Beyond the handshake: How Raila peace deal with Ruto stands out

ODM leader Raila Odinga’s handshake with President William Ruto is unlike any other. He is enjoying more power and influence than in past deals, where his authority was more limited.

Political pundits argue that it bears some striking similarities to the cooperation he entered into with President Daniel arap Moi after the 1997 presidential elections, which lasted until 2002. During that period, they also shared government positions with President Mwai Kibaki.

In addition to rewarding his allies with powerful Cabinet positions, Principal Secretaries and other lucrative appointments, Ruto has also ensured that Raila enjoys the highest trappings of power.

President Kibaki was forced to share power with Raila in the Grand Coalition government, while Moi entered into a cooperation that saw Raila receive two cabinet slots and one assistant minister. In contrast, Ruto has given him four cabinet slots and around 10 PS positions, with more appointments expected in the coming weeks.

Though he lacks a physical office —sources in government indicate he will be receive one soon— Raila has everything at his disposal.

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The ODM leader is now receiving presidential treatment, with his schedule prioritised and an enhanced security detail. He also enjoys unrestricted access to State House and other key centres of power.

President Ruto has also taken it a step further by ensuring that Raila participates in state functions, such as welcoming Kings, Queens, and other important dignitaries visiting the country, as seen during the recent visit of the Dutch royals.

“Moi did the same with Raila and got what he wanted because the opposition became divided and weakened after NDP joined Kanu to form New Kanu, with Moi as the Secretary General,” says historian Prof Macharia Munene.

Mistreatment

The Ruto-Raila and Moi–Raila handshakes differ from the one Raila signed with President Kibaki in 2008. Despite being Prime Minister, Kibaki treated him with contempt in the Grand Coalition government.

Raila frequently complained of mistreatment by Kibaki, even though he was a co-principal in the government. When Raila sacked Ruto, his appointee as the Minister for Agriculture, Kibaki responded by using his power to reassign Ruto to the Higher Education docket, further fueling tensions. At one point, a frustrated Raila publicly vented his anger, demanding respect as a co-principal in government. He accused Kibaki of acting unilaterally without consulting him on key decisions.

“He’s dishing out new districts daily without my knowledge. What authority does he have to do that? They say the Provincial Commissioner is in Nairobi not here to receive me. There’s no toilet here. The ceremonial red carpet is half, yet we’re sharing this government. What kind of respect is this?” lamented Raila.

Unlike Kibaki, who was coerced into working with Raila in the 2008 coalition, Ruto actively sought his hand to help stabilize the government. This was after the June 2024 youth uprising, driven by high living costs and poor governance, had significantly threatened the administration.

“Ruto ndio alikuja kutafuta mimi. Sikuenda kwake vile hawa wanalalamika,” (It is Ruto who sought my assistance. I didn’t look for him as some of my friends are complaining), Raila said last week amid lamentations of betrayal from some youth and opposition leaders.

Political analyst Martin Andati, however, urgues that Raila is content because President Ruto has made deliberate efforts to make him feel valued as partner. But Andati points out that Ruto’s eyes are firmly fixed on the 2027 re-election campaign, which has already begun in earnest. 

“Despite having no official position in government, Raila is speaking at public events after Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, which shows that he’s second in the pecking order and that is simply pre-planned for scoring 2027 political points,” says Andati.

Raila, now officially referred to as Prime Minister, has also launched a campaign to popularize their newfound cooperation—marking a sharp contrast with his relationship with Kibaki, where he often complained of mistreatment by junior public officers. Last month, after signing the political pact between UDA and ODM at KICC, Ruto also said: “I will do everything within my power to ensure that Prime Minister Raila is respected both locally and internationally.”

Co-operation with Moi

President Moi was in his final term after the 1997 elections, as the amended constitution now allowed a president only two elected terms under Section 2(A). The amendment, passed in 1992 just before multi-party elections returned to Kenya sparked debate. Moi’s supporters argued the law should not be applied retroactively to his earlier terms, which began in 1978..

The combined opposition outnumbered Kanu in Parliament, but while opposition leaders were strategizing on how to frustrate the government, Raila surprised them by secretly striking a cooperation deal with Moi.

In 1998, his NDP party entered into a gentleman’s agreement with Moi’s Kanu. Over the next three years, Raila used this deal to influence the appointment of his Luo allies to high government positions.

Raila continued to receive exclusive treatment, traveling around Rift Valley with Moi’s political fixer, the late Mark Too, who introduced him to local grassroots leaders. Raila then rallied his MPs to bolster Kanu’s numbers in Parliament.

By 2000, the cooperation between KANU and NDP had blossomed into a merger, forming the New KANU party, with Moi as President and Raila as Secretary General of KANU.

In 1998, Raila was tasked with leading the constitution review process in Parliament, a responsibility he relished as the first chair of the Select Committee on the Constitution Review.

Alongside former Attorney General Amos, Raila played a key role in establishing the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission (CKRC) in 2000, under the leadership of Prof. Yash Pal Ghai.

In June 2001, President Moi asked Mark Too to resign as a nominated MP, as Uhuru Kenyatta was nominated to replace him and appointed to the Cabinet. As Raila expected to take over from Moi, he found himself sitting in the same Cabinet with Uhuru, the man Moi was preparing to succeed him.

To further entice Raila, Moi agreed to empower him and his people in Kisumu by transferring ownership of the Kisumu Molasses Plant to a Nyanza people-owned holding company. The plant, built by the government, was designed to produce spirits and ethanol from molasses sourced from nearby sugar companies.

Unaware of what lay ahead, Raila’s position and demeanor reflected a man who believed he was destined for bigger things. Moi entrusted him with significant power, positioning him as a key political player in his inner circle, with indications that he was being groomed to succeed him.

The harsh reality dawned on Raila, when Kanu held a National Delegates Conference in March 2002, where Raila became the party’s Secretary General, with Uhuru picked as one of the four vice chairman.

The December 2002 presidential elections were first approaching and shortly thereafter, Moi announced Uhuru as the Kanu candidate.

The cooperation between Raila and Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenya’s third president, was primarily focused on creating an equitable distribution of resources. However, this arrangement was heavily skewed in favor of the Nyanza region.

“My brother Raila and I are focused on leaving a legacy where young people have steady jobs, are able to access basic needs, and live in a country where all citizens are proud to be Kenyans,” Uhuru stated in 2020.

Unlike the current arrangement, the fourth president did not prioritize giving Raila significant government positions or a large share of state resources. It remains unclear where the current arrangement will lead, though some of Raila’s allies believe they should support President Ruto in 2027 in hopes of reciprocation in 2032.