Climate struggles intensify as droughts double since 2005, Kenya Met Dept

Kenya is now highly vulnerable to drought.

Climate change has made events like the extreme drought that the country has been experiencing since 2020 stronger and about 100 times more likely.

This has been revealed in a new report by the Kenya Meteorological Department titled, “Climate Change Impacts in Kenya.”

The report paints a detailed picture of the climatic shifts and their cascading impacts, revealing a country grappling with rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and increasing extreme weather events.

In recent years, Kenya has faced frequent and severe droughts, with significant occurrences in 2006, 2010/2011, 2016/2017, and 2020–2023.

While studies vary on whether droughts have increased or decreased overall in East Africa since the 1950s, recent research indicates that droughts have doubled in frequency from once every six years to once every three years since 2005.

“We are witnessing the direct impacts of climate change. The prolonged and severe heatwaves, particularly in Tana River, Garissa, and Turkana counties, are a testament to this,” said Dr Joyce Kimutai, a climatologist at the Kenya Meteorological Department.

The report documents a notable rise in average temperatures across East Africa, ranging from 0.7 degrees Celsius to 1 degree Celsius between 1973 and 2013, primarily due to human influence.

In Kenya, the ramifications are evident. “Every year, despite Kenyans working harder, we are losing our capacity to produce food due to the impacts of climate change,” stated Dr Ahmed Idris, Secretary General of the Kenya Red Cross Society.

 “Last year, we faced a food crisis in July, a cholera outbreak in September, and a flood crisis in October. Climate change is an undeniable reality - a troubling reality. The time to address this crisis is now.”

The report also highlights the variability in rainfall patterns. Although there is limited comprehensive data on changes in heavy rainfall since the 1950s, specific events provide clear evidence of climate change’s impact.

For example, the short rainy season in the Horn of Africa in 2023 saw intensified rainfall, causing severe flash flooding in eastern Kenya.

This disaster led to over 300 deaths and displaced more than a million people. Conversely, the long rainy season has experienced a drying trend, complicating water resource management and agricultural planning.

Looking ahead, the report projects that temperatures in East Africa will continue to rise.

With global temperatures expected to increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, East Africa’s annual average temperature could rise by 0.6 degrees Celsius, above the 1994-2005 average.

 If global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius or 3 degrees Celsius, the increase could be 1.1 degrees Celsius, and 2.1 degrees Celsius, respectively. This will likely lead to more intense rainfall in most regions of Africa and expose future generations to significantly more heatwaves.

Dr Festus Ng’eno, Principal Secretary of the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change & Forestry, remarked, “It is crucial to prioritize equity in our climate initiatives, as vulnerable communities are the most affected by climate impacts. We must ensure that no one is left behind in our efforts to combat climate change.”

He added: “There is a need to increase funding for research that contextualises global model outputs, sector-specific costs of climate impacts, the cost of inaction, and the role of local and indigenous knowledge, among other factors, if we are to adequately adapt to impacts of the changing, especially at the local level.”

The report also addresses the impacts of sea level rise, predicting a global rise of 21–48 cm by the end of the 21st century compared to the 1980-1999 average. This rise poses a severe threat to Kenya’s coastal regions. The implications for Kenya’s economy and infrastructure are profound, given that coastal flooding can cause extensive damage to national parks and tourist sites, reducing revenue for both national and county governments.

The deterioration of critical ecosystem services in Kenya, such as water, food, and timber provision, air purification, and flood control, is another significant concern. Species richness along the Tana River basin is projected to reduce significantly with just a 2 degrees Celsius global temperature rise, with plants and birds being the most affected.

This deterioration is expected to worsen with further warming, potentially leading to a loss of up to 50 per cent of forests in protected areas.

The trend towards increasingly severe heatwaves in Kenya has led to rises in emergency department visits and hospital admissions. Informal settlements are particularly vulnerable, with increased child mortality and deaths from non-communicable diseases like cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses.

Additionally, climate change is predicted to increase the risk of malaria, with an estimated 75.9 million people in eastern and southern Africa at risk by 2080.

Agriculture, a cornerstone of Kenya’s economy, faces significant impacts from climate change. High temperatures and erratic rainfall threaten crop yields and livestock.

For instance, under a very high emissions scenario, wheat yields in Africa are projected to decline by 15 per cent by 2050. Similarly, heavy rainfall has led to flooded farmlands and degraded soils, reducing farm output.

Senator Hamida Kibwana emphasised: “It’s crucial to integrate coordinated climate adaptation strategies and policies that are sensitive to climate issues now. We must listen to communities and collaboratively create sustainable climate solutions. Legislators must enact laws to ensure a sustainable and resilient Kenya in the face of climate change.”