Raila Odinga: Master of coalition governments, could be Kenya's de facto leader

We must disabuse our political elite of the misplaced notion that Kenyans are stupid. Gullible, yes, for that has been our failing since independence. 

Raila’s denial of a clandestine arrangement between Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza to form a coalition government stunned many, especially after ODM top honchos Wycliffe Oparanya, John Mbadi, Ali Hassan Joho and Opiyo Wandayi were nominated to join Dr Ruto’s cabinet, and got his blessings.

For all purposes and intents, ODM is now an affiliate of Kenya Kwanza; it cannot have its cake and eat it too. To argue that there is no written document to that effect is to insult our collective intelligence. 

Gen Z protests galvanised the two-timing politicians and moneyed class into regrouping to protect their wealth and property. Perhaps Gen Zs showed their hand too soon and triggered panic. Their protests started as grumbles against the Finance Bill 2024. The focus then shifted to MPs and later to Ruto.

At that point, it was not lost on the moneyed class that they would be next in the crosshairs. Unchecked, this was going to become a poor-versus-rich war, drawing sustenance from Pierre-Joseph Proudhon's conclusion that ‘property is theft’. The youths are acutely aware that their sorry states today are a result of too much having been stolen from them and their parents by those in government.  

Countrywide protests and ‘Ruto must go’ chants pushed him to the edge where Raila saw him tottering and decided to offer help. Vintage Raila probably saw Ruto as the weakest link that needed reinforcement, which only he could offer. After the braggadocio exhibited by Ruto, Kimani Ichung'wah and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, vowing that Raila will never be allowed anywhere near the seat of government; traps in State House and all that, the ease with which Raila sauntered into government attests to Ruto’s vulnerability. 

It has always been Raila’s wish that Ruto gets ejected from the government, which raises questions: Why would he then be the first to prop up a collapsing government, barring his quest for the AUC Chairmanship? What is Raila’s endgame? Has he ever truly wanted to be the president of Kenya, or does being in the opposition, latching onto government lapses serve him well? Has Raila, all along, been Kenya’s de facto president, which is why ambitious politicians, especially from Central Kenya detest him so much?

Kenya’s first-ever coalition cabinet was formed in 2002 after Raila’s NDP party joined the ruling Kenya African National Union. Raila was later to form another coalition with President Mwai Kibaki in 2008. In 2018, besieged President Uhuru Kenyatta secretly sought Raila out, which ended up in the famous ‘Handshake’ that estranged Deputy President William Ruto from Uhuru and caused so much bitterness in Jubilee. That bile gave Ruto and his troops enough salvo to throw at the ‘dynasties’ and craft the ‘hustler’ narrative that, unfortunately for him, has boomeranged and now haunts him. 

A very bullish Ruto, too confident just a couple of months back, found himself in a precarious situation out of which Raila pulled him. When Raila called for dialogue between Gen Z, the opposition, stakeholders and the government, he temporarily diverted attention from Ruto to himself, took a few hits, but somehow managed to defuse tension. Keen observers might have noticed there is a new spring and gait in Ruto’s walk after naming his second batch of Cabinet secretaries, mostly from the opposition. 

Even though they might not realise it, or admit it, Raila’s action has succeeded in defanging Gen Z. For, indeed, among the Gen Z, there are Raila loyalists who wouldn't challenge him. X is still abuzz with plans by the youths to congregate in Nairobi on August 8 for further protests. Truth be told, however, they no longer have the advantage of surprise. The target is forewarned, prepared and alert.