Is the US election really so close?

His questions stem from pollsters' troubled track record in recent elections and a potential overreaction to past failures.

The political establishment was blindsided in 2016 when Trump won despite trailing in polls, while Joe Biden's 2020 victory margin proved much narrower than predicted.

In 2022, Republicans secured only a slim Congressional majority despite forecasts of a "red wave."

"The 2020 presidential election was collectively the worst for pollsters in forty years and an embarrassment for many," Campbell said.

Trump's emergence on the political scene largely explains these polling mishaps. His supporters were consistently undercounted in 2016 and 2020, prompting polling companies to adjust their methodologies.

'Traumatic for pollsters'

History offers an intriguing parallel: In 1980, polls showed incumbent Jimmy Carter neck-and-neck with Ronald Reagan. Reagan ultimately won by 10 points, benefiting from a late surge while Carter lost support to a third-party candidate.

"I'm not saying that's going to be the model in 2024, but it is something to keep in mind," Campbell added.

Leading polling analysts openly acknowledged these challenges.

"No, you can't trust the polls... You can't safely assume that the candidate leading in the polls is going to win," wrote Nate Cohn, the New York Times chief political analyst and polling director.

Cohn explained that pollsters are working to correct systemic biases that emerged in the Trump era.

"It's hard to overstate how traumatic the 2016 and 2020 elections were for many pollsters. For some, another underestimate of Trump could be a major threat to their business and their livelihood."

However, he warned that while adjusting methods to better capture Trump voters, pollsters might now be underestimating Harris.