Why Russia-Africa trade should worry Kenya

Russia, after facing sanctions from the West due to its illegal invasion of Ukraine, has turned to Africa, a continent it largely abandoned after the Soviet era. This quest for renewed relations culminated in the first Africa-Russia summit in 2019, where the Kremlin sought to extend its influence. However, over the years, it has become evident that this relationship is one where Russia exploits the continent in various ways.

One glaring example of this exploitation is the imbalance of trade. Russia's trade volume with Africa in 2022 was a mere US$18.4 billion, significantly lower than the continent’s traditional partners such as China (US$199 billion), Italy (US$76.3 billion), France (US$67.8 billion), the US (US$65.7 billion), and Germany (US$45 billion). Africa imports far more from Russia than it exports, creating a significant trade imbalance.

Although Russia is becoming a partner in Africa's oil and mining sectors, it lags far behind as an overall trading partner. According to the International Monetary Fund, less than 1 per cent of Africa’s exports go to Russia, compared with 33 per cent to the European Union. Additionally, African imports from Russia account for under 2per cent of its total imports, highlighting the minimal trade relationship compared to other global partners. This imbalance likely explains why African countries have shown tepid responses to Moscow’s strategic pivot. Only 17 African heads of state attended the 2023 Russia-Africa Summit, less than half of those at the 2019 summit.

Russia also exploits political unrest and discontent in coup-hit African nations. By capitalising on popular frustration and anger towards former colonial powers, Russia has entered countries where military coups have ousted governments seen as close to Western powers like France. In nations such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, Russia offers security assistance through Private Military Contractors (PMC), specifically the Africa Corps. In return, Moscow gains access to valuable minerals and other contracts, to the detriment of these African countries, which continue to struggle with poverty and instability.

Africa is rich in minerals, oil, and other resources, which come with significant political and legal challenges. These resources are crucial to global economic and national security, such as cobalt, used in electronics, and lithium, used in batteries. Russia thrives in countries with limited governance, signing mining deals through companies it controls. An EU Parliament study showed that Russia secured access to gold and diamonds in the Central African Republic, cobalt in Congo, gold and oil in Sudan, chromite in Madagascar, platinum and diamonds in Zimbabwe, and uranium in Namibia. According to the U.S.-based non-profit Democracy 21, the Africa Corps may have made about $2.5 billion through the African gold trade alone since invading Ukraine in February 2022.

Given these factors, Africa should be wary of trading with Russia, and countries like Kenya should not even consider welcoming Russia as a partner. The relationship is heavily skewed in Russia's favor, with significant trade imbalances and exploitative practices. Russia's involvement in politically unstable regions exacerbates existing issues, providing military support in exchange for resource exploitation, which leaves African countries with little benefit and continued hardship.

Russia's approach to Africa is opportunistic and self-serving, focusing on extracting value from the continent's resources while offering minimal in return. This dynamic only deepens Africa's economic vulnerabilities and political instability. In contrast, Africa's traditional trading partners provide more balanced and beneficial trade relationships, contributing more significantly to the continent's development and stability.

Therefore, Africa should prioritise strengthening ties with partners who genuinely support its growth and stability, rather than those who seek to exploit its resources. By avoiding engagement with Russia, African countries can better focus on building sustainable and equitable trade relationships that truly benefit their economies and populations. Without careful consideration, welcoming Russia as a trading partner could lead to long-term negative consequences for Africa's economic and political landscape.