Why Gachagua's survival depends on ending alliance with Ruto

The other factor is that until 2016, Gachagua was still Uhuru Kenyatta’s right-hand man. Ruto had no other person to fit as Uhuru’s political proselyte in Mount Kenya.

That is why as time passed, the gods aligned things in Ruto’s favour in ways many pundits could not fathom—when he chose Gachagua as his running mate, many questioned his wisdom.

Will the same case apply to the Kenya Kwanza regime? Not at all. UhuRuto’s government was different from Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza government. Ruto cannot repeat Uhuru’s script in his political chess game.

First, the Kenya Kwanza government has already incorporated the opposition into its administration. This alone gives Raila Odinga an upper hand in the government over the deputy president, who is simply an appendage of the presidency with no elected members. Doesn’t that reduce his negotiation power?

Further, there is a high chance that Ruto will drop Gachagua in 2027. This is the biggest dilemma, and it must come to pass. Seemingly, Gachagua has already sensed it.

With this possibility, Gachagua must occasionally stick his legs on the Kenya Kwanza plane. If he fails to strengthen himself to the point of being Mt Kenya’s kingpin, he is finished. 

An undertaker is someone who prepares a body for burial or cremation. While Rigathi’s complacency can be his political undertaker, Ruto must remember this: Raila can finish him if he fails to do his math correctly. Why do I say so?

The majority of Kenyans who voted for Ruto did so because they hated Raila. Fact! Those who hate Raila still do so. Fact.

Another large chunk voted Ruto to frustrate Uhuru’s choice. Kenya still has that chunk of emotional voters who do not believe in giving a president a second chance based on immediate gratifications. Fact.

The rest voted for Ruto and Gachagua because of their tribe. This number remains constant, and they are Generation X and Y voters. They will still be there in 2027. I won’t talk about the rest.

That said, the Political Chessboard confirms the fears that it will be by grace if Ruto has Gachagua as running mate in 2027. This is because Gachagua’s ‘feeling’ toward Ruto is not the same as it was toward the 2022 general elections.

Therefore, as fate would have it, nothing holds Ruto and Gachagua together. Ruto does not require Gachagua in 2027. Likewise, Gachagua does not need Ruto in 2027 to build his kingpinship over the mountain—he is on his own.

There is another twist. If President Ruto decides to bring the Raila factor into his 2027 presidential bid full throttle, the mountain will be divided. Ruto will have a daunting task winning big in the mountain because all signs are that he is investing a lot in Luo Nyanza and western Kenya.

The other option Ruto has to keep his foothold in the mountain while keeping Raila is to empower a leader from there to neutralise his deputy. Do we have such a leader in the Mount Kenya region? Is Gachagua aware of this window? That’s a story for another day.

 -Dr Ndonye is a senior lecturer at Kabarak University’s Department of Mass Communication