Is it a wave of change or accidental windfall as incumbents lose hold?

Dramatic presidential elections are, and have been in the last few weeks, happening in Africa. To the surprise of many observers, incumbents are suffering heavy losses to the opposition.

But the curse of disputed polls, post elections protests and violence, however, still hangs over the continent’s electoral systems and democracy. A case in point is what is happening in Mozambique at the moment.

Not all is gloom, though, because polls held last month in Botswana unexpectedly brought to an end the 58-year rule of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which had been in power since the country’s independence in 1966.

Barely a month later, this week the ruling coalition in Mauritius was also kicked out by voters in another major upset, leading to the appointment of opposition leader Navin Ramgoolam, who returns to power after a decade as the new prime minister.

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Those elections follow a similar pattern seen last year in Senegal where tax inspector and founding member of Patriots du Senegal (PASTEF) opposition party, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who had just celebrated his 44th birthday, emerged the surprise winner with a landslide victory against incumbent Macky Sall.

Focus now shifts to Ghana where on Saturday December 7, about 19 million registered voters will visit polling stations to take part in the country’s ninth general election since the re-introduction of multiparty politics.

From 1992, only candidates from either the National Democratic Congress (NDC) or the New Patriotic Party (NPP) have won presidential polls. The question is whether the country will get a new president from 10 other political parties that are also fielding candidates.

Politics pundits have given several reasons why the political landscape in Africa appears to be shifting, although it is only happening in very few countries that regularly hold presidential elections.

Peter Kagwanja, a political scientist, argues that most of the changes taking place are influenced by different factors, but voting along ethnic and sectarian lines, fallouts among key personalities, and the stability of ruling parties have played a major role in deciding who becomes president in those countries.

Prof Kagwanja says in Botswana, the role of former President Ian Khama, who had been supporting the opposition since his fallout with the outgoing president who also served as his vice president Mokgweetsi Masisi played a key role in the latter’s resounding defeat.

Kagwanja also pointed  out that the observance of the rule of law has also played its role in delivering some credible elections in countries where the opposition has successfully taken over leadership without much acrimony.

That is because of the constitutional provisions that provide checks and balances that to some extend stop incumbents from arbitrary abuse power or engaging in open electoral malpractices.

“Debate around respect for the Constitution, predictability of elections, stability of institutions that run elections and their capacity have all contributed in a few countries that you see those changes,” says Kagwanja.

He also thinks countries that have electoral management organs that have their own budgets, staff and a leeway to conduct elections without interference provide a platform for results that are to a certain degree agreeable to all the parties.

Kanu chairman Gideon Moi, who chaired the Commonwealth Expert Team (CET) that observed the Botswana elections, however, highlighted the role Gen-Z voters played in routing out the President and other BDP candidates.

Their large turnout on voting day took many by surprise, largely because they voted across tribal lines because they wanted change, and in the process played a key role in getting the president and his team out of power.

“The young people in Botswana united, considered the challenges facing them and the country and decided to make choices that will protect the future of their country,” said Mr Moi.

From his analysis, political scientist Amukoa Anangwe, however, posits that changes that have taken place in a few African countries are merely cosmetic because almost the entire continent is full of pseudo democracies.

“I have been to about 21 African countries, where we raised the question; are elections in your country free and fair? We did it in focus groups discussions and there is no place where they said yes, be it in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Africa and everywhere we went,” says Prof Anangwe.

So from that study, it emerged that the people themselves believe that the electoral process is not legitimate because it only plays the role of putting new leaders into office and thereafter everything becomes business as usual. He argues that for proper democracy to thrive, all countries should have an environment that, apart from holding elections, there is also free media, an effective electoral management body, the right culture devoid of intimidation and manipulation and other aspects that give room to choose freely.

Anangwe says many African countries lack attributes that make the democratisation process complete because although they conduct regular elections, it is just what some scholars have described as electoral democracy.

It simply means that essentials and fundamentals of democracy do not exist because elections merely take place for people to vote and candidates to compete, notwithstanding flaws that corrupt the process.

 “The situation is bad to the extent that it is not those who vote that matter because those who count the votes are the ones who determine the outcome,” says Anangwe.

And so from his analysis, wins by the opposition in Botswana, Mauritius and Senegal, among other few countries, resulted more from lack of organisation and infighting by those in power than a true application of democratic values.

The small number of countries that have witnessed successful political change also support his hypothesis that they cannot be used to measure the prelude of a new democratic dispensation on the continent.

His argument is supported by what is happening in Mozambique, where the government has banned protests following daily post-election unrest that has left about 30 people dead.

The violence started after Frelimo candidate Daniel Chapo was declared the winner in last month’s presidential poll with more than 71 per cent of the vote as opposition leader Venancio Mondlane went into hiding after his lawyer and aid were killed while trying to file a petition.

Asked if attitude, change and awareness, especially among young voters will help drive change, Anangwe again remains pessimistic because demographics in all countries are populated by a huge bulk of youth, a small and weak middle class and a sprinkling of extremely wealthy people.

“Democracy is sustained by a real middle class that is full-fledged and one that stands to benefit from the values of democratisation, a group that is aspiring to rise higher because they want opportunities, jobs and better living standards. But in Africa, this demographic is too small to anchor that process,” added Anangwe.

The fact that many voters in Africa also vote out of ignorance or are easily influenced by other factors like bribery, also means that they don’t understand the impact of their voting power.

Asked if the excitement created by young soldiers who have taken over power in some countries in the Sahel region will have any impact in improving governance and proper utilisation of resources, the former University of Nairobi and Dodoma University don, again, says not much may be realised.

That is because they have been in power for some time now and yet little has been delivered, and that means,like others before them, those young leaders will become victims of their own effort to bring change through more coup d’etats.

Kagwanja argues democratic institutions have become increasingly mature and also because, in countries like Kenya, players from across the political divide are nominated to serve in the electoral body.

Because pro-democracy activists from the west are no-longer pushing African countries to have people they support in power, the electoral process is now locally driven.

“In Africa, incumbents don’t lose elections that easily,” said Anangwe as he paraphrased Uganda President Yoweri Museveni, who said: “How can you lose an election that you are managing, planning and financing?”