Expectations, political realities as Raila carves out path to AUC chair

President Ruto's nomination of Raila Odinga for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship on Tuesday marks the beginning of a complex diplomatic effort within the continent's geopolitics. As a nation, we should unite in offering goodwill and prayers for his success.

However, as individual citizens, that's all we can do; the rest is up to the President to secure the seat. It’s important for Kenyans, especially Raila's core supporters, to manage their expectations.

The outcome has little to do with the welfare of Kenyans but rather the personal benefits Raila stands to gain and the political capital President Ruto may earn domestically. Notably, there are shifting dynamics in Luo Nyanza's local politics. The Kenya Kwanza visit to the Western and Nyanza regions has been strategically timed to coincide with Raila's sabbatical from local politics.

If this momentum continues into the 2027 General Election, the real challenge for President Ruto's grip on power will be the resilience of the Gen-Z wave for change. The remnants of the Azimio coalition seem irrelevant in the emerging political landscape.

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With that in mind, the key questions on many people's minds are: What does Kenya stand to gain if one of its own ascends to the AUC chairmanship? And what will be the return on investment for the taxpayer money used to support Raila's candidature?

The short answer to these questions is simple: nothing. As a country, we gain only basic bragging rights—nothing more. The real beneficiaries here are Raila and President Ruto, who both reap the political dividends from this arrangement.

If there's any doubt, consider what Kenya gained during Raila's term as the AU High Representative for Infrastructure Development in Africa—a position he secured through his handshake with former President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Moreover, several political, economic, and organisational factors limit the influence of any individual serving at the AU secretariat. Politically, the Assembly of Heads of State and Government is the supreme organ of the AU. This body is responsible for setting policies, establishing priorities, approving annual programmes, and monitoring the implementation of decisions. The AUC chairman simply carries out the Assembly's directives.

At the organisational level, all geopolitical institutions have inherent barriers that limit what any single person or country can achieve. For example, the East Africa region producing the next AUC chair is purely a political process within the regional body, with little to do with the individual candidates' capabilities. This is similar to processes at the United Nations, the European Union, and other regional bodies. According to Bretton Woods rules, the United States has the exclusive right to appoint the president of the World Bank, while the head of the International Monetary Fund is selected through a rotational process within Europe.

Senior positions in these regional or international geopolitical agencies are typically based on quotas, which can restrict the ability of their leaders to bring in the best talent. Often, junior positions are reserved for citizens of the host country. Given this context, the eight-point agenda Raila unveiled on Tuesday as his vision for the region is likely to have little impact on the final outcome.

Ultimately, the final decision will depend on the pre-existing political protocols and interests of the eight economic communities within the AU. Raila and his campaign team must avoid pushing their own agenda and instead focus on serving the interests of the individual economic blocs and member states. Meanwhile, the President may need to temper his domineering personality and reconsider his geopolitical affiliations to avoid jeopardising Raila’s candidacy.

Despite the political and organisational limitations in exercising power and navigating bureaucratic procedures, it is crucial for any leader of such a body to aim for a lasting legacy. If Raila succeeds, he will face numerous challenges that continue to plague the continent, even after 60 years of the AU's existence. According to the 2023 AU Handbook, the AU initially focused on eradicating colonialism and apartheid from its founding in 1963. Today, the organisation's priorities have shifted to socio-economic growth and development across the region.

The UN Economic Commission for Africa notes that the AU comprises at least eight sub-regional economic communities. These communities are tasked with implementing a regional integration agenda for their member states, operating on the principles of good faith and adherence to treaty obligations to ensure successful regional integration.

The key priorities across all economic blocs on the continent include trade and market integration, macroeconomic policy, free movement of persons, peace, security, stability and governance, and the harmonisation of sectoral policies. Each of these elements is a significant challenge on its own.

For example, the African Trade Report 2024, published by the African Export-Import Bank in June, reveals that intra-African trade accounted for only 15 per cent of the region's total trade in 2023, valued at approximately Sh25 trillion ($192 billion). A closer look at these trade flows shows significant disparities among the sub-regions. Southern Africa was the leading driver, contributing 41.4 per cent of intra-African trade. In contrast, West Africa, East Africa, North Africa, and Central Africa accounted for 25.7 per cent, 14.1 per cent, 12.4 per cent, and 6.6 per cent, respectively.

Overall, intra- and extra-regional trade in Africa declined by 6.3 per cent in 2023, totaling Sh169 trillion ($1.3 trillion). In recent years, the region has also seen significant shifts in trading partners, with Asia emerging as the primary destination for exports and source of imports.

These disparities suggest that strong political and economic undercurrents will shape the selection of the next AUC chair. Additionally, factors such as Anglophone versus Francophone and Arab versus Black Africa dynamics will play a crucial role in Raila’s journey—both in securing the position and in influencing the agenda to leave a meaningful legacy after his tenure in Addis Ababa.

For the rest of us, especially Raila’s core supporters, it’s wise to temper our expectations until the outcome is final. Managing our hopes will help us cope if the results are unfavourable. Unlike in domestic politics, there will be no 'maandamano' to vent frustration or anger over a loss.

Moreover, even if Raila succeeds in securing the AU seat, there would be little to no benefit at the individual or national level. That said, this column wishes the enigma success and resilience on the challenging journey ahead.