Will it be Trump or Kamala? Why we should care about the US poll

 

In four months, the USA will go to the polls. Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be the next US president. Should we bother with who will be the next US president?

Let’s start by speculating who will win. Until Joe Biden dropped out, we could have easily predicted the next US president. Some pundits argue Democrats played the long game, delaying his departure so that Republicans would focus their resources on the wrong target.

It’s like shooting a hyena then finding an antelope when you have run out of arrows. Joe Biden’s shadow will loom large as Kamala campaigns. Never mind she will be associated with his failures and successes. She will inherit his financial resources and networks.

And more money taps have opened. It’s now about translating that into votes. Does she have what it takes to win? Can she get out of Biden’s shadow?

She has been a senator, prosecutor, and vice president. Her background is a plus: Asian, American, and Black. It’s not clear why her Blackness dominates just like in Obama’s case. Both would be mzungu in Kenya. I keep wondering what color I am if the two are Black. Her diverse background will attract voters.

But her identity could be a factor. Will the USA get its first Black female president? Will she succeed where a white lady, Hillary Clinton, failed? My hunch tells me it will be hard, based on my six years in the USA Deep South.

The feeling that she got the nomination just because she was there might work against her. It does not help that some are calling her a diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) hire. This is heavily loaded and implies you get a job to satisfy DEI requirements, not competence. What of her educational background? She went to Howard University, the apex institution among the historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs).

Obama went through Harvard, an elite university. I will ask quietly if Obama could have won the presidency without going through Harvard. Kamala is being accused of being childless but has stepchildren. Lately heard of “childless cat ladies”? Will that backfire or stick in a country that has a solid conservative base? Her greatest strength is political experience but with no big successful initiative.

Her prosecutor background is being used to hit at Donald Trump. Shall voters see it as comical or take it seriously? Foreign policy might be her soft underbelly. Expect Republicans to come hard on US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the war in Ukraine, and other hot spots.

Notice how Republicans are trying to tie her to immigration and other hot-button issues? What of her opponent? He will taunt his four years in the White House and the rolling economy that followed and his stance against China. His solid political base is his greatest asset. Add his dalliance with nationalism. How will evangelicals vote given Trump’s conviction? Trump’s near-death experience and court cases may portray him as a martyr and stir his political base.

Overplaying it could backfire. Kamala’s reference to court cases may be seen as celebrating his suffering and could also backfire. Americans are nostalgic about Trump and that could be a political asset. His other strength is that he can say anything! Polls seem to show a statistically dead heat between the two. Will Kamala’s honeymoon last?

Will her vice president's choice make a difference? I would like her to choose Gavin Newsom as the running mate. He has an interesting connection to Trump. Find out. The running mate should compliment her, just as Joe Biden complimented the young Obama. It’s likely to be someone from a blue wall state, critical to stopping Republicans.

Will Republicans bring down the blue wall states, 18 of them that voted Democratic in presidential elections from 1992 to 2012? Trump was trying to break that wall by choosing J.D. Vance as the running mate. There is an interesting twist in Kamala’s racial background. She has Asian blood. J.D. Vance, Trump’s running mate, has an Asian wife. The winner will be determined by how well Americans will be nostalgic about Trumponomics compared with Bidenomics. Add voter turnout and which candidate will stir the emotions, connect with the voters, and demonstrate they can solve American problems.

Until Biden dropped out, Trump was leading. For now, let’s wait for Kamala’s choice of running mate and the end of her honeymoon. What we can’t dispute is that the polls will be expensive and entertaining. Should we care who wins? We should.

Both Republicans and Democrats have different policies towards Africa and Kenya. Some are good and others not. Think of immigration, a hot-button issue, and the number of Kenyans who live in the USA.

Think of foreign direct investment, trade, and foreign aid. Let’s end with a simple question: how would Republicans have reacted if they were in power and had the US-based Ford Foundation accused of sponsoring protests in Kenya?