Political alliances based on tribe might end after Ruto leadership

On Friday, April 3, AD 33, before Jesus died at about 3pm, the book of Luke 23:12 says, “That day Herod and Pilate became friends—before this they had been enemies.” Their common interests brought them together.

When politicians who have been enemies collaborate, it raises suspicion because, either they are coming together to forge a sense of fulfillment among their followers or are out for good—the latter is a dream. There is a lot of nothingness, in the mere sense of fulfillment.

However, when a government collaborates with the community and private sector, it often signals something positive. In probability theory, such an event is called an atomic event because it can only have one outcome: A noble one.

Robert Greene’s second law of power, implores us to learn how to use enemies. He assures that enemies can be more useful than friends when co-opted to further one’s interests. We should not lose sight of the semantics in this law—the end game is to ‘further personal interests’.

Since 2002, the pattern of political collaboration has revealed that political coalitions, collaborations, and alliances have little to do with the interests of the people—the closest they come is to shape the perception of the country for the benefit of politicians. Patterns do not lie.

In 2027, it will be 35 years of political alliances and collaborations, if we use 2002 as our starting point. Political collaborations bring tribes together. Since 2002, politics has deceived us into believing that we are divided because we belong to different tribes and that having an all-inclusive government means having all tribes at the table—eating.

This political sedation has always made us feel accommodated whenever someone from our tribe is in government. For instance, when William Ruto recently included some opposition members in his Cabinet, the opposition regions calmed and said, “we are on the table.” The question is, who are ‘we’?

It is an empty fulfillment. But since they have proven to calm political temperatures and made citizens willingly lay their lives down for politicians, the approach inspires political collaborations.

To understand this, consider Karl Marx’s theory of historical materialism. In this theory, Marx imagined that societies pass through six stages: Primitive communism, slave society, feudalism, capitalism, socialism, and finally global, stateless communism. At least we know that we are in transition between capitalism and global stateless communism. Capitalism is too entrenched to go away, at least for now.

We should be interested in the last phase—the global stateless communism. At least we know, through experience, that the 2024 Gen Z protests in Kenya mounted a never-seen-before front that disrupted politics. They, as it turned out, do not recognise tribes—and that is why the Ruto, Uhuru, and Raila collaboration could be the last one in their generation. ‘Tribe’ as a unifying factor won’t work beyond 2032.

Political collaborations are not new. In the early 19th century, the US had the Whig Party, a political collaboration that significantly impacted opposition in the US. The Whig Party emerged from a coalition of National Republicans, Anti-Masonic Party members, and other groups opposed to President Andrew Jackson’s policies.

Although the party fronted interests that appeared people-oriented, such as economic development and social reforms, they predominantly benefited politicians and the elite.

The Whig Party in the US supported a strong legislative branch over a powerful executive to limit the influence of their political opponents. They also backed the Second Bank of the United States and higher tariffs to cater to the interests of wealthy industrialists and businessmen.

So, what comes out of the impending political collaborations between Ruto, Uhuru and Raila? It will satiate the country in the name of all tribes being included, but the interests are political—first for Ruto to win a second term and second to take care of the interests of Uhuru, Raila, and their close allies in the business of politics.

Dr Ndonye is a senior lecturer at Kabarak University’s Department of Mass Communication