First-term curse: Why every new president faces a crisis right after being sworn-in

They swept into office with fanfare, bravado, and a show of power. Their carefully crafted speeches electrified the sell-out crowds, giving them hope and confidence in the incoming President.

The swearing-in ceremonies are typically held near the house on the hill, where the sweet aroma of power fills the air.

In Kenya, presidential inauguration ceremonies are a revered ritual, during which  Presidents-elect outline their promises and plans for service delivery in their first 100 days and term in office.

The expertly packaged promises inspire voters to sing and dance with joy, seeing them as the dawn of a new era.

As they unsheathe the ceremonial swords of power, they give hope to a nation that is striving for better services and a robust economy.

The new Presidents often exude confidence, boasting of how they will succeed where their predecessors failed.

However, a closer observation reveals that the all five Kenyan Presidents have faced major challenges during their first terms in office.

The Sunday Standard can report that the first-term challenges confronting President Ruto are not new to Kenya; they date back to the dawn of independence.

From the founding father, Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, who became Kenya’s first President in 1964, to his successor Daniel Arap Moi, who assumed power in 1978 and ruled for 24 years, to Emilio Mwai Kibaki, who took office in 2002 after ending Kanu’s four-decade rule, and Jomo Kenyatta’s son, Uhuru Muigai, who served from 2013 to 2022, and now President William Samoei Ruto, all have faced turbulent and challenging first terms that threatened their political careers.

This interesting pattern has puzzled political observers and voters alike. While Presidents exude confidence during their swearing in, they soon encounter headwinds after settling into State House and Harambee House. What derails their strategies? Do they take more than they can manage? Or is the first term simply jinxed?

Besides presidents Jomo Kenyatta and Moi, who ruled for 15 and 24 years respectively due to the advantage of the one party system, the others are limited to two terms of ten years, according to the constitution promulgated in 2010.

Although benefiting from the one-party rule constitution, both Jomo Kenyatta and Moi faced turbulent first terms.  Kenyatta’s government was rocked by the Shifta war in the Northern Frontier District, where a guerrilla war was waged against the government.

The conflict ended in 1968 following a diplomatic agreement between Kenya and Somalia, but not before heavy casualties. Kenyatta’s government was later plagued by political assassinations during the same term, including the murders of popular MP, JM Kariuki and Minister for Planning, Tom Joseph Mboya.

While Mboya was shot dead in broad daylight as he left a chemist in Nairobi, JM Kariuki’s murder remained mysterious after his decomposing body was discovered in Ngong forest. The two high-profile murders shook Kenyatta’s government to the core.

Then came Moi, who became the country’s second President following the death of Mzee Kenyatta in August 1978. Moi encountered political challenges but went on to rule the country for the longest period, 24 years, until his retirement in 2002.

Moi had only been in office for four years and was settling into the reins of power when disaster struck.

On August 1, 1982, a section of Kenya Air Force servicemen attempted to overthrow his government, resulting in a bloody confrontation with loyal forces that left many dead. He survived the attempted coup and tightened his grip on power.  Some of the scars from the putsch continue to haunt Kenyans.

The “first term one curse” became more pronounced after the 2010 constitution, introduced stricter electoral terms, including a two term limit for the President.

Kibaki was the first to experience this when he took power on December 29, 2002, while in a wheel chair, after defeating President Moi’s Kanu nominee, Uhuru Kenyatta, who later succeeded him in April 2013.

His inauguration ceremony was a spectacle to behold. Thousands of frenzied opposition supporters and newly elected leaders thronged at Uhuru Park in Nairobi to witness Kenya’s third President take the oath of office.

Kibaki had been elected on a National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) ticket, with Kijana Wamalwa as his Deputy.

In an electrifying speech, delivered from his wheelchair under the watch of his doctor, Dr Dan Gikonyo, Kibaki vowed that Kenya was finally free from Kanu after almost 40 years of rule. He promised to deliver a new Kenya, full of job opportunities boosted by economic growth, free education, and a lower cost of living. He also pledged to fight corruption. The crowd erupted in cheers.

Kibaki, however, ran into trouble in the third year of his first term when, in 2005, he suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the opposition during the referendum on a proposed constitution that anti-government politicians had rejected.

In the referendum voting held on November 21, 2005, Kibaki and his team voted for “Yes” while the opposition, led by Raila Odinga, voted for “NO”, defeating the president by astaggering 58 percent.

“The referendum vote sharply divided Kenya along tribal lines and humiliated President Kibaki. In great anger, he dissolved the Cabinet, excluding pro-Raila ministers. Kenya began to go in the wrong direction, culminating in the 2007 when post-election violence,” says Dr Jonathan Okendo, a political scientist and rights activist.

The violence erupted after the opposition presidential candidate rejected the election results, which declared Kibaki the winner in 2007, following his controversial swearing-in at night. In the ensuing chaos, 1,200 people were killed, and over 600,000 others displaced.

Kibaki’s first term was marked by political tensions with opposition leaders who had once been part of the Narc coalition but bolted after President Kibaki allegedly reneged on some post-election agreements. These disagreements left Kibaki limping until later in his second term, when he agreed to form a coalition government with Raila.

Kenya’s fourth President, Uhuru Kenyatta also had a jinxed first term in office. Sworn in on April 9, 2013, with William Ruto as his Deputy, Uhuru faced a rough start, struggling to settle and deliver on his promises.

His first term started on a rocky note, as he and Ruto still had pending cases at the International Criminal Court at The Hague, where they faced charges related to the 2007-2008 post-election violence.

“I sympathized with Uhuru and Ruto. They ruled the country but with their ears on the ground, to ensure they were safe from the ICC prosecutors,” says Nzia Nkala, a Kenyan policy analyst based in South Africa.

Although the case was finally thrown out, challenges remained for Uhuru.

It was during President Uhuru’s first term that Kenya ushered in devolution following the promulgation of the 2010 constitution. The implementation of devolution, which greatly excited Kenyans, came with its own set of challenges.

Uhuru had transferred 30 percent of the national tax revenue to the devolved units, but some MPs continued to fight him, insisting the number of counties should be reduced from the current 47 to 10 or 15.

Then insecurity set in, forcing the President back to the drawing board. He had taken office when the terror group Al-Shabaab was threatening Kenya, following the previous regime’s decision to send soldiers into Somalia in 2011 under the ‘Operation Linda Inchi’ programme.

On September 21, 2013, Al-Shabaab attacked Westgate Mall in Nairobi, killing up to 60 people and devastating the Jubilee government.

The terrorists struck again on April 2, 2015, when they invaded Garissa University College, killing 148 people, mostly students, in one of the deadliest terror attacks since the 1998 Nairobi bomb blast, which killed over 200 people.

It was also during President Uhuru’s first term that tensions began to emerge between him and his Deputy, Ruto. Their previously close relationship turned into suspicion and political animosity. They no longer wore matching shirts and ties at state functions, a situation that worsened during their second term.

Just like his predecessors, the first-term conundrum has caught up with Kenya’s fifth president, William Samoei Ruto.

President Ruto was sworn in, alongside his Deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, on 13th September 2022. His inaugural speech, laced with attacks on his predecessor’s administration, insinuated that the government had been mismanaged. He promised to improve things, with a keen focus on the interests of “hustlers”, declaring that the Kenya Kwanza government belonged to the common man.

During his campaign, Ruto promised to fix the economy, fight corruption, and end extrajudicial killings and forced disappearances.

However, President Ruto’s first-term problems began even before he completed 100 days in office. His decision to rush the controversial Finance Bill through the National Assembly, introducing various taxes that impacted workers’ pay, sparked outrage, leading to massive protests by Gen-Zs.

The protests and condemnations against the Ruto government were so widespread they threatened its existence. The situation only cooled when he convinced ODM leader Raila Odinga to help manage the crisis through the formation of a broad-based government.

But Ruto was not out of the woods yet. After Raila helped extinguish the Gen-Z fires, some Kenya Kwanza MPs turned on his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua. In a plot similar to the one he had with his former boss, Uhuru Kenyatta, Gachagua was accused of undermining the government and was soon embroiled in a political battle that led to his impeachment.

Ruto has also been involved in tense political and administrative clashes with his former boss, Uhuru, during his first term. It was not until two weeks ago that they seemed to have mended fences, following Ruto’s visit to the former Head of State’s Gatundu home.

Gachagua’s impeachment and the strained relationship with Uhuru have placed the President at odds with the Mt Kenya region.

But why do such crises arise in the first terms of Kenyan Presidents? Why the turmoil just when they are settling in to deliver on their campaign promises?

Dr Michael Ndonye, a senior lecturer at Kabarak University, believes political leaders lack concrete plans to implement their strategies, leading to failures in fulfilling their promises.

“The reason Kenya Kwanza has been wavering is that, while they had a strategy to win the 2022 elections, they seemingly lacked a clear vision (plan).

This is why they have been blowing unknown trumpets, tossing the country here and there, and exploring new ways to survive the tides they should have foreseen and planned for,” said Dr Ndonye in a column published in The Standard on Friday.

He adds: “Winning an election with a great strategy does not translate into satisfactory governance.” It remains to be seen how Ruto will navigate the remainder of his first term in office.