Kalonzo has once-in-a-lifetime opportunity as Raila, Ruto disappoint

Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka is beginning to look good as possible president mainly because President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga look hazardous. The two ganged up to undermine the Gen Z uprising, which politically shook both men and to fix Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua through the impeachment saga which served to divert public attention from serious policy shortcomings. It enabled them to defend questionable Adani dealings a and vouched for Adani credibility even as information from India, Australia, and Europe pointed to Adani having serious integrity challenges. With Gachagua nursing impeachment wounds, no other likely contender comes close which leaves the Kalonzo free to prove his political mettle.

Kalonzo has to overcome previous disabilities, especially his image. Starting as a Mulu Mutisya protégé, he has to come out of the image that he needs someone to hold his hand. He became, as Kanu organising Secretary, an effective Moi operative in the late 1980s and was accused of having a hand in the February 1989 Kiharu by-election disaster in which a candidate with 780 votes, Jidraph Mwangi Mweru, was declared the winner over Julius Gikonyo Kiano who had over 16,000 votes.

When in August 1995 Kanu ‘youth wingers’ whipped Safina Party leader Richard Leakey in Nakuru, top Kanu officials Kalonzo and Mombasa Kanu supremo Sharif Nassir offered different explanations. While Nassir admitted that the mzungu had received a few strokes, Kalonzo claimed that Leakey had faked the beating in order to gain sympathy in the West. Kalonzo was one of the men who hoped to inherit Moi’s Kanu as a vehicle to the presidency in 2002.

Disappointed by Moi’s decision to anoint Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor, Kalonzo was among the Raila-led rebels in Kanu who joined the winning Kibaki-Wamalwa-Ngilu National Alliance of Kenya team to create NARK that overwhelmed Moi’s Kanu in December 2002 to usher in the Kibaki presidency. Although they all received key ministerial appointments, Raila-led power struggle in NARK about an MOU, created political instability leading to the 2005 Orange-Banana Referendum in which Kalonzo acquired the negative ‘Watermelon’ label.

Two new political parties called Orange Democratic parties emerged, with Kalonzo and Raila as leaders. In the subsequent 2007 general elections, Kibaki won narrowly, Raila was a close second and Kalonzo was third. As Kalonzo moved to join Kibaki as vice president, Raila had the support of Western powers in making Kenya ungovernable which led to the Nusu Mkate government. While the public was treated to protocol rivalry between Kalonzo and Raila as to who was more senior than the other, the Nusu Mkate power sharing led to the 2010 Constitution which set the stage for the Uhuru-Ruto presidency. 

Kalonzo appeared to have problems being his own man and fell under Raila’s long political shadow. He agreed to deputise Raila in the 2013 election and they lost to UhuRuto. He again deputised Raila in 2017 and once again lost, thereby acquiring the image of a perpetual loser. Appearing to be short-changed by Raila, Kalonzo tried to assert independence by making a surprising statement about being the most foolish man on earth if he again supported Raila.

Yet, in 2022, he could not escape Raila’s shadow and agreed to be an Azimio coalition principal, fronting Raila and Martha Karua to face Ruto and Gachagua. Azimio, set to win because it supposedly controlled State machinery, made such strategic mistakes as failing to recruit polling agents, mobilising voters, or addressing basic concerns of different voters. It was complacent.

Kalonzo was left hanging in Azimio’s fragmentation as Raila became defender of Ruto policies. This gave Kalonzo opportunity to escape his Kanu past and Raila’s shadow. But he still has problems of image, asserting himself, and being his own man. He thus needs to offer clear alternatives to Ruto’s seeming hazardous domestic agenda compounded by wishy-washy foreign policy. With no opposition challengers, Kalonzo can only mess up.