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ODM leader Raila Odinga during celebrations to mark the party's 20th anniversary in Busia county, on March 1, 2025. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard]
As Raila Odinga embarks on high-level consultations with close allies and political strategists regarding his political direction, he must acknowledge that his political career is on the line and he must act to redeemhislegacy.
As a veteran opposition leader and five-time presidential candidate, he must carefully navigate his next political move. Rather than positioning himself for another presidential run, Odinga now faces a pivotal decision: to back one of his own within Azimio.
Odinga has been at the forefront of Kenyan politics for decades, with every election since 1997 featuring his name prominently. While his unwavering political presence has cemented his status as a democratic icon, voter fatigue has begun to take its toll. The 2022 elections demonstrated a shift in dynamics, with a younger electorate seeking new leadership and fresh approaches to governance. His recent AUC chairmanship loss has sent ripples through Kenya’s political landscape.
Instead of attempting another presidential bid, Odinga must recognise that his greatest political contribution now lies in succession planning. By endorsing a viable candidate from within Azimio, he can maintain his political legacy while ensuring the coalition remains strong enough to challenge Kenya Kwanza in 2027.
The biggest challenge facing Azimio is the lack of a clear successor to Odinga. While the coalition is home to seasoned leaders such as Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua and Hassan Joho, there has been no definitive move by Odinga to anoint a successor. This indecision has led to internal jostling, with key figures positioning themselves as the next opposition leader. If this vacuum persists, Azimio risks fragmentation, much like the NASA coalition before it, which ultimately weakened the opposition.
Backing one of his own ensures that Azimio remains intact and united. It also sends a strong message to his support base that the movement transcends individual ambition and is focused on long-term political goals. Odinga’s influence, though waning in some circles, remains significant within his core support base. If he were to identify and actively campaign for a successor, he would transfer his political capital to a candidate who can re-energise Azimio and appeal to a broader demographic. The 2027 election will likely feature younger, more dynamic candidates from both Kenya Kwanza and other emerging political forces. To counter this, the opposition needs a leader who can attract new voters.
A strategic successor must be electable, possessing strong national appeal and the ability to unite different political factions within Azimio. They must have political acumen, demonstrating the ability to navigate Kenya’s often volatile political landscape and negotiate effectively within the coalition. Youth appeal is crucial, as many young voters feel disconnected from the current political class. While fresh leadership is vital, experience in governance and coalition-building will be crucial.
Potential candidates such as Musyoka and Karua have the experience and networks to mount a strong campaign. However, Odinga must ensure his endorsement is not merely symbolic but backed by a succession strategy, including grassroots mobilisation, coalition alignment and financial support.
Following Odinga’s AU loss, Kenya Kwanza has already begun shaping a narrative of political irrelevance. The ruling coalition is likely to frame him as a leader whose time has passed, reinforcing the perception that his era has ended. If he attempts another presidential bid, this argument will gain further traction. By stepping back and endorsing a new candidate, Odinga can flip this narrative. He can position himself as a kingmaker rather than a perpetual candidate, demonstrating that his political influence remains powerful even without directly contesting. This move would also make it harder for Kenya Kwanza to use his AU loss against him, as he would be seen as a statesman focusing on guiding next generation of leaders.
Odinga’s contributions to Kenya’s democracy are undeniable. His efforts in constitutional reforms, electoral justice, and governance have shaped the country’s political landscape. However, true political legacies are not built solely on personal victories but on ensuring continuity. Hislegacy will be far more enduring if he is seen as the architect of a successful transition rather than as a leader unable to pass the baton.
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The Standard Group Plc is a
multi-media organization with investments in media platforms spanning newspaper
print operations, television, radio broadcasting, digital and online services. The
Standard Group is recognized as a leading multi-media house in Kenya with a key
influence in matters of national and international interest.
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