Raila Odinga's political power lies in his ability to turn weaknesses into strength

Two unusual men stand out in post-colonial Kenya, the resilient Raila Amolo Odinga and the crafty William Samoei Ruto. Both men cut their political teeth in the latter part of the 20th Century, enjoy stiff power competition and cooperate once they identify a supposed common foe to overcome.

They were, circa 2000, Daniel arap Moi’s protégés before a disappointed Raila jumped to join Mwai Kibaki’s winning side in 2002 to form NARC. They worked together in the 2005 Referendum and in the 2007 Pentagon which landed Ruto at The Hague. Although they parted company in 2013, 2017, and 2022, they have found new forces to bring them together, mostly the unexpected challenge from the Gen Z uprising. Although both are politically self-made, Raila is dynasty as scion of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, the anti-colonial firebrand.

Ruto is a socio-politico-economic ladder climber, displacing those ahead of him. He is calculative, swift of mind, enjoys ruthless cut-throat competition and is bafflingly quick to act. He, however, suffers the disease of brilliant people who know they are brilliant. They tend to be insecure among other bright minds, ignore advice, surround themselves with those they can brow-beat to silence, and like the flattery that goes with sycophancy.

Permitting vanity to prevail, they lack the temperament that checks brilliance into political reality in times of crisis. They, in the process, tend to insult the intelligence of the public because they know and they subsequently cannot, therefore, handle crises when they arise.

This reality hit Ruto and stimulated Raila. Ruto knew how to win elections but his vanity made him vulnerable to Raila’s scheming genius. A Raila specialty and trade mark is turning weaknesses into strength which enables him to benefit from, and remain relevant in political crises. He makes governance difficult and benefits by creating his ‘peace’.

He did that with Kibaki, with Uhuru, and also with Ruto. His entry into the Ruto government was speeded up by the Generation Z uprising. Ruto’s failure to read the national mood led to Gen Z's action questioning his legitimacy and opened opportunities. Besides prompting former CS Fred Matiangi, to dream of being president in 2027, it enabled Raila to display brilliance in playing both sides; to benefit and still remain relevant. It forced Ruto to expedite ongoing deals with Raila in order to deflate the Gen Z balloon.

Raila contributed ODM men to Ruto’s ‘broad-based’ government and still insisted that the Gen Z agenda was his agenda because, he claimed, he had previously raised the same issues. He attracted attention. He likes being the centre of attention, leaves ‘allies’ in political traffic lights, and has ways of returning to ‘opposition’ leadership.

He left Kalonzo Musyoka during the Uhuru ‘handshake’ in 2018 and still convinced Kalonzo to join him in 2022. He has again left Kalonzo and the entire Azimio team gazing as he embraces Ruto to handle Gen Zs and gradually shift discussions from being about the Gen Z uprising to himself. Western ‘envoys’ pay homage to him.