William Ruto risks falling into the trap of not getting the truth

This is a situation whereby as a consequence of a leader amassing too much power, being perceived to prize loyalty over talent, and becoming allergic to facts, his underlings increasingly find themselves having to fudge figures in order to please the boss or to falsify their beliefs about specific policy measures. 

Ruto has a real danger of falling into this trap. Let’s start with Parliament. Open deliberations in Parliament serve an important informational function. They tell us what different representatives actually think, and might actually help improve suggested policies.

For example, if Parliament had bothered to honestly debate the Finance Bill 2024 we likely would not have had protests that resulted in the storming of the Parliament buildings. The same goes for the various policymaking units within the executive.

Being able to gather accurate information and conduct sound analysis is critical for successful policy implementation. Therefore, it should bother all thinking Kenyans that we seem to be permanently locked in a world where secretive deals, rather than the public impact of specific policies, are the primary drivers of policy choices. 

It is hard to cycle out of a dictator’s information problem. Once there is a perception that the only way to get ahead is to signal mindless loyalty, then it does not matter whether the leader himself prefers to have accurate information.

Furthermore, certain types of people who do not care about facts or sound analysis then self-select to join the administration.

All this to say that President Ruto should be careful about what he wishes for. The wages of total centralised power is total ignorance of reality.

The writer is a Professor at Georgetown University