be described as Kalonzo’s major gain, Akamba community was on Wednesday re-integrated back to Gema community but Murangiri feels Kalonzo has to turn that win to win votes.

“The elders from Mt Kenya region took a position in the 2022 general elections and supported Raila but it did not yield votes. Therefore, Kalonzo has to find a way of ingraining the social pact between the two communities to an extent that they will vote in one basket,” he noted.

As Kalonzo and Ruto are busy planning for the 2027 political game plan, Omtata has officially launched his presidential exploratory mission by establishing a 10-member committee to assess his viability to run for President in 2027.

The committee, led by Mary Kathomi and composed of political strategists, activists, and legal experts, will conduct nationwide opinion polls to gauge Omtatah’s popularity, assess his chances of securing the presidency and gather insights on his appeal while strategising ways to outmaneuver potential opponents in the political landscape.

“I am committed to listening, learning, and building a platform that reflects the values and priorities of our citizens. My focus is not going to be diminished. I know there is a fight to dislodge President William Ruto and I am ready," said Omtatah.

Matiang'i is also said to be readying himself for the 2027 Presidential bid.

Analysts have cautioned that with the current mood of political alignments for 2027 general elections, Kenyans should not expect meaningful development projects as ethnic banalization may influence the 2027 game plan.

“With Gema regrouping to include Akamba, with Kalonzo and Gachagua axis also angling for Abaluhya votes and to some extent seeing to consolidate the Bantu as a voting block with Ruto Raila axis trying to influence Coast, it shows that ethnicity and regional voting blocs may be the order of the day,” Kamau Wairuri political scientist and a policy-oriented researcher noted.

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